Sky Bet Championship: Best bets and match previews for fixtures on Saturday June 20
After three months with no fixtures, the Sky Bet Championship returns on Saturday and Tom Carnduff picks out his two best bets for the TV games.
Recommended bets
1pt Brentford to beat Fulham at 13/8
1pt Filip Krovinovic to have two or more shots on target in West Brom v Birmingham at 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
West Brom v Birmingham
- 15:00 BST on Sky Sports Football
One of the biggest things to remember for this third part of the season is that games being played at 3pm on a Saturday can now be broadcast on television.
That means that we are able to watch West Brom continue their title push in a clash with local rivals Birmingham. A West Midlands derby following a West London derby completes perfect fixture selection by the broadcaster for the returning day.
Unlike the early kick-off though, the home side are well fancied for victory here with the Asian Handicap currently having them at -0.75. It could well be one of those fixtures at this point in the season where one team with something to play for brushes aside another sitting in mid-table.
Birmingham are actually eight points clear of relegation but they shouldn't end up dropping down to Sky Bet League One, even with a total of 27 points left to play for. Those at the bottom simply have too much to do to realistically threaten the Blues' Championship status.
The Blues' remaining fixture list isn't actually too bad with just three teams in the current top-eight left to play. They also have four fixtures against sides currently battling to avoid the drop.
For West Brom, they still have Brentford and Fulham to play but their fixture list also sees them largely avoid those teams who will be in and around the promotion mix. Sealing promotion will likely be decided by winning the majority of games like this as opposed to putting all their focus into the contests against those near them.
It's why we should expect to see a Baggies victory here as they look to hit the ground running. Friendlies are a matter of personal preference, but holding fixtures against other teams will have helped them to get back up as close to match fitness as possible.
But there isn't enough appeal in taking West Brom's price for victory as a single. Even the 6/4 on the home side to win on the -1 handicap isn't big enough for returning weekend; we could well see a low-scoring contest where the hosts win by the single goal.
Instead, the best bet in this game comes from the stats market and backing Filip Krovinovic to have at least two shots on target. He has flourished in a central midfield role since Slaven Bilic elected to switch his 4-2-3-1 formation for a 4-3-3 at the end of January.
Despite dropping back from the attacking midfield position, Krovinovic hasn't lost his threat with a total of 16 shots in the five games in his new role. If Bilic decides to stick with the 4-3-3, as has been hinted during the break, Krovinovic will get the nod in the middle.
There is some concern that he could be the one to drop out if they go back to 4-2-3-1 but the 5/1 available on the midfielder having two or more shots on target is well worth risking if he does continue starting, as he has done for the majority of the season.
Krovinovic may only have two goals on his tally but he has been underperforming on his xG. The amount of shots he has been posting, particularly in 2020, suggests that he should have found the net on more occasions.
West Brom have a number of selection headaches across the pitch for this game but it's a situation that most managers would like to be in. Krovinovic will be involved in the decisions that will be made, but he should start if they carry on playing in the 4-3-3.
Against a Birmingham side with little to play for, West Brom should enjoy the large majority of the chances as they were doing prior to the break. They outshot Preston 21-5, Bristol City 17-7 and Nottingham Forest 18-8 in 'recent' fixtures before the season stoppage.
With 5/1 available, it's worth backing Krovinovic to be among those opportunities and finding the target on multiple occasions.
Best bet: Filip Krovinovic to have two or more shots on target at 5/1
Opta stats
- West Bromwich Albion are unbeaten in seven matches against Birmingham in all competitions (W5 D2) since a 2-0 defeat in October 2006.
- Birmingham City have won just one of their last eight league visits to West Brom (W1 D3 L4), a 3-2 win in August 2005.
- West Brom are winless in their last two league games (D1 L1), failing to score on both occasions – they last went three consecutive matches without scoring back in December 2017 in the top-flight.
- Only Hull (11) are currently enduring a longer winless run amongst current Championship sides than Birmingham City (5 – D4 L1).
- West Brom’s Kamil Grosicki has been directly involved in six goals in four league starts against Birmingham City (3 goals, 3 assists).
- No Championship team has scored more goals via corners this season than Birmingham City (13), with five of their last 15 league goals coming via a corner.
Fulham v Brentford
- Saturday at 1230 BST on Sky Sports Football
Sky Sports couldn't have picked a better fixture for us to welcome back the Sky Bet Championship season. Fulham and Brentford both sit in the play-off places and will hold onto slim hope that they can close the gap between themselves and the top-two.
Fulham sit six points adrift of West Brom in second; Brentford's gap is ten points. The hosts are the ones who pose the biggest threat to Leeds and the Baggies at the top.
We can't dismiss Brentford's automatic chances but we have to work in game swings as opposed to points in the final part of the season. The Bees need to find a four-game swing over West Brom or Leeds over the next nine fixtures; if either win just three then they will have to post seven victories.
It's a big ask and their main concern will be securing their play-off position. Just five points separates them and seventh; they won't want to let a good position slip away with some poor performances and results following the break.
It's remarkable how many games are at 0 or -0.25 on the Asian Handicap in the Championship this weekend. The money is undecided when it comes to results and this fixture falls into that category.
Both of these sides had fairly similar results prior to the break and we can't avoid looking at those games, but it was so long ago that these results no longer make up form. Fulham sit 10th in the form charts over the past five games while Brentford are in 13th. However, the Bees did hammer Sheffield Wednesday 5-0 in their last competitive outing.
It's difficult to predict how this game will go given the fact we haven't seen either in action for over three months. Some teams will react well and hit the ground running, others won't, but it should be noted that results this weekend won't necessarily define the rest of the season.
That said, anything but a Fulham win will have a significant impact on the automatic promotion race. A draw combined with victories for West Brom and Leeds would see the gap extend to nine points; a loss being even more damaging.
Brentford secured bragging rights with victory earlier in the season as Bryan Mbeumo's first-half strike separated the two sides. The winger has 14 on his tally this season and will be viewed as one of Brentford's main attacking threats; he also scored two goals in the two games before the break.
Some will fancy Brentford based on their 3-2 friendly victory over Arsenal last week but the results in those contests should be dismissed. A number of Championship teams were successful over Premier League opposition; Nottingham Forest beat Wolves while West Brom won at Old Trafford against Manchester United. They are solely there for fitness purposes.
This game will essentially come down to who is the better team and who is better prepared following a lengthy spell without competitive action. With the Asian Handicap giving nothing away, and with us being left to speculate a fair bit on what could happen, perhaps this is the one weekend where xG and xPTS should be viewed with more importance.
Of course, it is merely a guide in terms of performance and isn't considered the above all statistic. Having attended a football tactics conference a few months ago, those in the industry know that it is a metric that divides opinion but is one they pay attention to.
When it comes down to that, Brentford beat Fulham in most areas. The forecast charts also have them finishing above Fulham in third; victory here will go a long way in achieving that goal and becoming the 'top seed' for the post-season play-offs.
Both sides are equally priced for victory, with Brentford taking slight favouritism with some firms, and it's better to side with the away team here; especially if the trend of away teams winning carries over from the Bundesliga.
It's the perfect fixture to welcome back England's second tier and Brentford seem well equipped to ensure that it concludes with the perfect result.
Best bet: Brentford to win at 13/8
Opta stats
- Fulham have won just one of their last 18 home games against Brentford in all competitions (D10 L7), a 1-0 victory back in April 1990.
- Brentford are looking to complete a league double over Fulham for the first time since the 2014-15 season.
- Fulham have won more points at home this season than any other Championship team (38).
- Fulham have registered 506 sequences of 10+ passes in open play this season, 153 more than the next highest side which is Brentford (353).
- Brentford have won just two of their last 10 away games in the Championship (D4 L4).
- Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic, who is the Championship’s leading scorer this season (23 goals), has won more points with his goals than any other player in the competition in 2019-20 (23 pts won).
Odds correct at 1200 BST (18/06/20)
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