Should Burnley upturn be such a surprise?
Although things can change quickly in football, time still seems to move slowly.
For instance, Sean Dyche was dismissed less than two weeks ago following a dispiriting defeat to Norwich that looked to have sealed the relegation fate of Burnley. In that time, the Clarets have moved out of the Premier League relegation zone.
In gaining seven points from a possible nine in their last three fixtures under interim coach Mike Jackson, Burnley are now favoured over Everton for safety by the bookmakers and have a much-reduced 32.4% chance of relegation per Infogol's latest probabilities.
It's a turnaround few envisaged after Dyche was let go, with an overarching notion that nothing more was possible with the personnel available. Now, it appears that survival is not only possible with this group; it is probable.
A feeling of freedom
Clearly, Burnley have been offered more freedom to attack in their upturn in form.
While high expected goals (xG) totals of 2.08 and 1.72 against Everton and Norwich were mainly a by-product of desperation, recent post-Dyche performances have shown a more structured approach to creating scoring opportunities.
The Clarets are yet to trail in the three games since, offering us a chance to see exactly how Burnley intend to approach matches under their caretaking coaches without game state playing as much of a part.
Recording 1.97 and 2.77 xG respectively against West Ham and Southampton was an impressive start, one that was followed by a very efficient 1-0 win over Wolves on Sunday. The fact that Burnley created seven non-penalty 'big chances' in those three fixtures shows their newfound enterprise.
Perhaps we shouldn't be so surprised that Burnley could have been dangerous going forward, though.
After all, Wout Weghorst is a significant upgrade on January departee Chris Wood, a similar goal threat that is far more capable of bringing teammates into the game.
Dwight McNeil has proven himself to be an outstanding chance-creator in previous seasons and has been unlucky to only record one assist from 4.48 expected assists (xA) this term.
Maxwel Cornet has been a star when fit, too, averaging 0.43 actual goals and 0.29 expected goals (xG) per 95 minutes in limited time this term. His absence might well have had an influence on Burnley's lower xG total at the weekend (xG: BUR 1.27 - 0.65 WOL).
It adds another dimension to a team that previously had few ways to win, often relying on avenues such as set-pieces and solid defensive efforts to gain points, not without its own merit with a spine that includes Nick Pope, James Tarkowski and the currently injured Ben Mee.
Those traits alone have their own perks in competition.
Competitive Clarets
Aside from the almost annual 5-0 defeat to Manchester City at the Etihad, Burnley are regularly 'in' games. If there is something that should translate from the Dyche era, it is competitiveness.
Burnley's rolling xG averages for the 2021/22 campaign do not display the large chasm between for and against trendlines that relegation contenders typically do.
Indeed, the difference has narrowed recently.
That is a consequence of remaining competitive. The Clarets have only lost the xG battle by a margin of 1.0 or more on four occasions since the turn of the year.
Burnley's opponents in those matches were Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City.
The powers that be at the club gambled on that competitive nature continuing, making a managerial change that looked a huge risk. It has resulted in huge reward.
With Watford to come on Saturday, there is now a real chance that Burnley can pull off what was impossible, became possible and is now probable - quite the transformation in the space of seven days.