Free Premier League football betting tips: Sheffield United v Manchester City, Burnley v Chelsea, Liverpool v West Ham
Just the three games on Saturday but Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City are in action. Tom Carnduff has a best bet in each contest.
Recommended bets
1pt Ethan Ampadu to have 3+ tackles in Sheffield United v Manchester City at evens
1pt Timo Werner to be shown a card in Burnley v Chelsea at 19/2
1pt Tomas Soucek to be shown a card in Liverpool v West Ham at 5/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Liverpool v West Ham
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 4/11 | Draw 17/4 | Away 13/2
Liverpool's defensive issues continue to grow with Fabinho, Virgil van Dijk's replacement following his long-term injury, likely out of this contest after picking up a problem of his own. Considering West Ham's decent results from a very tough run of fixtures, the Hammers will be some confident of getting something here.
We await to see how Jurgen Klopp will approach this game when it comes to that defensive line but West Ham will hope to be at least competitive if they can't secure victory. Only one of Liverpool's last six games in all competitions have seen a win that was greater than a one-goal margin.
In our Punting Pointers, we have highlighted how high the foul count is for West Ham's Tomas Soucek. He's a great player to back in a lot of the stats markets; high shots for his position while he has had at least one tackle in every Premier League appearance.
The fouls number remains consistently high. In six league appearances this season, Soucek has seen at least two fouls in each; there has been at least three in four of those contests. Rather surprisingly, he has only been booked once.
He's done really well to receive just the solitary card so far. With Kevin Friend on duty, a referee who averages 40 booking points per match this season, Soucek has every chance of picking up his second of the campaign.
The Czech's low card rate means that a best price of 5/1 is available on him being booked, with 4/1 available across the board - I would have little issue dropping as low as the 3/1 mark. Friend sits third for average fouls given per game and that will be an issue for the Hammers midfielder.
Of course, there is also value in the Sky Bet prices of 11/10 for Soucek to have one shot on target or 10/11 for two total shots. He has had at least two total shots in five of his six games this season and that run could continue at Anfield.
With Liverpool a heavy odds-on, the best outright option comes in taking the visitors on the +2 handicap at a price of 8/11. We've already discussed how close the contests have been for the Reds in recent weeks and West Ham's excellent form. However, the better value can be found in the cards market and backing Soucek, who leads the Premier League in fouls, to pick up his second booking of the season.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Tomas Soucek to be shown a card at 5/1
Opta facts
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games against West Ham (W6 D2), since losing both meetings with the Hammers in the 2015-16 campaign.
- West Ham have won just one of their last 47 away league games against Liverpool (D12 L34), winning 3-0 in August 2015.
- West Ham have lost 21 of their 24 Premier League away games against reigning champions (W1 D2), with their only victory coming in December 2001 against Manchester United at Old Trafford (1-0).
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 62 Premier League home games (W51 D11), winning 28 of their last 29 at Anfield. If they avoid defeat here, it will equal the Reds’ longest ever unbeaten home run in their league history (63 between February 1978-December 1980).
- Having lost their opening two Premier League games this season, West Ham are now unbeaten in their last four (W2 D2), with that four-game unbeaten run coming against sides who finished in the top seven places last season.
Burnley v Chelsea
- 15:00 GMT on BT Sport Box Office
- Match odds: Home 21/4 | Draw 10/3 | Away 1/2
The second game on Saturday reflects the first; the away side heavily fancied as they go to a team struggling at the bottom end of the table. Chelsea's 1/2 price for victory should come in despite their mixed form in the league in recent weeks.
Frank Lampard's side aren't losing, they only have one loss in that column, but they are being held back by a number of draws in games they should have won; 3-3 draws against West Brom and Southampton were followed by a dull 0-0 at Manchester United. This game has to end in a win for them.
Much like the City game that comes before it, the outright market being so heavily favoured to one team drags down the prices elsewhere but there is value in backing an unlikely source for a card - that being Chelsea forward Timo Werner.
The Germany international is yet to be shown a card having made nine appearances for the club across all competitions but he is a forward who has seen bookings in recent seasons; there were five for Leipzig in the 2019/20 campaign.
He has committed at least one foul in four of his six Premier League appearances so far but what is interesting is how many forward players are booked when they come up against this Burnley defence. Their last three opponents who were shown at least one card all saw one attacking-based player booked (West Brom's Matt Phillips; Newcastle's Joelinton; Manchester City's Raheem Sterling and Bernardo Silva).
Burnley sit in the top half when it comes to being fouled in the Premier League this season (11.2 per game) while Chelsea are ninth for fouls committed (12.2 per game). The Clarets' full-back options of Charlie Taylor, Phil Bardsley and Erik Pieters have all averaged at least one foul against.
Werner's fouls aren't just coming in one area of the pitch which does give more hope to this selection. We are seeing fouls in the usual advanced wide areas but there have also been those in his own half. Those fouls are the reason behind a few of the cards during the last campaign with Leipzig.
David Coote has hit the headlines for VAR-based reasons this season but he has shown at least three yellows in each of his six appearances in all competitions. This is a referee who averages more fouls per game than any other Premier League official while the fouls/tackles rate is also significantly higher.
The likes of Che Adams, Joelinton and Lucas Joao have all been booked by Coote this season. With Chelsea odds-on for success, a price they should justify against a poor Burnley side, the best value comes in backing Werner joining them and picking up his first card of the campaign.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Timo Werner to be shown a card at 19/2
Opta facts
- Burnley have won just one of their 12 Premier League matches against Chelsea (D3 L8), with that victory coming at Stamford Bridge in August 2017 (3-2).
- Chelsea have won five of their six Premier League away games against Burnley (D1), netting at least twice in each victory. Indeed, the Blues have scored exactly four goals on each of their last two visits to Turf Moor, with Christian Pulisic netting a hat-trick in this fixture last season.
- None of the 12 Premier League meetings between Burnley and Chelsea have been goalless at half-time, making it the most played fixture in the competition to always have a goal scored in the opening 45 minutes.
- Chelsea have won nine points or fewer from their opening six Premier League games to a season in just three of their last 20 campaigns, with two of those instances coming during Frank Lampard’s tenure (8 pts in 2019-20 and 9 pts in 2020-21).
- Burnley have registered the highest percentage of passes long in the Premier League this season, with the Clarets going long with 19.6% of their passes. Indeed, no side has scored fewer goals in open play in the Premier League this term than Burnley (1).
Sheffield United v Manchester City
- 12:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 17/2 | Draw 19/4 | Away 2/7
Sheffield United's start to the season has been one to forget but they can draw some inspiration from that performance at Anfield. They held the lead and a solid first-half performance ultimately counted for little. They need points though and they need them soon; Manchester City are not the team to face when you're in that situation.
City's form has been odd but their performances in the Champions League offer hope that it may not be a poor season after all. They are 6/5 favourites for the title and victory in Saturday's early game will move them to within two points of top spot, at least for a short while.
Sergio Aguero is the headline absentee for the visitors but Sheffield United are suffering injury problems of their own and we have to factor this in when looking at their start to the campaign. The fact is they have one point and that should remain the same at the full-time whistle.
There's always little appeal when it comes to Manchester City games, although that will be different when they face Liverpool next week, and the better value comes in looking at bets focusing on Sheffield United. In this contest, Ethan Ampadu's price on tackles catches the eye.
The Chelsea loanee started the campaign in defence but was pushed forward into the midfield for the clash against Liverpool. Injuries forced that change, although he could retain his spot when John Fleck returns, and John Lundstram's ongoing contract situation will likely leave Ampadu ahead of him in the order.
There isn't a great deal of interest in the tackles for Ampadu when he's playing in defence but the figure does increase when operating at the base of the midfield. He failed to go above one tackle in each of his two appearances at centre-back; there were three when playing in midfield.
The pattern is roughly the same when on national duty with Wales. He did have a higher overall tackle rate with three coming in one of his three games at centre-back, but the figure jumped up to six when he featured in midfield for the Nations League clash against Bulgaria.
City should dominate possession and see the better of the chances. Even with their stop-start campaign they can get victory here but with the visitors odds-on, the better value comes in taking Ampadu hitting the three tackles marker at at even money.
Score prediction: Sheffield United 0-2 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Ethan Ampadu to have 3+ tackles at evens
Opta facts
- Sheffield United are winless in their last six league meetings with Man City (D2 L4), failing to score in any of the last four. Their last victory against them was in the second tier in January 2000 (1-0).
- Manchester City are looking to win four consecutive league games against Sheffield United for the first time since March 1930.
- Sheffield United have never beaten Man City in the Premier League in eight attempts (D3 L5), the most they’ve faced any side in the competition without a victory. They’ve failed to score in seven of these eight meetings, the highest percentage of games a side has failed to score against another in the Premier League (88% - minimum eight meetings).
- Sheffield United are winless in their last nine Premier League games (D1 L8), the longest ongoing run among all current sides in the competition. The last time the Blades failed to win any of their first seven league games in a single campaign was back in 1991-92.
- Among the 17 ever-present Premier League sides since the start of last season, Sheffield United have had the fewest shots (409) and fewest shots on target (131), while only Crystal Palace (39) have scored fewer goals than the Blades in the competition (42).
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (29/10/20)
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