Premier League tips: Betting previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's action, including Liverpool, Chelsea and Man City

Recommended bets

1pt Tomas Soucek to score anytime for West Ham at 4/1

1pt Liverpool to win and under 3.5 total goals at 5/4

0.5pt Chelsea to win and BTTS at 11/4

0.5pt Manchester City most booking points v Brighton at 2/1

For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record

Brighton v Manchester City

• 2000 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
• Match Odds: Home - 15/2 | Draw - 4/1 | Away - 1/3

A brutal run of home fixtures sees Brighton host Man City, after the successive visits of Arsenal (which they won), Man United and Liverpool.

Graham Potter's side have positives to take from the home defeat to Liverpool, but if they gamble and play it out from the back again like they did in the early stages at the Amex, then Pep Guardiola's side will punish them.

The Citizens have lost their last three away league games in a row and they face a psychological battle to end that run here. If they hit the heights of Wednesday's 5-0 thrashing of Newcastle, that should be no problem, more so with the behind-closed-doors element.

As much as Southampton deserve credit for last weekend's display, it was not exactly a bad City performance. They conceded after an error and well-taken goal, had 74% possession and 26 shots in total. It wasn't for the want of trying

While it might not be a thrashing here, the odds-against 6/5 best price on City to score three or more is certainly one to consider.

But the preference is to look at the bookings market.

Brighton find themselves low on the disciplinary table in 17th, with 52 yellows and a red across the whole campaign. City, meanwhile, are 11th with 58 bookings and four dismissals.

Well beaten against United and Liverpool, the Seagulls received just one booking in total and only two in a high-tempered match with Arsenal before that.

Liverpool, meanwhile, received four bookings despite their strong position in the game and Man City, for all their pleasing football, do have an aggressive side to their game. In those three defeats on the road, they have received a total of seven yellows and a red.

The even-money price with Paddy Power for the game to have over 20 booking points is excellent, but the 2/1 on City to receive more bookings is more appealing, providing the Seagulls do not do something erratic like getting a red card.

Even when they are winning, City often concede petty fouls to slow down opposition play so it is worth a go here.

Prediction: Brighton 1-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 10/1)

Best bet: Manchester City most booking points at 2/1

Opta stats

• Brighton have lost all five of their Premier League meetings with Manchester City, conceding 15 goals and scoring just twice in return.
• Brighton have lost three of their last four Premier League home games (W1), as many as they had in their previous 13 at the Amex Stadium (W4 D6 L3).
• Manchester City have lost their last three Premier League away games, last losing four in a row on the road in April 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini.
• Manchester City have had 654 shots in the Premier League this season, at least 87 more than any other side. They’re averaging 19.2 shots-per-game in the Premier League this term, the most by a side since Liverpool in 2012-13 (19.4).
• Man City’s win against Newcastle last time out was the 18th time the Citizens have scored 5+ goals in a Premier League game under Pep Guardiola (148 games). Only Alex Ferguson (44) and Arsène Wenger (41) have seen their sides net 5+ goals more often in the competition.
• Man City’s Kevin De Bruyne is just two assists away from becoming only the second player in Premier League history to record 20 in a single season, after Thierry Henry in 2002-03. The Belgian is also currently on 98 goal involvements in his Premier League career (34 goals, 64 assists).

Sheffield United v Chelsea

• 1730 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
• Match Odds: Home - 11/2 | Draw - 3/1 | Away - 1/2

Sheffield United snatched a late winner against Wolves at Bramall Lane on Wednesday and here they face another challenge as Chelsea are in town.

The Blades, who came from two down to draw at Stamford Bridge in August, have scored one goal in back-to-back games to draw with Burnley and beat Wolves - defender John Egan scoring both - but we are expecting more goals here on Saturday evening.

Frank Lampard's side are up to third in the race for the Champions League spot, but with Leicester and Jamie Vardy possibly back on the straight and narrow and Man United in form, they can afford no more slip-ups.

They have won seven of their last eight in all competitions and Christian Pulisic has stepped up to inspire them, with the American scoring again in the midweek win at Palace - his third since the restart.

We tipped him to score anytime at 9/4 and to be named Man of the Match at 6/1 - both successful - and he is again an excellent 12/5 to get on the score sheet on his trip to Yorkshire.

He has returned from the break in inspired form and it bodes well for next season with forwards Hakim Ziyech and Timo Werner joining the club.

While Pulisic is tempting again, an away win with both teams scoring is the preferred play at 11/4. The Blades have been excellent, but more than half (5/9) of their defeats have come on home soil this term.

With Chelsea's style of play and still defensive frailties it could be a much more open game than Chris Wilder's side have experienced in recent matchdays.

Both teams have scored in 14 of the Blues' 17 away games. With an away result fancied, this is a good way to go for value. It has to be with caution and a smaller stake, though, due to the Blades' superb campaign and recent improvement in form.

Prediction: Sheff United 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bet: Chelsea to win and BTTS at 11/4 (BetFred)

Opta stats

• Chelsea have won their last five Premier League games in Yorkshire and are unbeaten in their last nine (W7 D2) in the county since a 0-2 loss at Leeds in December 2002.
• Against Wolves last time out, Sheffield United won 1-0 for the seventh time in the Premier League this season – more than any other side. The Blades are looking to secure four consecutive Premier League home wins for the first time.
• Chelsea have scored at least twice in each of their last eight Premier League games – only once have the Blues had a longer such run in the competition (10 games between May-September 2009).
• Tammy Abraham has scored nine away goals for Chelsea in the Premier League this season – only Didier Drogba (15 in 2009-10) and Nicolas Anelka (11 in 2008-09) have netted more on the road in a single campaign for the Blues.
• Chelsea’s Olivier Giroud has scored four goals in his last six Premier League games, including in each of the last two. He’d only scored in four of his previous 40 in the competition, while he last scored in three consecutive league games in January 2017 (4, with Arsenal).

Norwich v West Ham

• 1230 BST kick-off on BT Sport
• Match Odds: Home - 12/5 | Draw - 5/2 | Away - 21/20

After a disappointing defeat in midweek, this is a huge fixture for West Ham to boost their survival hopes.

Losing at home to Burnley was a poor result and it leaves David Moyes' side, writing before Thursday's fixtures, four clear of the drop zone with four games to go.

Three points here would ease their worries massively before another big game against Watford (h) next week, followed by Man United (a) and Aston Villa (h). That final-day clash could well be crucial.

Daniel Farke's Norwich have lost their last six Premier League games in a row and a loss here would confirm the inevitable - their immediate return to the Sky Bet Championship.

The Canaries look down and out and you would really expect the Hammers to get a positive result. As the stats (below) state, they had 21 shots in the defeat to Burnley, so the chance creation and desire is there. Their draw at Newcastle last week also showed fight and it was their first point on the road since mid-December.

The scorer of their second goal was midfielder Tomas Soucek. Regular readers of Sporting Life's football section will know all about him, having raved about his season stats since he arrived from Slavia Prague in January.

We mentioned in our preview that the Czech international was 11/2 to score at Newcastle and, annoyingly, did not back him in the staking plan. He is 4/1 this time with bet365, and as low as 2/1 in some places, and we are not going to miss the boat this time.

An excellent price considering he has scored twice in his last three games. They both came from corners and he does pose a threat given his 6ft 3in presence.

He found the back of the net against Chelsea, then saw it unfortunately ruled out by VAR. He soon bullied Cesar Azpilicueta again from a set piece and headed home. Then, against Newcastle, he was in the box to tidy up after Declan Rice's header hit the bar.

In those two games, he had a combined five shots in total, then in Wednesday's poor result against Burnley, he had a further SIX shots.

He is yet to make his move permanent, with the east Londoners having an option to keep him for £13m this summer, so he has a personal motivation as well as trying to keep the Hammers up.

As we noted in our 11 players to watch feature, Soucek scored against both Inter and Dortmund in the Champions League this season. If he can do it against big teams on the big stage, there is no reason why he cannot continue his excellent start with West Ham.

At 4/1 against a leaky Norwich defence, it is certainly worth a shot.

Prediction: Norwich 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 9/1)

Best bet: Tomas Soucek to score anytime at 4/1

Opta stats

• West Ham are looking for their first league double over Norwich since 1972-73, following their 2-0 win at the London Stadium in August.
• Defeat here will see Norwich relegated from the Premier League for the fifth time since the competition began in 1992-93 – more than any other side.
• Norwich have scored just five goals in their 14 Premier League games so far in 2020, and never more than once in a match. Indeed, the Canaries have failed to score in a league-high 16 Premier League games this season.
• West Ham had 21 shots in their 0-1 home defeat against Burnley, their most in a Premier League game this season and most in a game without scoring since December 2016 against Leicester City, when they had 24.
• West Ham’s Michail Antonio has been involved in three goals in his last three Premier League games (2 goals, 1 assist) – just one fewer than in his first 17 appearances in the competition this season (2 goals, 2 assists).

Watford v Newcastle

• 1230 BST kick-off on Amazon Prime
• Match Odds: Home - 4/5 | Draw - 5/2 | Away - 18/5

Watford made a big stride towards safety on Tuesday as Danny Welbeck's immense bicycle kick sealed a 2-1 win over Norwich. It moved them, writing before Thursday's fixtures, four clear of the drop zone.

Manager Nigel Pearson warned there is no breathing space yet and they will hope to have some ascendency here for another home clash, against Newcastle, who suffered a 5-0 thrashing at Man City on Wednesday.

A correct score group betting of Watford to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 served us well and it is an incredibly tempting 7/4 here. With confidence and Welbeck in the XI to provide support for Troy Deeney along with Ismaila Sarr, they can punish a Magpies side that was hit by injuries in midweek.

Miguel Almiron was only fit enough for a place on the bench and he did not come on, while Allan Saint-Maximin was absent from the squad.

Without those two, Steve Bruce's side could struggle going forward and look more like the side that had the worst expected goals rate for the season going into the enforced break. In addition, there was no excuse for some poor defending that was on show at the Etihad, Man City or not.

A narrow home win could be on the cards, but Newcastle's differing form since the restart, and the fitness of key players, makes us hesitate in putting it in the staking plan.

Prediction: Watford 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)

Best bet: Watford to win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 at 7/4

Opta stats

• Only Burnley and Manchester City have kept more home clean sheets than Watford this season (7). Overall, the Hornets have kept nine clean sheets in the Premier League this season, only keeping more in the competition in 2015-16 (11).
• Before the break, Newcastle’s 29 Premier League games this season had seen just 2.3 goals-per-game (F25 A41), the third lowest average in the division. Since the restart, their five games have seen 3.8 goals scored on average (F10 A9).
• Newcastle are averaging just 37.5% possession in the Premier League this season, the lowest in the division. It’s also the Magpies’ lowest figure in a single Premier League campaign since this data is available (2003-04).
• Under Nigel Pearson, Watford have converted 12% of their shots in the Premier League (22 goals from 183 shots). Under Quique Sánchez Flores this season it was just 6% (7/117), and just 3.6% under Javier Gracia (2/55).
• Newcastle’s 0-5 defeat to Man City was only the sixth time in 426 Premier League games that a side managed by Steve Bruce had shipped five goals in a game. Despite this, Bruce has the worst goal difference of any manager in Premier League history (-128 – F437 A565).
• Danny Welbeck’s winner against Norwich last time out was his first Premier League goal for Watford, and his first overall in the competition in 682 days. He last scored in consecutive Premier League appearances back in February 2016.
• Despite both players only playing 22 of Newcastle’s 34 Premier League games this season, Jonjo Shelvey (6 goals, 1 assist) and Allan Saint-Maximin (3 goals, 4 assists) have registered more goal involvements than any other Newcastle player this season. They’ve also created more chances than any other player at the club (Shelvey 38, Saint-Maximin 29)

Liverpool v Burnley

• 1500 BST kick-off on on BT Sport
• Match Odds: Home - 2/7 | Draw - 9/2 | Away - 17/2

If anyone thought Liverpool would be taking their foot off the gas after being confirmed as Premier League champions and then being thrashed by Man City, think again.

The Reds still have a number of records in their sights and Mo Salah is targeting the Golden Boot. The Egyptian had an incredible eight shots in total against Brighton, scoring two goals to move within three of Jamie Vardy who leads the way.

Salah missed a big chance late on and his clear disappointment and frustration at the full-time whistle showed just how much he wants the individual accolade for a third successive season (last year's was shared with Sadio Mane and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang).

It is really tempting to back him to get a couple here, but the shots market is short and the 16/5 price on him to bag two or more does not quite appeal enough.

The Reds, with four games left, can still eclipse Man City's 100-point record from 17/18 and they are also going for a perfect home record - Burnley and Chelsea to go before becoming the first team to achieve 100% on home soil in the top flight since 1892.

So, Burnley...have they got a chance?

Well, anything is possible in this league and Sean Dyche does continue to do an incredible job at Turf Moor - the midweek win at West Ham putting them ninth and within touching distance of Arsenal, Sheff United and Wolves.

But you would expect a Salah-inspired Liverpool to get the job done. The only worry for how they start could be without Jordan Henderson, who is awaiting the results of a knee injury sustained at the Amex.

• How Klopp became Kop king
• Klopp's praise for 'legend' Lallana
• Salah hits back in Golden Boot race

He will not miss the trophy lift, which takes place against Chelsea, but he is unlikely to start here.

Henderson is the driving force behind this team and the above tweet shows how they struggled in the first half before he came on against Aston Villa last weekend. On his return to the XI in midweek, Liverpool came bursting out of the blocks.

James Milner could play a similar role here, otherwise it could take a while to get going with a shuffled midfield. Therefore a goalless first half is a risky play, but tempting at 3/1 considering the way Dyche can organise his pack.

With the same thinking in mind though and a little more wiggle room, a low-scoring Liverpool win (less than four goals in the game) at 5/4 is the preference.

Prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)

Best bet: Liverpool to win and under 3.5 total goals at 5/4

Opta stats

• Liverpool’s current unbeaten home run in the Premier League stands at 57 games, while the Reds have won each of their last 24 at Anfield in the competition. The Reds have netted 149 goals in those 57 games, while conceding just 32 in return.
• Victory here will see Liverpool equal the record for most home wins in a single Premier League campaign (18), while it will also put them a step closer to becoming just the second team in top-flight history to win 100% of their home games in a single season, after Sunderland in 1891-92 (13/13).
• Burnley have won 14 Premier League games this season, equalling their best season for wins in the competition in 2017-18. They last won more in a top-flight season in 1974-75, winning 17 on their way to finishing 10th.
• Both Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mané have scored four goals in their last three Premier League games for Liverpool against Burnley, with each player netting a brace in this exact fixture last season as the Reds won 4-2.
• Burnley’s Nick Pope has kept 14 Premier League clean sheets this season, more than any other goalkeeper. The last English goalkeeper to keep more than 14 in a season was Joe Hart in 2015-16 for Man City (15), while no English keeper has kept an away league clean sheet at Anfield since Jack Butland in April 2018 for Stoke City.
• Against Brighton, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah registered his 100th Premier League goal involvement for the club in his 104th appearance (73 goals, 27 assists). Only Alan Shearer at Blackburn Rovers (100 apps) has reached 100 goals/assists for a single club in fewer appearances in Premier League history.

Odds correct as of 1430 BST on 09/07/20

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