It'll be a tense Saturday evening at the Amex but Paul Higham thinks Brighton may just pinch all three points against Newcastle.
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1pt Brighton to win & under 2.5 goals at 100/30
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Brighton v Newcastle (1730 BST - BT Sport 1)
It is all getting a bit serious now for Chris Hughton’s Brighton, who looked in no bother at all when meandering around mid-table and enjoying a nice FA Cup run, but they have been in free fall for a while now and it could well end up with them falling through the Premier League trap door.
It’s so hard to get out of that winless run, and with just one point from their last six that’s exactly what they are in, and it didn’t help that relegation rivals Cardiff won emphatically at the Amex to keep their hopes alive and give the Seagulls a terrible case of the jitters.
Their three-point gap going into the weekend could well be down to zero come kick-off on Saturday evening, and Cardiff’s result could well have a bearing on matters on the south coast – with a Bluebirds defeat at Fulham suddenly giving them some breathing space.
Saturday’s visitors Newcastle are safe after beating Southampton last week – as Rafa Benitez proved his wizardry once again by putting the Magpies on the exact same record as they had at this stage last season!
Betting guide
Prediction: Brighton 1-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Tough one this, as the situation at kick-off will have a huge say on how Brighton play this one, while we also don’t know if Newcastle’s players will be thinking of their holidays now they’ve secured safety – as well as the fact Benitez’s future is also up in the air. There’s no real confidence behind the prediction but just based on desire and desperation we’ll give the Seagulls the nod in what could be a nail-biter.
Best Bet: Brighton to win & under 2.5 goals at 100/30
It's hard to back goals between these two, with seven of the last eight yielding under three goals, so we'll throw that in with a nervy Brighton win.
Stats: Draw/Brighton - half time/full time at 9/2
The game will be tense, Brighton will not want to make a mistake regardless of what result they are going for, and Benitez never sends his teams to go flying out of the traps away from home - so expect a cagey start but Brighton to pinch it.
RequestABet: Brighton win, under 2.5 goals, 60+ booking points at 10/1
Opta stats
- Brighton are looking to complete the league double over Newcastle for the first time since the 1978-79 second tier campaign, following their 1-0 win at St James’ Park in October.
- Newcastle have failed to score in all three of their Premier League meetings with Brighton, losing 0-1 twice and drawing the other 0-0.
- Newcastle have only won one of their last 10 Premier League away games on the south coast (D4 L5), beating Bournemouth 1-0 in November 2015. Their last four such games have all ended in a draw.
- Brighton have lost their last three home Premier League games, scoring none and conceding eight. They’ve not lost four league games in a row at home since January 2009 when they were in League One.
- Brighton have failed to score more than once in their last 10 home Premier League games, failing to find the net at all in five of their last seven and the last three in a row at the Amex Stadium.
- Newcastle’s win at Leicester in their last away match ended a run of eight consecutive away league games without a win (D3 L5). They last won consecutive matches on the road back in January 2018.
- Glenn Murray has failed to score in his last 10 Premier League home games for Brighton, last netting at the Amex Stadium back in December.
- Newcastle’s Ayoze Perez has scored six goals in his last six Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 30 in the competition.
- Newcastle’s Salomon Rondon has scored nine Premier League goals this season – he’s never reached double figures in a season in the competition before.
- Ayoze Perez (10) and Salomon Rondon (9) are Newcastle’s highest Premier League goalscorers this season. The last time two Newcastle players scored 10+ goals in a single top-flight campaign was 2011-12 (Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse).