With winners in the last two previews, Tom Carnduff is searching for more value in his look at the Sky Bet EFL.
Recommended bets
1pt Bristol City (-1 handicap) to beat Wigan at 14/5
1pt Kamil Grosicki to score anytime in Hull v Reading at 4/1
1pt AFC Wimbledon (-1 handicap) to beat Accrington at 9/2
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Bristol City v Wigan
Bristol City were looking like they would fall out of the play-off contention, that was until back-to-back victories threw them back into the top-six.
It's not just the points gained, but the fact that they have come against Sheffield United and Middlesbrough that made it the more impressive. The Blades are aiming for automatic promotion while Middlesbrough are play-off rivals.
They have a great opportunity to make it three in three as they welcome a struggling Wigan side who are battling against the drop.
It's not just their current league position, but also their away form that makes it an uphill battle for them going to Ashton Gate.
Paul Cook's side have won just one of their 19 games on the road. A six-point return from a possible 57 gives them the worst away record in the worst record in the Sky Bet EFL, the joint-second worst in England's top four tiers.
They were hammered 3-0 by Blackburn in their last away game, while they were also beaten by two goal margins at Nottingham Forest and West Brom.
They were also beaten by at least two goals against promotion-chasing sides in Preston, Sheffield United, Middlesbrough - highlighting how they don't perform well against the teams at the top.
Combine that with the fact that the Robins have hit two goals in each of their last four home wins and it's clear to see that everything points towards a straightforward win for the side in red.
The best price of even money, and even the general price of 10/11, looks well worth taking on Bristol City winning this one, but with 14/5 available on the -1 handicap, it's worth backing Lee Johnson's side to win with a margin.
For what it's worth I still believe that Wigan will stay up, regardless of what happens here. Their home form is excellent and that has helped to keep them out of the division's bottom three.
However, their away form has to improve if they are to steer clear of trouble in the final weeks. The wait will have to go on because Saturday will likely see little joy.
Best bet: Bristol City (-1 handicap) to beat Wigan at 14/5
Opta facts
- Bristol City have lost one of their last seven home league matches against Wigan Athletic (W3 D3 L1), a 0-1 defeat back in January 2003.
- Wigan are looking to complete a league double over Bristol City for only the second time, also doing so in the 2002-03 season.
- Bristol City boss Lee Johnson is winless in four managerial encounters with Wigan boss Paul Cook (P4 W0 D3 L1)
- Wigan are looking to keep consecutive league clean sheets for the first time since April 2018 in League One; they haven’t done so at Championship level since February 2017 under Warren Joyce.
- Bristol City have won five of their last seven home Championship games in April (D1 L1).
- Wigan have won fewer away Championship points than any other side this season (6) – last season, they won the most in League One (51) when they won the division.
Hull v Reading
They're an outside bet for the play-offs, but Hull will have still enjoyed a very positive season even if they miss out of the top-six.
Nigel Adkins' side looked like relegation candidates at the start but strong form in the middle of the season fired them up the table. They're steadied since then but one thing that has remained is their strong home record.
The Tigers have the tenth-best home record in the division, although it has significantly improved in the second part of the campaign. They are now unbeaten in their last ten in front of their own supporters, seven of which have been wins.
Two stand-out stars in this side have been Jarrod Bowen and Kamil Grosicki, with the win duo key to Hull's current fortunes. While Bowen grabs the headlines, and rightly so, Grosicki has still more than played his part.
That includes a brace last time out for the Polish international, meaning that he has now been directly involved (goals and assists) in 18 games for his side this season.
Bowen is available at a best price of 17/10 with Betfair, although the general price of 6/5 reflects his goal-scoring exploits more. If Hull are to score, there's a good chance Bowen is involved.
That said, Grosicki has had more than his fair share of involvement and that's why there is appeal in taking the 4/1 price available on a goal for him anytime against a Reading side who are poor on the road.
It's worth noting that all of his goals this season have come against sides at the bottom end of the division. When Hull are in games when they are largely on the front foot, Grosicki has shown that he is capable of striking.
In terms of the result, Hull look fantastic value at a price of 10/11 to win this game and continue their strong run at the KCOM Stadium. If, and it's a huge if, they are to push towards and break into the top-six this season, their form at home will have to play a key part.
For that extra bit of value, Hull -1 on the handicap is 12/5. Five of their seven victories on this current run at home have come by two or more goals, while two of Reading's last three defeats away have also been on the road.
The Asian Handicap also has the Tigers steady at -0.5, although with a slight shortening of price, so it's worth going for a home victory by at least two goals in this contest.
Best bet: Kamil Grosicki to score anytime at 4/1
Opta facts
- Hull are unbeaten in five home league matches against Reading (W2 D3 L0) since losing 1-2 in March 1994.
- Reading haven’t completed a league double over Hull since the 1986-87 season – they won 3-0 in this season’s reverse fixture.
- Hull have already won five more points this season (54) than they managed in the entirety of the 2017-18 season (49).
- Reading have failed to score in six of their nine away matches under José Manuel Gomes in all competitions.
- Hull have scored twice or more in nine consecutive home league matches – they last had a longer run between January and May 1933 in the Third Division North (11 in a row).
- Reading won 18 points in 20 Championship under Paul Clement this season (W4 D6 L10) – they have won 21 points in 16 games under current boss José Manuel Gomes (W5 D6 L5).
AFC Wimbledon v Accrington
AFC Wimbledon were a side who looked relegated at the mid-point of the season, but a run of four wins in their last five games has put them on the verge of a potential great escape.
Wally Downes' men are only out of the safety places on goal difference, although their current form gives them a lot more hope than some of those around them.
One of those teams also looking to avoid the drop is Accrington, who are two points above the drop zone after a run of three consecutive defeats.
Their away form hasn't been great either. Five of their last six games that have ended in defeat on the road have been by two or more goals. That includes a 5-2 hammering by Burton in their last trip.
For Wimbledon, they've been able to score goals in recent weeks. They've scored at least twice in five of their last eight games both home and away, while their recent home win over promotion hopefuls Doncaster was by a two-goal margin.
A 6/4 price on a home victory is decent enough value, but the 9/2 available for Wimbledon to win by two or more goals is the avenue to explore in a game such as this.
Four of Accrington's last five defeats have been by at least two goals, showing they are a defence which can conceded on more than one occasion.
In Wimbledon, they are coming up against a side who are playing with confidence, and that's reflected in their results. Playing at home, against a fellow relegation rival, will be all the motivation they need and they're capable of capitalising on Accrington's poor run.
With the price available, it's worth going on the handicap markets in this game too.
Best bet: AFC Wimbledon (-1 handicap) to beat Accrington at 9/2
Opta facts
- AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in their last four home games against Accrington (W2 D2), including a 1-0 victory in the 2016 League Two play-off semi-finals, Tom Beere scoring a dramatic stoppage time winner in the first leg.
- Accrington Stanley have only won one of their last six games against AFC Wimbledon (D2 L3), this after winning six of their first seven (D1).
- AFC Wimbledon have only lost one of their last six games in League One (W4 D1), keeping four clean sheets in this run.
- Accrington Stanley have failed to score in seven of their last 11 away games in League One (W2 D2 L7).
- Joe Pigott has been directly involved in eight goals in his last eight league games for AFC Wimbledon (five goals and three assists).
Grand National
It's one of the big racing events of the year as the Grand National takes place at Aintree. Click on the picture above to view our full guide along with our expert's selections.
Grand National Jargon Buster!
A bit puzzled by some of the racing terminology surrounding the Grand National? Ed Chamberlin explains all you need to know...
Odds correct at 1340 BST (04/04/19)