Saturday brings us four games in the Premier League and Tom Carnduff has a best bet for each ranging from 9/4 to 33/1.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Leeds to take more corners than Tottenham at 9/4
1pt Sheffield United to take more corners than Crystal Palace at 5/2
1pt Adam Webster to score anytime in Brighton v Wolves at 16/1
0.5pts Adam Webster to score first in Brighton v Wolves at 33/1
1pt West Brom to be leading at half-time v Arsenal at 19/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
West Brom v Arsenal betting tips
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 19/4 | Draw 3/1 | Away 4/7
West Brom were hammered 5-0 by Leeds in their last contest, a result that once again highlighted the size of the task for Sam Allardyce to keep the Baggies in the Premier League. They are still searching for their second league win of the season and that is unlikely to come here. However, they can keep it tight.
Despite Arsenal making it back-to-back victories with success against Brighton on Tuesday, their performances throughout the campaign have failed to inspire and that includes the first-half at The Amex. Granit Xhaka's effort from distance, which carried a rating of 0.06 xG on the Infogol charts, was their only effort across the opening 45 minutes.
West Brom didn't do much better against Leeds but there will be a desire for a reaction from Allardyce. It has been a theme throughout his managerial career and, despite their struggles at The Hawthorns last time out, it's worth going big and taking the 19/4 best price on the Baggies to be leading at the break.
Slow starts have been a theme throughout Arsenal's contests this season but those particularly away from home. In fact, they have failed to be leading at the break in a Premier League game since victory over Fulham on opening day (drawing in three and losing in four).
Of course, West Brom have been a poor side as well this season but Allardyce teams tend to react well in their next game after losing by big margins. Before the Leeds game, his last defeat of note was a 5-1 hammering by Arsenal when he was Everton manager, the next game was a 3-1 victory over Crystal Palace.
During the same spell, a 4-0 loss to Tottenham was followed by a 1-1 draw to West Brom. At Palace, a 5-0 defeat to Manchester City saw a 4-0 win over Hull come the next week, two very different teams but a reaction nonetheless. At Sunderland, a 4-1 defeat to Spurs had a 1-1 draw with Bournemouth follow it.
There also remains the fact that Arsenal are not only a mid-table team but are putting in the performances to match their current league position. Mikel Arteta's side have failed to register a shot on target in the first half in four of their last five away league games.
We do need to remember the fact that West Brom are struggling and they face a huge task to remain in the division. This could well end up being a game that Arsenal win, but with the odds available and on the basis of the Gunners' away form so far, it's worth gambling on the Baggies to make the better start.
West Brom/Arsenal in the half-time/full-time market is a best price of 25/1, 22/1 across the board, and that could also be worth a small play. The best value comes in the half-time betting though and backing the hosts to hold a lead at the break.
Score prediction: West Brom 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
West Brom v Arsenal best bets
Opta facts
- West Brom are unbeaten in their last three Premier League home games against Arsenal (W2 D1), having only avoided defeat in three of their first nine against them at the Hawthorns in the competition (W1 D2 L6).
- Arsenal have scored in all 24 of their Premier League meetings with West Brom, the best 100% scoring record by one side against an opponent in the competition’s history.
- Arsenal have won just one of their last six Premier League away games against promoted sides (D2 L3), with that victory coming at Fulham on the opening day this season.
- Arsenal have lost their opening league game in just two of the last 19 calendar years (W11 D6), losing 0-2 at Southampton in 2015 and 1-2 at Fulham in 2012.
- Arsenal lost their last league game against a side in the relegation zone, losing 0-1 at home to Burnley – the Gunners have never lost consecutive Premier League games against a side starting the day in the drop zone before.
Tottenham v Leeds betting tips
- 12:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 5/6 | Draw 3/1 | Away 14/5
Leeds continued to show why they are the most fun team to watch in the Premier League as they hammered West Brom 5-0 on Tuesday. It's the third time in their last four games that one side has scored at least five goals (two wins and a loss).
Only the Baggies (35) have conceded more goals than Leeds (30) in England's top-flight but Marcelo Bielsa's side currently sit on a goal difference of 0. Being 12 points above the drop zone after 16 games is exactly what they would have wanted and two wins over the Christmas period means that there is little to no pressure as they travel to take on Tottenham.
Leeds will play in their usual way, wanting to attack, and that should see them have a few opportunities to find the net. It should also mean plenty of corners for the visitors - only Aston Villa (99) have taken more than Leeds (98) in the Premier League this season.
Rather surprisingly, despite their good results in the opening third of the season, Jose Mourinho's Tottenham are 18th in the corner charts with a much lower figure of 63. With this in mind, it is very surprising to see Leeds as big as 9/4 with Sky Bet to win the corner battle in Saturday's early kick-off.
Three of Leeds' last four have seen the Whites take more corners, which includes the 6-2 defeat at Old Trafford. Despite the hosts having 11, Leeds took 13, while they also hit double figures in the trip to The Hawthorns in midweek.
The same can't be said for Tottenham, who have conceded more corners in a number of games this season. Wolves took nine corners to Spurs' two last time out, while Arsenal, Brighton, Manchester City and West Ham have all won the corner battle in away games at Tottenham this season.
This is a bet that will benefit from Spurs opting for a more defensive approach but Leeds have shown they can post a very high corner count if the game becomes open and end-to-end. So much has been made of their struggles to defend set-pieces but they sit in the top half for goals scored from this situation, aided by the huge number of corners they have posted so far.
Around the markets, Tottenham's near even money price looks good enough value, even with their poor recent form. While Leeds' defence has done a great job in keeping two clean sheets, their makeshift back line could be exposed to a quality attack as it was against Manchester United.
Again, that isn't necessarily a huge issue considering they have won three of their last four. Rather than look at an outright result though, it's worth going with the generous 9/4 on Leeds taking more corners than their opponents.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Tottenham v Leeds best bets
Opta facts
- After a run of eight defeats in nine Premier League meetings (D1) with Leeds between November 1997 and November 2001, Spurs have won four of their last five against them in the top-flight (D1), with this their first such game since January 2004 (1-0).
- This is the first meeting between Tottenham and Leeds in any competition since January 2013, when the Yorkshire side won an FA Cup tie 2-1 at Elland Road.
- Tottenham lost their first league game of 2020 (0-1 vs Southampton), last losing their first league game in consecutive calendar years in 2008/2009. When starting the new year at home, Tottenham are unbeaten since 1997 (1-2 vs Man Utd), winning nine and drawing one since.
- Leeds have won their first league game in just one of the last seven calendar years (D4 L2), beating Rotherham 3-0 in 2017.
- Following their 5-0 thrashing of West Brom, Leeds have now won four of their eight away games this season, one more than they managed through their entire last Premier League campaign in 2003-04 (3).
Crystal Palace v Sheffield United betting tips
- 15:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home evens | Draw 23/10 | Away 29/10
Hardly the most exciting game but an important one at this stage of the season. Sheffield United have just two points to their name after 16 games while Palace have failed to win any of their last five. The hosts are even money to return to winning ways but performances in recent weeks have been poor.
Their response to a 7-0 battering by Liverpool was a 3-0 defeat by the ten men of Aston Villa. They did at least stop the losing run with a draw against Leicester but anything less than victory here will be viewed as a negative.
It's a game where the outright result is worth avoiding completely, even with the current position of the visitors. Palace have been dull in recent games and I am unwilling to commit to either in a game like this because Sheffield United will have to win a game at some point.
One area that does provide decent value is corners and, despite their struggles, backing Sheffield United to take more at a big price of 5/2. This is something that has happened in multiple games across the course of the campaign.
Chris Wilder's men have taken more corners than their opponents in three of their last four games, a decent achievement considering two of those games were against Everton and Manchester United. It's hardly exclusive to Bramall Lane either with more corners being taken in away games at Burnley and Chelsea.
For Palace, they have only 'won' the corner battle in one of their last five contests. They sit 12th for corners in the Premier League this season while Sheffield United are ninth, a good position for the Blades which highlights some attacking threat despite their low position.
The best price of 5/2 on Sheffield United taking more corners in this game is just too generous based on recent showings and the same can be said for the general price of 15/8.
Elsewhere, the 4/6 on under 2.5 goals is worth inclusion in any goals-based accumulators on Saturday. All three of the Blades' last three have seen this while Palace hit the same in the three games around the defeats to Aston Villa and Liverpool.
Sheffield United sit 17th in for over 2.5 goals in matches this season while Palace's home games put them in the bottom half. That's a more appealing option than either outright price, but the best bet can be found in the corners market and taking the visitors posting a higher number.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Crystal Palace v Sheffield United best bets
Opta facts
- Crystal Palace lost both Premier League meetings with Sheffield United last season – they’ve not lost three consecutive league games against the Blades since April 1973.
- Crystal Palace were one of just two sides Sheffield United won home and away against in the Premier League last season (along with Norwich), and were also one of two teams the Blades kept two clean sheets against (also Aston Villa).
- Sheffield United lost their first league game of 2020, going down 0-2 at Liverpool. They’ve not lost their first league game in consecutive calendar years since doing so in 2011 and 2012.
- When playing their first league game of a calendar year at home, Crystal Palace have won just one of their last six such matches (D2 L3), beating Wolves 3-1 in 2013.
- Sheffield United have won just 8% of their Premier League games in London, winning two of their 25 visits (D8 L15). Indeed, of all teams to have played at least 20 Premier League away games in the capital, only Derby have a lower win rate (2.6%).
Brighton v Wolves betting tips
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 17/10 | Draw 21/10 | Away 7/4
A contest between two sides who are in real need of points given recent form. Wolves and Brighton both sit in the bottom-six for points return over the last five games. It's more of a concern for the hosts who sit just above the relegation zone.
Opinion on Graham Potter's spell at the club is starting to sway. Last season was supposed to be a campaign for building and implementing his ideas but they have little to show for that as we approach the halfway stage of the 2020/21 season.
The Seagulls managed just one home win in 2020, that came against Arsenal back in June. The calendar year finished with a total of five victories. They are probably the Premier League's most confusing side because they don't actually look all that bad but results and the table show that there are problems.
Wolves can't boast much better form in recent times but they did beat Chelsea in mid-December. That was the only win across their last six contests and they are a big price to add three points to their tally here. Their current problems are similar to Brighton though in that they are struggling to score goals.
The Asian Handicap sits at 0 and I'm happy enough sitting on the fence and taking the draw given the poor form of both. However, despite those goal-scoring issues, both teams have found the net and that's why it's worth taking Adam Webster's big price on a goal here.
The Brighton defender is getting better as the weeks go on and he had a good Christmas period. Not only have his defensive showings been a positive, but he's benefitted from Brighton's large number of corners by providing an attacking presence. Potter's side sit sixth for corners taken in the Premier League this season.
Webster has played the full 90 minutes in 15 of Brighton's 16 games this season and there was at least one shot in 11 of those. He combined for five shots against Sheffield United and West Ham, three of which were on target. He hasn't scored yet this season but a goal is surely coming based on recent performances.
Both teams have had issues defending set-pieces this season, sitting joint-fourth in the Premier League for goals conceded from them (6), but Brighton have struck from crosses into the box against the opponents mentioned above. While the draw is a good price of above 2/1, it's worth going with Webster's odds on a goal (33/1 first, 16/1 anytime).
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Brighton v Wolves best bets
- Adam Webster to score anytime in Brighton v Wolves at 16/1
- Adam Webster to score first in Brighton v Wolves at 33/1
Opta facts
- In their top-flight history, Brighton have played more games against Wolves without ever losing than they have any other opponents (10 – W7 D3). The Seagulls have kept eight clean sheets in these 10 matches, shipping just three goals in total.
- Wolves have won just two of their 16 away league games against Brighton (D6 L8), picking up 1-0 victories in the Championship in September 2004 and January 2016.
- Brighton have lost their first league game in just one of the last 11 calendar years (W6 D4), though that was a home loss to Wolves in the Championship in 2016. The Seagulls have drawn each of their three such games in the Premier League.
- In the top-flight, Wolves have failed to win their first league game of a calendar year in their last eight attempts (D1 L7) since a 3-0 win against Middlesbrough in 1981. Wolves have conceded exactly two goals in each of these eight matches.
- Brighton have never won a Premier League game kicking off at 5.30pm, with the Seagulls losing their first four such games and drawing the most recent five.
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (30/12/20)
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