Mark your card for Saturday's Premier League games with George Pitts providing a best bet and score prediction for each clash.
Recommended bets
2pts Liverpool -2 on corner handicap v Watford at 5/4
1pt Michail Antonio to score anytime in West Ham v Southampton at 3/1
0.5pt Luka Milivojevic to score anytime in Brighton v Crystal Palace at 6/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Watford v Liverpool
- 1730 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
Liverpool faced a real test in the second half on Monday when they had to come from behind against West Ham in the last half hour or so to preserve their unbeaten campaign.
Pablo Fornals' surprise strike gave the Reds an uphill task and at one stage it looked like they would not be able to find a way through.
But they persisted, with the help of a rare Lukasz Fabianski error, and not only got back on level terms but sealed a winner through Sadio Mane.
They face another bottom-three side in Watford, whose honeymoon period under Nigel Pearson is well and truly over.
The Hornets have failed to win their last six in all competitions and that sort of form is never welcome, never mind when the unbeaten leaders come to town.
Most teams step up for the visit of the big dogs though - as they did at Anfield for Pearson's first game in charge - but a best price of 7/1 to win shows just how difficult the task is.
- Follow the action with our live blog - including updates, stats, tips and goal clips
This Liverpool team just keep on winning and they are so close to that first Premier League title now. Finding value in their games can be tough but there are some appealing prices on the corners.
Jurgen Klopp's men have the third-highest corner total in the league this season, with 177 - Man City (221) and Chelsea (178) are the teams above them - while Watford are third bottom on 122.
The Reds average seven corners per game on the road and, with them expected to dominate, the corner handicap prices stand out.
They can soon rack up the corner count with the pressure on and the odds-against price for them to have three or more corners than Watford looks too good to turn down and is probably the best bet of the day in the Premier League on Saturday.
Score prediction: Watford 0-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: Liverpool -2 on corner handicap at 5/4
Opta stats
- Watford are winless in their last eight Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D1 L7), losing each of the last four by an aggregate score of 0-15.
- Under Jürgen Klopp, Liverpool have scored more Premier League goals against Watford than they have vs any other side in the competition (27 in nine games).
- At least one side has scored three goals in five of the six Premier League meetings between Watford and Liverpool at Vicarage Road, with the exception being a 1-0 win for Liverpool in May 2017.
- Since beating Liverpool 2-1 on the final day of the 1982-83 season, Watford have lost 15 of their 16 top-flight matches against sides top of the table (D1), including each of the last 13 in a row.
- Liverpool have won their last 18 Premier League games; another win here would set a new record for most consecutive victories in English top-flight history.
- Liverpool conceded more goals in their 3-2 win against West Ham last time out than they had in their previous 11 Premier League matches combined (1). They’ve not conceded more than once in consecutive league games since December 2016.
- All 24 of Watford’s Premier League goals this season have been scored from inside the box. In Premier League history, there has been just two occasions of a team scoring 100% of their total goals from inside the area, with Middlesbrough (35) and Man City (33) both doing so in 1995-96.
- Liverpool’s Sadio Mané has either scored or assisted in all six of his Premier League games against Watford for Liverpool, scoring five goals and assisting four in these matches.
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored eight goals in his five Premier League games against Watford, netting both goals in the Reds’ 2-0 victory in the reverse fixture this season.
- Troy Deeney is Watford’s top Premier League scorer this season with five goals, with all of these strikes coming in a seven-game spell in December and January.
Brighton v Crystal Palace
- 1230 GMT kick-off on BT Sport
The early kick-off brings us the M23 derby, a fierce rivalry that perhaps goes unnoticed to other supporters but it is the one that matters most to fans of these two sides.
Given their positions these teams are in, the stakes are even higher. Palace may still be nine points clear of the drop, but only thanks to their first Premier League win of 2020, which came at the hands of Newcastle last weekend, and they will want to put another run together.
The glaring issue for them still remains goals but good link up play between Christian Benteke, Andros Townsend and Wilfried Zaha could give them hope.
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Brighton have also had difficulty converting chances. Creation is not a problem but finding the back of the net is and Albion are now the only side without a league win in this calendar year.
This one has all the hallmarks of a draw, one which the Seagulls may rue if they waste more chances after dominating possession as they continue to play football that is pleasing on the eye under Graham Potter.
Those sort of games suit Palace, where they can grind an opponent down and steal a point. The method of that goal is still difficult to call, but with how this game is expected to pan out then it would be no surprise if it came from the spot.
With how VAR has been this season, Wilfried Zaha's ability to draw in fouls in the final third and the occasional sloppiness in defence from Brighton, the anytime price on Luka Milivojevic could be worth a small play.
The Serbian is a master from the spot and, if he does not find the back of the net, he is likely to go in the book on a derby like this.
He has nine cautions and a red to his name this term in all competitions, with the last couple of yellows coming in recent tight away clashes. He is 2/1 to be shown a card but there is preference to back him to get on the score sheet.
Not only does he take penalties, he also takes the odd set piece and has had nine shots in his last five Premier League appearances - so he is due a goal and actively trying.
Palace have scored three spot-kicks this term and if they are chasing the game then they can look no further than Milivojevic.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best bet: Luka Milivojevic to score anytime at 6/1
Opta stats
- No side is currently on a longer winless run in the Premier League than Brighton, with the Seagulls winless in all seven of their league games in 2020 so far (D5 L2). Indeed, Brighton are the only one of the 91 current Football League sides not to have won a game in any competition so far this calendar year.
- Brighton have conceded first in each of their last four Premier League games, but have come back to draw each of their last three. However, the Seagulls have never won a Premier League home game when conceding first (D10 L14).
- Crystal Palace are looking to win back-to-back Premier League games for the first time since December. However, the Eagles are winless in their last six Premier League away games (D4 L2).
- This will be Roy Hodgson’s 100th Premier League game in charge of Crystal Palace (W33 D27 L39), the first club he’s reached the milestone within the competition. His win rate with the Eagles in the Premier League is 33%, his lowest at any of the five clubs he’s taken charge of.
- Including play-offs, Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored more league goals against Brighton than he has vs any other side (6).
- Brighton’s Glenn Murray has scored six goals in his last eight appearances in Brighton vs Crystal Palace matches in all competition (2 for Palace, 4 for Brighton), netting in each of his last four for the Seagulls.
- Crystal Palace winger Wilfried Zaha is averaging a Premier League goal or assist every 394 minutes this season (3 goals, 3 assists in 2365 minutes). Last season, the Ivorian was involved in a goal every 203 minutes (10 goals, 5 assists in 3040 minutes).
Bournemouth v Chelsea
Eddie Howe's Bournemouth have won back-to-back home games in the Premier League to boost their hopes of survival and they can do just that here as they look to do the double over Chelsea.
That December win at Stamford Bridge seems a long time ago now, but it did little to inspire them as it came in the middle of a long run that dragged them back into a relegation fight. They now sit just two points clear of West Ham in 18th while Chelsea are nervously gripping on to fourth spot with Man United closing the gap to three points and Spurs close behind.
Frank Lampard's side face a test of their mental resilience after a 3-0 home thrashing to Bayern Munich in the Champions League. Will they bounce back or will they suffer further damage? That is the big question and you would not be confidently backing them at 4/5.
Tammy Abraham is a doubt after reportedly pulling up in the warm down at Stamford Bridge on Tuesday and without him Chelsea need Olivier Giroud and the attacking midfielders to step up.
Bournemouth, though, are not consistent enough and Chelsea should just about get the victory. But, with renewed confidence, they will put up a fight against a side with defensive frailties, so the shots market is worth looking at in the Cherries' favour.
Chelsea concede an average of 16 shots per game this season and with Callum Wilson back leading the line, supported by Josh King and Harry Wilson, they could pepper them with shots and they can be backed at 6/4 to have 13 or more shots - a market which covers blocked and wayward efforts.
But, due to both sides' unpredictability and the short odds in this market, there are preferred fancies elsewhere.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: Price Boosted to 14/1)
Best bet: Bournemouth to have 13+ total shots at 6/4
Opta stats
- Bournemouth have won three of their last four Premier League meetings with Chelsea (L1), including the last two in a row. They’re looking to complete the league double over Chelsea for the very first time.
- None of the nine previous Premier League meetings between Bournemouth and Chelsea have been drawn (4 wins for Bournemouth, 5 for Chelsea), with the away side winning six of the nine games (67%).
- Chelsea are looking to secure consecutive Premier League victories for the first time since a run of six between September-November. The Blues are still winless away from home in the Premier League in 2020 (D2 L1).
- Chelsea have conceded 45% of the shots on target they’ve faced in the Premier League this season (37/83), more than any other side. Indeed, it’s the highest such ratio any side has conceded in a single season since this data is available (2003-04).
- Chelsea striker Olivier Giroud netted his first Premier League goal of the season last time out against Spurs – the Frenchman has been involved in five goals in his three league starts against Bournemouth (1 goal, 4 assists).
Newcastle v Burnley
A game that does not exactly scream goals - a one-nil, maybe 0-0 even.
Two sides that have shown they have enough to stay up, but they have managers who are much more conservative in style and a point would probably please both Steve Bruce and Sean Dyche here.
Newcastle are lacking a striker who knows where the back of the net is and an injury to Andy Carroll has left them even shorter, relying on Joelinton through the middle. They have a decent record at St James' Park this term, but have scored just 12 goals in 13 games on Tyneside this term. Five of those games have ended in a draw.
Burnley's away form has improved to be fair, with four wins and three draws from 13, managing just 14 goals in total.
It was tempting to back the unders, but there is a market for 0-1 goals in total at a more tempting 9/5.
Score prediction: Newcastle 0-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Best bet: 0-1 total goals at 9/5
Opta stats
- There have been just 24 goals scored in Newcastle’s 13 Premier League home games this season (F12 A12) – no other side’s home games have seen fewer. Only in 1980-81 has St James’ Park seen a lower goals-per-game ratio (1.7) than the 1.8 there this term.
- Newcastle are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), and have failed to score in their last three. The Magpies last went four in a row without a goal in September 2015.
- Burnley have won four of their last five Premier League games (D1), as many as they had in their previous 14 in the competition (W4 D0 L10).
- Newcastle have faced more shots on target than any other Premier League side so far this season (158). Only once since 2003-04 has a team faced as many as 5.9 shots on target per game in a Premier League campaign and avoided relegation (Sunderland in 2015-16).
- No side has scored a higher share of their Premier League goals from set-piece situations (excluding penalties) than Newcastle this season (50% - 12/24). However, Burnley have conceded a league-low 5% of their goals this term from such situations (2/39).
- Of players to have played at least 900 minutes in the Premier League this season, Newcastle’s Allan Saint-Maximin has embarked on more dribbles per 90 minutes than any other player (9.7). He’s beaten an opponent with 58% of these, the third highest among players to have attempted at least 100.
- Newcastle striker Joelinton has gone 24 games, 1946 minutes and attempted 35 shots since his last Premier League goal against Tottenham in August.
West Ham v Southampton
I have had an eye on this game for a while with a goalscorer in mind at around 9/2, until he picked up an injury against Liverpool to keep him sidelined for around three weeks.
A blow for both our Premier League tips and for Tomas Soucek so early in his West Ham career, but we shall stick with the goals market and with another Hammers player.
David Moyes' side are in desperate need of a win as they sit in the final relegation spot, but a repeat performance of Monday's defeat at Liverpool should go some way to delivering that here.
The trouble is that they are inevitably going to raise their game against the league leaders, but against a fellow bottom-half side in front of your own nervy fans it is a different question.
Ralph Hasenhuttl's Saints have been better away from home this term, collecting 20 of their 34 points. Only the current top four have a better away record and that is why they go into the game as 13/8 favourites.
They are prone to a lapse, though, and you cannot back them at this price. There is hope from West Ham that they can continue their display and this squad looks too strong overall to go down.
The interest is with the stand-in striker Michail Antonio, with the utility man preferred to lead the line over expensive summer buy Sebastian Haller.
With Antonio in this role, the 3/1 anytime price looks overpriced (with the system probably still believing he is a winger) and it is therefore worth a small play.
The 29-year-old has shown over the years that he knows where the back of the net is and he will be keen to add to his one-goal tally this term.
He has had 10 shots in his last four appearances - six at home to Brighton - and averages over two per match over the course of the campaign.
After Monday's display, Moyes will have little reason to change things, with the exception of Soucek dropping out, and Antonio anytime is an area which represents value considering his role in this team and recent displays.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Michail Antonio to score anytime at 3/1
Opta stats
- West Ham have won each of their last four Premier League games against Southampton – only against Blackburn between 2006-2008 have the Hammers had a longer winning run against an opponent in the competition (5).
- After drawing their first Premier League away game against West Ham (3-3 in May 1994), none of Southampton’s last 16 visits to the Hammers in the competition has ended level (W4 L12).
- West Ham have won more Premier League games overall (17) and more Premier League home games (12) against Southampton than they have against any other side.
- No side has won fewer Premier League points at home than West Ham this season (12). Meanwhile, Southampton have won a league-high share 59% of their points away from home this term (20/34).
- Since beating Fulham 3-1 in February 2019, West Ham have lost their last 17 Premier League games when conceding the first goal; both the longest current run in the division and West Ham’s longest such losing run in the competition.
- Since (and including) a 2-1 win against Watford at the end of November to end an eight-game winless run in the Premier League, Southampton have earned 25 points from their 14 Premier League games (W8 D1 L5). Only the current top two sides Liverpool and Man City have earned more in that time.
- West Ham have dropped 22 points from leading positions in the Premier League this season, more than any other side. In no campaign in the competition have the Hammers dropped more points (also 22 in 2010-11 and 2016-17).
- West Ham defender Issa Diop has scored two goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he had in his previous 52 in the competition. 75% of the Frenchman’s goals in the competition have been scored in his six games in 2020 (3/4).
- Southampton’s Pierre-Emile Højbjerg has had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season (39).
- Southampton’s Stuart Armstrong has scored three goals in his last five Premier League games, as many as he had in his first 44 appearances in the competition
Odds correct as of 1700 GMT on 27/02/20
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