Sky Bet Championship: The permutations for the final day of the Championship
The Sky Bet Championship reaches its conclusion this weekend. Tom Carnduff looks at the permutations for the play-offs and relegation.
Whilst Wolves have been crowned champions of the Sky Bet Championship but there is still a lot to play for at both ends of the table.
The race for automatic promotion is far from over as Cardiff and Fulham will be hoping for a spot in the Premier League, whilst Preston and Derby are aiming for a play-off spot.
The battle to avoid the drop sees five teams in the running for the final two places, joining Sunderland in relegation to the third tier.
Tom Carnduff looks at the permutations for the final day of Sky Bet Championship action and assess which side will prove victorious in each scenario.
Sky Bet Championship
Already promoted
Wolves (Champions)
Already in the play-offs
Aston Villa
Middlesbrough
Already relegated
Sunderland
Race for automatic promotion
Fulham's victory over Sunderland on Friday night moved them ahead of Cardiff, but less than 24 hours later the Bluebirds were back in pole position after they secured a win over Hull City.
Cardiff City will be promoted if:
- They beat Reading at home on the final day of the season (Sky Bet odds: 4/9)
- If they match Fulham's result against Birmingham City
- If Fulham fail to win (Sky Bet odds: (draw) 11/4 - (Birmingham win) 4/1)
Fulham will be promoted if:
- They beat Birmingham City and Cardiff City lose to Reading. (Sky Bet odds: 10.6/1)
- If they draw with Birmingham and Cardiff lose to Reading. (Sky Bet odds: 25/1)
Verdict:
Cardiff are firmly in the driving seat here and should have enough to secure automatic promotion to the Premier League.
They face a Reading side who have lost their last five away from home, and are without a win since they beat Preston at the beginning of April.
Plus, Paul Clement's men do have a chance of relegation to Sky Bet League One, a small chance, but a chance regardless.
Fulham are on an incredible unbeaten run that has fired them into automatic contention, and they travel to face another relegation-threatened side in Birmingham.
Cardiff know that, and whether the nerves will show remains to be seen.
Regardless, you'd be backing 2/7 favourites Cardiff to seal a top-two spot here given the team that they are facing.
Race for the play-offs
Aston Villa are already guaranteed a spot in the play-offs, as are Middlesbrough after their win over Millwall. They'll be joined by Cardiff or Fulham (depending on who finishes third).
Derby County will secure a play-off spot if:
- They beat Barnsley (Sky Bet odds: 4/7)
- They better Preston's result
- They match Preston's result
- They and Preston lose but Millwall fail to win with a big enough score to swing the nine-goal margin
Preston will secure a play-off place if:
- They beat Burton and Derby lose to Barnsley (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
- Derby draw with Barnsley and they beat Burton with a ten-goal swing in their favour
Millwall will secure a play-off spot if:
- They beat Aston Villa with Preston failing to win and Barnsley beat Derby, whilst Millwall have a ten-goal swing in their favour
Verdict:
It will take an absolute miracle for Millwall to feature in the play-offs after their defeat to Middlesbrough, but they've had a fantastic season regardless.
Derby have themselves in a great position following recent results and have their fate in their own hands, with a win over Barnsley enough to do it.
Their superior goal difference will also help massively, meaning that picking up anything in their last game should be enough to get them over the line.
Derby are 1/10 favourites to beat Preston and Millwall to that top-six spot, and should do so on Sunday.
Relegation to Sky Bet League One
Sunderland are already relegated and two of any five teams will be joining them in the third tier.
Bolton Wanderers will be relegated if:
- They lose to Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 3/1)
- If one of Burton Albion or Barnsley better their result on the final day
- They beat Forest but both Burton and Barnsley win whilst Birmingham prevent a four-goal swing
Burton Albion will be relegated if:
- They lose to Preston North End (Sky Bet odds: 8/15)
- If Barnsley match their result when they face Derby County with Birmingham and Reading picking up at least a point
- Barnsley, Birmingham and Reading matching their result
Barnsley will be relegated if:
- They lose to Derby and Burton pick up at least a point
- If they lose to Derby and Bolton Wanderers win (Sky Bet odds: 2/1)
- If they draw with Derby and Bolton or Burton win
Birmingham City will be relegated if:
- They lose to Fulham with Burton and Barnsley both securing victories
- If they lose to Fulham by two or more goals with Bolton beating Nottingham Forest by two or more goals alongside wins for Burton and Barnsley
Reading will be relegated if:
- They lose to Cardiff whilst Birmingham pick up at least a point against Fulham with two of Barnsley, Burton or Bolton all winning (although Bolton will need a 14-goal swing in their favour) (Sky Bet odds: 50/1)
Verdict:
The race to avoid relegation looked all-but-over until results at the weekend changed everything and dragged teams back in.
Victories for Burton and Barnsley pushed Bolton back into the relegation zone, with Birmingham and Reading also having a chance of dropping down a division.
That said, it'd take some complex outcomes to pull the latter two into Sky Bet League One.
Despite Bolton's current position, they do have the 'easiest' fixture of the lot and might expect Burton and Barnsley both to pick up nothing at promotion hopefuls Preston and Derby.
Bolton are 13/8 to stay up and I'd be tempted to back that given the value.
Burton may have had a revival in recent weeks, winning their last three league games, but they're starting to pay for earlier poor form and have to win at Preston.
They can take confidence in Preston's relatively poor home form, but North End know a play-off spot could be theirs with victory.
I think Bolton might do it and stay in the division. Backing Sunderland, Barnsley and Burton all to be relegated as a treble looks tempting at 7/4.
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Page last updated at 1045 BST 02/05/2018