Premier League tips: Betting previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's action including Chelsea and Manchester City
Mark your card for Saturday's Premier League games with our best bets and score predictions.
Recommended bets
0.5pts John McGinn to score anytime at 4/1
0.5pts Ross Barkley to score anytime at 7/2
1pt Over 1.5 total goals in the second half of Leicester v Burnley at 117/100
1pt Watford to have 12+ shots v Tottenham at 13/8
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Crystal Palace v Manchester City
- 1730 BST kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
The international break came at a good time for Manchester City, allowing some of their injured players time to recover.
Kevin De Bruyne and John Stones were pictured in first team training this week and their return will provide Pep Guardiola's side with a much-needed boost.
De Bruyne is the bigger deal and a key player for the Citizens, already registering nine assists and two goals in eight appearances this term. He missed their loss to Wolves and started on the bench in the defeat at Norwich, which is no coincidence as he is the heartbeat of the team.
With him seemingly available this weekend, you would expect Man City to bounce back, but Palace are well organised under Roy Hodgson and it may not be eight like the game after their last defeat.
Even with Stones back, City's defence is still suspect without Aymeric Laporte and Palace can trouble the back line. They have not kept a clean sheet away from home since the opening game of the season and the high-flying Eagles can at least get on score sheet.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: BTTS at 10/11
Key stats
- Crystal Palace are looking to secure three consecutive Premier League wins within the same season for the first time since May 2018. The Eagles have alternated between a draw and a win over their last six Premier League home games.
- There have been 19 Premier League goals scored this season following a move of 10+ passes – eight of them have been scored by Manchester City (42%), while no other side has scored more than two such goals.
- In Man City boss Pep Guardiola’s managerial league career, the only English manager he’s ever lost to is Crystal Palace’s Roy Hodgson (2-3 at the Etihad, December 2018).
- Only at Anfield (7) has Man City striker Sergio Agüero played more Premier League games without finding the net than he has at Selhurst Park (6).
- Jordan Ayew’s three Premier League goals this season have been worth six points to Crystal Palace – only Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s goals have been more valuable to a side (9).
Everton v West Ham
- 1230 BST kick-off on BT Sport
Everton may have upped their performance in their last outing at Goodison, but that was against the Premier League champions in Man City and they followed that up with a disappointing result at Burnley.
The Toffees have now lost four in a row and the pressure is cranking up on Marco Silva. A poor result here would be telling with the reaction of the home crowd, who to date cannot see any real direction under the Portuguese and he is currently odds-on to be the next top-flight manager to leave his job.
Despite all their work on the training ground, the Toffees are yet to score from a set piece and have conceded five, so do not be surprised to see the Hammers exploit that here.
Manuel Pellegrini's West Ham are eighth having started the season pretty well, but the home defeat at Palace last time out means they are now without a win in three in all competitions.
Promising news for Hammers fans is the fact they are unbeaten on the road in the league this term and they can be confident of piling the misery on their hosts. They have drawn three times on the road, but have threatening options going forward and can start afresh after the international break.
With Everton's dodgy home record - they've conceded at least two goals in all of their last three at Goodison, a far cry from last season - and things just aren't clicking, so backing the visitors is all the more tempting. They are available at just under 2/1 in a draw no bet, a nice added insurance in case the Londoners are to share the points once again.
Prediction: Everton 0-2 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 22/1)
Best bet: West Ham in a draw no bet at 48/25
Key stats
- Everton lost this exact fixture 1-3 last season – they haven’t lost consecutive home games against West Ham in the top-flight since March 1930.
- Both of West Ham’s Premier League defeats this season have been in home games – the Hammers are unbeaten in six away games in the competition (W3 D3), their longest run on the road since January 2009 (7).
- Everton are winless in their last eight early Saturday kick-offs (D3 L5), since beating Chelsea 3-1 in September 2015 thanks to a Steven Naismith hat-trick.
- Only Watford (3.5%) have a lower shot conversion rate than Everton (5.8%) in the Premier League this season. The Toffees have found the net with just one of their last 47 attempts in the competition.
Aston Villa v Brighton and Hove Albion
Brighton may have pulled off an impressive home win over Tottenham before the international break, but Graham Potter's side have been struggling away from home and Aston Villa can look to capitalise on that to record back-to-back victories.
After a stuttered start to life in the top flight, Dean Smith's side are finding their feet with a 5-1 thrashing at Norwich last time out. They have now registered at least two goals in their last three outings, so the 11/10 for them to net two or more here looks decent.
But it is hard to look past John McGinn in the anytime goalscorer market.
The Scottish midfielder netted a hat-trick for his country last week, albeit against San Marino, to take his tally for for club and country this season to seven. He has scored two in his last two Premier League appearances and averages three shots per game, more than any other Villa player.
With these stats in mind, McGinn is a man in form and enjoying life in the top flight and the 4/1 on him to find the back of the net looks generous.
Granted, his run will surely come to an end soon, but against a poor away side and in front of his own fans, backing McGinn is worth a small play considering the odds.
Super 6 prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: John McGinn to score anytime at 4/1
Key stats
- Aston Villa have scored at least twice in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since April 2010. They last did so in four in a row in April 2008.
- Wesley has been involved in five goals in his last six Premier League games (4 goals, 1 assist), and is Aston Villa’s top scorer in the competition this season (4).
- Brighton have failed to score in 23 of their 42 Premier League away games, including six of their last eight on the road. Among teams to have played in more than two full Premier League campaigns, Brighton have failed to score in the highest ratio of away games (55%).
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AFC Bournemouth v Norwich City
Norwich have had plenty of positives to take from this season, including that famous victory over Man City, but just two wins from nine in all competitions has got to be a worry and they have struggled on the road.
The 5-1 thrashing at home to Aston Villa last time out may prove to be a wake up call, although it has to be said they have been incredibly unfortunate with injuries.
As is the case with many games at the Vitality, this could well be one for the BTTS. Norwich can at least get on the score sheet and they are well priced to bag at least one, but the preference is to avoid this clash due to the Canaries' unpredictability.
Super 6 prediction: Bournemouth 1-1 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best bet: Norwich to score 1+ goals at 1/3
Key stats
- Bournemouth and Norwich are the only Premier League sides yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Norwich have conceded more goals than any other side (21).
- Since they were promoted to the Premier League in 2015, Bournemouth have had 90 games in which both teams have scored in the competition – only Leicester (93) and Arsenal (92) have had more in that time.
Chelsea v Newcastle United
As stated in our recent analysis of Arsenal's season, the disarray at Tottenham and Manchester United this season means some other sides are going fairly unnoticed and are going quietly about their business and this can also be said for Chelsea.
Frank Lampard's side sit fifth in the table and have lost just one of their last seven in the Premier League and their games have been filled with goals - five of their last six have had over 2.5 in total.
Newcastle made the most of a Man United crisis to get a great win at St James' Park, but the international could have halted their progress and they do not look like they have the goals in them to continue such a run. The Blues might even make it back-to-back home clean sheets.
There was a temptation to back the hosts to score 3+ at 11/10, but Ross Barkley is a more appealing price to get on the score sheet at 7/2.
The midfielder had a promising pre-season for Chelsea but his performances nose-dived and he has seen his Premier League involvement reduced. After his brace for England in midweek, Lampard could see it as a good opportunity to bring him back into the fold and Barkley needs to take his chance after seeing team-mate Mason Mount thrive in the team.
Barkley averages three shots per game in the league and, if he gets the nod, the 25-year-old will be keen to make his mark to ease the pressure from Chelsea fans, who have been slightly frustrated with his displays so far this season.
Super 6 prediction: Chelsea 3-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Ross Barkley to score anytime at 7/2
Key stats
- Chelsea have won their last six Premier League home games against Newcastle, scoring 17 goals and conceding three.
- Newcastle have won just one of their last 25 away league games against Chelsea (D7 L17), winning 2-0 under Alan Pardew in May 2012.
- Excluding own goals, Chelsea have scored 13 Premier League goals through English players this season, at least five more than any other side.
- Chelsea’s Tammy Abraham is the first English player to score as many as eight goals in his side’s first eight Premier League games of a season since Wayne Rooney in 2011-12 (9).
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Leicester City v Burnley
Leicester came so close to ending Liverpool's winning run before the international break, with a controversial late penalty rescuing the league leaders at Anfield.
The Foxes remain in fourth and they can continue their impressive start, but it will not be easy as they come up against a different sort of opponent in Burnley.
Brendan Rodgers' side have won their last three at the King Power and, while Sean Dyche's Clarets have improved their Turf Moor form again with nine points from 12, they are yet to win away from home but have drawn three of four.
It points so much in the hosts' favour that it would be no surprise to see Burnley get something here, so the preferred option is to look at a market that does not rely on the final outcome.
The odds-against price for two or more goals to come after the interval looks most appealing as both sides have seen more action in the second half of games this season.
Leicester have scored seven of their 10 home goals in the second half, while there have been a total of seven second-half goals in Burnley's four away games, so it plays in favour of the market here.
Super 6 prediction: Leicester 2-2 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
Best bet: Over 1.5 total goals in the second half at 117/100
Key stats
- Burnley are winless in their last six away league games (D2 L4), though the last three have all ended level and featured an equaliser in the final 10 minutes (2 for Burnley, 1 against).
- Leicester are unbeaten in six home league games (W4 D2), winning the last three in a row by an aggregate score of 10-2. They last won more in a row at the King Power Stadium between February-May 2017 (a run of five).
- Since Brendan Rodgers’ first league game in charge of Leicester on March 3rd, only Liverpool (52), Man City (46) and Chelsea (33) have won more Premier League points than the Foxes (31).
Tottenham Hotspur v Watford
Tottenham could really do with a win, regardless of performance.
The defeat at Brighton may have left them only ninth in the table, but they have won just two of their last 10 in all competitions, Mauricio Pochettino looks deflated and a lot of their squad is unsettled. A home clash with struggling Watford could be just what they need.
Quique Sanchez Flores is still waiting for his first league win since returning to Vicarage Road, although he has had to face Arsenal, Man City, Wolves and then Tottenham to be fair.
The Hornets are the only winless side in the top flight and have a -16 goal difference, but they are still creating chances with Opta's expected goals (see below) putting them on 11 for the season rather than four.
They average 14 shots per game this term while Spurs' unconvincing defence means Pochettino's side concede on average 16 shots per game. With this in mind, backing the visitors in the shots market presents a good price.
They are evens to have 11 or more and 13/8 to have 12 or more. This includes blocked shots, headers, wayward efforts and anything else. Considering their stats so far, this looks like a great option for their first trip to the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Super 6 prediction: Spurs 2-1 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Watford to have 12+ shots at 13/8
Key stats
- Watford have scored just four Premier League goals this season, but based on Opta’s expected goals (xG), the quality of chances they’ve had means they should have scored 11 – giving them the biggest negative difference between goals and xG in the division (7).
- Tottenham have lost five of their last 33 Premier League meetings with sides starting the day bottom of the table (W23 D5 L5) – all five of those defeats have been against teams beginning with ‘W’ (West Ham, Wigan and West Brom x3).
- Spurs have won six of their nine Premier League home games since moving into the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (W6 D1 L2), including winning three of their four such games this term.
- Tottenham have lost more games in all competitions in 2019 than any other Premier League side (17). The last calendar year in which they lost more games was 2008 (19).
Wolves v Southampton
A run of three defeats in a row has left Southampton in 17th, leading to inevitable whispers about Ralph Hasenhuttl in regards to the sack race, especially after Ross Wilson - the man key in his appointment him - left for Rangers this week.
Wolves, meanwhile, after a poor start, have leapfrogged the Saints and have now won three and drawn two of their last five. This one really is tough to call and that is the reason for predicting a draw.
Ruben Neves could be worth looking at for a small play to score outside the box - the Portuguese midfielder averages over a shot per game from 18 yards or more - but Nathan Redmond to get on the score sheet at 11/2 is the one that catches the eye.
The winger plays a key supporting role to his team's front line and he averages more shots per game (2.7) than any other Saints player this term.
He has just one goal to his name so far, but he gets in the positions to create chances and more goals will surely flow. At this price against a Wolves defence which has already conceded 11 goals this term, it is well worth considering.
Super 6 prediction: Wolves 1-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Nathan Redmond to score anytime at 11/2
Key stats
- Southampton have won three of their four Premier League meetings with Wolves (L1). All four meetings between the two sides in the competition have been won by a margin of two or more goals.
- No Premier League side have kept more away clean sheets in all competitions this season than Southampton (4). Saints have kept four clean sheets in six away games this term – just two fewer than they’d kept in 23 on the road last season.
- Southampton’s Danny Ings is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since January 2015. All three league games he’s scored in this season have ended in defeat, more than any other player in the competition.
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Odds correct as of 1500 BST on 17/10/19
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