Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Sheffield United or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Sheffield United picked up their fourth win of the campaign in midweek when beating Aston Villa 1-0 at Bramall Lane, meaning that they are now 12 points from safety.
I am by no means suggesting that they can pull off what would be the greatest of great escapes, but it appears that they are playing with the freedom you expect to see from a team certain of their fate.
This could be a good thing moving forward, and could see them pick up points at a rate that they haven’t done since before the enforced break last season.
Kick-off time: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Home 11/4 | Draw 9/4 | Away 21/20
The Blades are difficult to beat
While they sit in the relegation zone in both the actual table and in Infogol’s expected goals (xG) table, the Blades have been a tough beat this season, losing by a single goal in 14 of their 21 defeats.
That shows you just how difficult they make it for their opponents, no matter their predicament, and they face a Southampton side who are in worst form than them, so will fancy their chances of getting another positive home result.
It wasn’t long ago that Southampton’s twitter account tweeted a ‘stop the count’ joke, as the Saints were top of the Premier League table.
Many wouldn’t have foreseen their drastic nosedive in form, but the underlying data at the start of the season didn’t back up the strong results, so a downturn of sorts was expected in the analytics community.
Southampton's drop expected
Now 14th in the league table and just seven points above the relegation zone, they could be a bet for the drop given current form and performances.
Let’s not forget, they have picked up just one point from their last nine league games, scoring just five goals. That is relegation worthy form.
From an xG standpoint, they are now in the area of the table that their performances have warranted, with the creation of chances their Achilles heel this season, mustering a lowly 1.02 non-penalty expected goals for (xGF).
Only five teams rank worse in that metric, and even against what is likely to be a makeshift Sheffield United defence, I think it’s likely that they will struggle to create opportunities.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Fortunately for Saints, Sheffield United are unsurprisingly one of the teams below them in terms of non-pen xGF, with the Blades averaging 0.88, so it is fair to suggest that chances could be few and far between at the Lane.
Saints too short to back
Both sides will have this down as a game they can win, but I don’t think there is as much between the teams as the prices available would suggest.
Southampton are priced as 11/10 favourites generally, and that is just too short for a team winless in nine league games, and a side that don’t create anywhere near enough to win matches regularly.
The Blades will continue to do as they do, which is fight until the end, and I like their chances of avoiding defeat in this one, with goals expected to be few and far between.
Chris Wilder’s side shouldn’t be such a big price, meaning I see value in getting them onside in the double chance market. Sky Bet have boosted SHEFFIELD UNITED or DRAW AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS to an industry leading 5/4, which looks a solid bet to me.
Sheffield United v Southampton best bets and score prediction
- Sheffield United or Draw and Under 3.5 Goals at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Sheffield United 1-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 0945 GMT (05/03/21)
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