Premier League tips: Betting previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's fixtures, including Liverpool, Arsenal and Tottenham
Mark your card for Saturday's Premier League games with George Pitts providing a best bet and score prediction for each clash.
Recommended bets
1pt Burnley to be winning at half-time v Tottenham at 5/2
0.5pt Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to score anytime at 10/1
0.5pt Jack Stacey to be carded in Liverpool v Bournemouth at 7/1
0.5pt Abdoulaye Doucoure to score anytime at 11/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Burnley v Tottenham
- 1730 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
With a crunch Champions League match in Leipzig next week, Jose Mourinho has reportedly told the Spurs board to choose between the Premier League and Europe, as he cannot focus his squad on both.
Spurs trail the Bundesliga by a goal in the Champions League last 16 while in the Premier League, they also trail, with five points separating them and Chelsea in fourth.
After exiting the FA Cup, progression in Europe could be the priority and that's why there could be value in favouring Burnley in some way here.
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The Clarets, who beat Tottenham at Turf Moor last season, are just two points worse off than Spurs going into the clash and they are currently on a six-match unbeaten run in the league.
The hosts are unsurprisingly the same price as Tottenham to win at 7/4. With the Londoners taken to extra-time and penalties by Norwich in midweek, you would not put it past them.
With the extra-time in mind, the thinking is to go with a quick start from Burnley and they are 5/2 to be leading at the interval.
They are not known to be quick starters, with just nine of their 33 Premier League goals coming in the first-half, but the fact their opponents could take a while to get going draws us to this market.
Sean Dyche's men have had an impressive season and got some good results of late - wins at Manchester United and Southampton, a home victory Leicester, and a draw with Arsenal.
A tired and distracted Tottenham side that is in a bit of disarray both on and off the field should be no problem for them to get at least a point here.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Burnley to be winning at half-time at 5/2
Opta stats
- Burnley have won just two of their 11 Premier League meetings with Spurs (W2 D2 L7), though both of those wins have come at Turf Moor in May 2010 and February 2019.
- Burnley are unbeaten in their last six matches in the Premier League (W4 D2), conceding just two goals in this run and never more than once in a match. They last enjoyed a longer unbeaten streak back in February 2019 (8 games).
- Tottenham have lost their last two Premier League matches, conceding 2+ goals in each defeat – they last suffered three consecutive losses back in November 2012 under André Villas-Boas.
- Only Liverpool (12) have kept more clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Burnley (11), while only in 2017-18 (12) have the Clarets recorded more shutouts in a single Premier League campaign than they have in 2019-20.
- Tottenham have conceded at least two goals in 50% of their 16 Premier League matches under Jose Mourinho (8/16) – his highest such ratio in a single stint as manager in the competition (next highest, Man Utd 24.7%).
- Burnley have conceded fewer goals via set pieces (excl. penalties) than any other Premier League team this season (2).
- Spurs manager José Mourinho has only faced Swansea City (9) more often in the Premier League without losing than he has against Burnley (8), winning five and drawing three against the Clarets.
Arsenal v West Ham
It is Mikel Arteta v David Moyes, together at Everton as vice captain and manager respectively.
You would not be backing Arsenal here at 4/7 - it would be typical of West Ham to pick up the result as Moyes' men look to steer clear of the drop.
After coming close at Liverpool, they followed it up with a home victory over Southampton to move out of the bottom three on goal difference.
Arteta's side have enough to be motivated about, though. They have a game in hand and if they win that then they move to within two points of Manchester United in fifth - a position that could be enough to qualify for the Champions League depending on City's Champions League ban, which has been appealed.
Whether or not they can win at the Emirates remains to be seen, but they can at least start well and rattle Arteta's side, which is improved but still has its inconsistencies.
The Gunners have conceded the first goal in 14 of their 27 games this season and you can back the Hammers to score first at 2/1. The east Londoners should have renewed confidence from the Saints game, scoring three goals, and two of them came in the first half.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Best bet: West Ham to score first at 2/1
Opta stats
- Arsenal have won none of their last four home London derbies in the Premier League (D2 L2), losing the last one against Chelsea. They haven’t lost back-to-back home derbies since February 2006, when their defeats were against Chelsea and West Ham.
- Arsenal are unbeaten in seven Premier League games (W3 D4), the longest current unbeaten run in the division. The Gunners are also looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since August 2019.
- Following their 3-1 win against Southampton last time out, West Ham are looking to secure back-to-back Premier League victories for the first time since August. However, the Hammers have lost their last five Premier League away games, last losing more consecutively between August-December 2006 (8 games).
- 43% of West Ham’s total shots in the Premier League this season have been on target (122/287) – since we have this data available (from 1997-98), no team has hit a higher ratio of their total shots on target in a single campaign (Man Utd also 43% in 2018-19).
- Arsenal striker Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang has scored 49 goals in 74 Premier League games. If he scores here, he’ll be the 38th different player to score 50 league goals for the Gunners, the joint-sixth quickest, and the fastest since Joe Baker reached the milestone in 62 games in 1963.
- All six of Alexandre Lacazette’s six Premier League goals this season have come in home games, the highest such 100% record in the competition this season.
Podcast: Premier League Weekly
Eric Dier, Liverpool & the Manchester derby - Joe Townsend, George Pitts, Tom Carnduff and Dale Tempest are back for the latest episode.
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Crystal Palace v Watford
There is always a danger of back down to earth for Watford after their shock victory over Liverpool, but they have plenty of reasons to be hopeful of getting something at Crystal Palace.
Roy Hodgson's Eagles have won back-to-back games now to ease relegation fears, following an eight-match winless run in all competitions, but those victories were both one-nils and goals are undoubtedly an issue for them. Even more so now that Cenk Tosun has returned to Everton early from his loan spell with a season-ending knee injury.
Watford, meanwhile, go into the weekend outside the relegation zone only on goal difference, but the return of Ismaila Sarr inspired them for the visit of the previously unbeaten league leaders and now Nigel Pearson will be hoping they can kick on once again.
Watford are at an appealing 2/1 general price to win at Selhurst (11/10 to score first, a good price considering Palace's record in the first half - see Opta facts, below), but there are also tempting options in the goalscorer market.
Key man Sarr is at 100/30 anytime, but it is another of Pearson's star men that sticks out more - Abdoulaye Doucoure, who can be found further down the betting at a best price of 11/2.
The Frenchman is probably still considered a holding midfielder by the bookies, but Pearson has instilled confidence and given him the freedom of a more advanced role - he has already reaped the rewards with three Premier League goals in 2020. Two of them came away from home, two against bottom-half sides.
With Gerard Deulofeu out for the rest of the season, Doucoure will be even more important going forward in his role supporting Troy Deeney.
His record of being carded is remarkable, with eight in all competitions this term, but his shots rate is equally as impressive.
In his last four games he has had two, two, two and four attempts respectively and going further back he consistently tries his luck. Five in one game against Arsenal earlier in the season, four against Bournemouth and three against both West Ham and Villa.
Of his 48 shots this season, 22 have come from outside the box so there could be a temptation for a small play in this market, but just over 5/1 is good enough for us in a game that Watford can undoubtedly win.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 0-2 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Abdoulaye Doucoure to score anytime at 11/2
Opta stats
- Crystal Palace are winless in five matches against Watford in all competitions (D2 L3) since a 2-1 win in December 2017 at Selhurst Park.
- None of the four Premier League meetings between Watford and Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park have ended as a draw, with both teams winning two games apiece.
- Crystal Palace have scored fewer home goals than any other Premier League side this term (11).
- Crystal Palace have scored just six goals before half-time in the Premier League this season, with their earliest strike coming in the 21st minute. However, only Liverpool (7) and Sheffield United (11) have conceded fewer goals in the first half of games this season than the Eagles (12).
- Watford have scored 27 Premier League goals this season, but have an expected goals figure of 35.7. This means based on the quality of chances they’ve had, they’ve scored almost nine fewer goals than expected, the biggest negative difference in the league this season.
- Jordan Ayew’s seven Premier League goals have been worth 12 points to Crystal Palace in the Premier League this season. Only Andy Johnson’s in 2004-05 (15) have been worth more to the Eagles in a single campaign.
- Troy Deeney has been directly involved in eight goals in his last 11 Premier League games (6 goals, 2 assists), though the Watford captain hasn’t scored in consecutive league matches since March 2018.
Sheffield United v Norwich
It is coming to that time of season where the surprising results pop up every week as teams scrap for survival.
Norwich have been stuck in the bottom three for the majority of the campaign but last week's win gives them a glimmer of hope. They still remain seven adrift of safety but there are still 10 games to go and 30 points to play for.
The Canaries dispatched Leicester at Carrow Road and now they travel to high-flying Sheffield United, who played extra-time in the FA Cup in midweek, beating Reading to reach the quarter-finals.
Chris Wilder's side, as impressive as they have been, prefer the underdog status and that shows with a couple of slip-ups on home turf this term.
They were fortunate to beat West Ham with thanks to VAR, while they lost to Leicester, Southampton, Liverpool (forgivable), Newcastle and Man City (forgivable).
Granted, Norwich have only collected six points on the road all season but the 5/1 price on them looks generous.
There is a danger they are also heavy legged after playing extra-time at Tottenham but with the confidence from their penalty shootout victory and the Foxes win, they could also be worth looking at in the draw no bet at 100/30.
Score prediction: Sheff United 1-2 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Best bet: Norwich draw no bet at 10/3
Opta stats
- Sheffield United have lost both of their home Premier League games against Norwich, though the games were both played during 1993.
- Sheffield United’s 27 Premier League games this season have seen just 54 goals scored (F29 A25), with only Liverpool (20) conceding fewer goals than the Blades this term.
- This will be the 20th ever Premier League match between two promoted sides with at least 12 places between them in the table (Sheffield United 8th, Norwich 20th). Only four of the previous 19 lower placed sides have won, with 20th placed Watford beating 7th placed Reading in May 2007 most recently.
- This will be Norwich’s 10th consecutive and 11th Premier League match overall this season as the side starting the day bottom of the table. However, 12 of their 21 points have been won in such matches this term (57%).
- Norwich have given more minutes to players aged 21 or under than any other Premier League side this season (7026). Meanwhile, only Crystal Palace (7) have given fewer such minutes than Sheffield United (129).
- Sheffield United keeper Dean Henderson has kept nine clean sheets in his 26 Premier League games this season. If he keeps Norwich at bay in this match, he’ll be the 11th keeper to reach double figures under the age of 23, and the fourth English keeper to do so after Joe Hart, Scott Carson and Jack Butland.
Southampton v Newcastle
A meeting between two sides who should be fine and free of a relegation battle, with 13th taking on 14th.
Newcastle are currently five clear of the drop and the number of teams below them can give Steve Bruce some comfort. What can also give them hope is the fact Southampton are the league's worst team on home soil, winning just four of 14.
But, looking at both sides and where they are, these two managers would probably be happy with a draw and these sort of clashes can often be cagey with both sides wanting to avoid taking risks.
But risks we shall take, with a 10/1 anytime goalscorer to consider. Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg is yet to score in the Premier League this term but the Saints captain is surely due a goal.
Hojbjerg, who averaged three attempts per game in the last UEFA Nations League for Denmark last year, is a key part of Southampton's midfield and his recent shots stats show he is keen to find the back of the net. In fact, over the course of the season, his stats hint that this overdue goal is very much coming.
He has had two or more shots on 14 occasions in the Premier League this season, with a total of 11 coming in his last five outings - three of them at Anfield.
Given these stats and the fact he has played 90 minutes in all but one of his 27 league appearances this term, you would think his luck will turn and 10/1 looks too good to turn down against a Newcastle side that are generally not great on the road (just three wins in 14).
Score prediction: Southampton 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg to score anytime at 10/1
Opta stats
- Only Liverpool (8) and Manchester City (5) have won more Premier League games so far in 2020 than Southampton (4). However, only West Ham and Bournemouth (5 each) have lost more games this calendar year than Saints (4).
- Newcastle have failed to score in each of their last four Premier League games; only once in their history have they gone more consecutive top-flight games without a goal (6 between October-December 1988).
- Since the start of February, Newcastle have had 54 shots (13 on target) in four Premier League matches but have failed to score a single goal. In that time, only eight sides have had more efforts than the Magpies, though only three have had fewer attempts on target.
- Newcastle have scored a league-low 24 Premier League goals this season but have had 13 different goalscorers, meaning 54% of their goals have been netted by different players (excluding own goals).
- Newcastle manager Steve Bruce has never won an away league match against Southampton in six previous attempts, drawing two and losing four of his visits to the St Mary’s Stadium.
- No player has scored in more different Premier League games this season than Danny Ings, with the striker scoring in 14 of Southampton’s 28 Premier League games.
Cheltenham Festival on Sporting Life
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Wolves v Brighton
The games are coming thick and fast for Wolves but they are looking like good candidates for Champions League qualification.
Their fourth round elimination from the FA Cup will come as a blessing as they were able to have a week off between matchdays 28 and 29, as they welcome struggling Brighton.
Graham Potter's Seagulls have won just one of their last 18 in all competitions. Earlier in the season they were playing excellent football and looked like they had more than enough to avoid a relegation scrap. Potter even got a new six-year deal in November.
But such a run has seen them dragged into trouble and they go into the weekend just a point above the bottom three.
While Wolves are expected to come out on top, we will go for a market which works for any outcome.
Soccer Saturday pundits Charlie Nicholas, Matt Le Tissier and Phil Thompson have their say on the race to finish in the Premier League top five.
Nuno Espirito Santo's side are a second-half side. We saw that at Southampton, where they came from two down to win 3-2. They have scored just 12 goals before half-time in the Premier League this season, with 29 coming in the second - over twice as many.
Brighton's record is similar too, scoring 12 in the first and 20 in the second. With how this game is expected to go - Wolves setting up tight and coming strong in the second period and Brighton probably looking to avoid giving anything cheap away early on - backing more goals in the second half at 6/5 catches the eye, although there are preferred fancies for recommended bets elsewhere.
Score prediction: Wolves 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Second half to have the most goals at 6/5
Opta stats
- Wolves have never beaten Brighton in a top-flight match, drawing two and losing seven of their nine previous meetings.
- Six of the last eight league meetings between Wolves and Brighton at Molineux have ended as draws, including a goalless draw in last season’s Premier League encounter.
- This is just Wolves’ 10th Premier League game on a Saturday this season – they’re unbeaten in their last eight such games (W4 D4) since losing 2-5 against Chelsea back in September.
- Brighton are the only side without a Premier League victory so far in 2020 (W0 D5 L3). The Seagulls also picked up fewer victories (8) and points (34) than any of the 17 ever-present top-flight sides in 2019.
- Wolves have gained a league-high 21 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season, losing only six of their 19 games in which they’ve fallen behind at some point (W4 D9). The last time a side won more points from behind in a season was in 2012-13 (Man Utd 29, Tottenham 23, Everton 22).
- Brighton have won just one of their last 13 Premier League away games (D4 L8), with that victory coming at Arsenal in December.
Liverpool v AFC Bournemouth
- 1230 GMT kick-off on BT Sport
Liverpool have now lost three of their last four in all competitions and the next few days are defining for their season.
Not necessarily in terms of the Premier League title, as that would take an absolute catastrophe to give up now, but they will have one eye on their big Champions League clash with Atletico on Wednesday.
With their FA Cup campaign coming to an end at Chelsea in midweek, their season could essentially be done and dusted in terms of knowing what they will and won't achieve.
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A poor result against relegation-threatened Bournemouth would do their confidence further damage and this recent blip has them looking a little vulnerable for once.
The injury to Jordan Henderson has hurt them, but you would expect them to return to winning ways here. They are unbeaten at Anfield in 54 Premier League games after all. Plus, Joe Gomez should be back.
It can be difficult to find value in a home win at Anfield, so the temptation is to look at cards and a relatively inexperienced man in Bournemouth's defence.
Jack Stacey impressed at right-back against Chelsea last weekend and should keep his place in the side. But facing Liverpool is another level, with Andrew Robertson, Sadio Mane and another midfielder coming at you in waves down their left-hand side.
The 23-year-old, a summer arrival from Luton, has just two bookings to his name this term, both away from home (one came at Arsenal), and in a big game like this he could easily get caught out by referee Paul Tierney.
With this, and the 7/1 best price in mind, a small play on Stacey to be carded looks worth chancing.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Jack Stacey to be carded at 7/1
Opta stats
- Liverpool have won their last five Premier League matches against Bournemouth by an aggregate score of 17-0.
- The last 17 goals scored in this Premier League fixture have been scored by Liverpool – the only side Liverpool have scored more consecutive goals against without reply is West Bromwich Albion (26 between 2002-2011).
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 54 Premier League home games (W44 D10), with the Reds winning the last 21 in a row. Victory here will set a new outright record for most consecutive home wins in English top-flight history.
- Bournemouth have lost eight of their last nine away games in the Premier League, winning the other 1-0 at Chelsea in December. Indeed, 60% of Bournemouth’s total points won on the road this season (6/10) came in their first three away games (W2 D0 L1).
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored in all five of his Premier League appearances against Bournemouth, netting seven goals in total. The only other player in Premier League history to score in 100% of his games against an opponent (min. 5 games) is Chris Wood against West Ham.
- 87% of Mohamed Salah’s Premier League goals this season have been scored at home (13/15), the highest ratio of any player to have netted at least 10 this term.
Odds correct as of 1700 GMT on 05/03/2020