After profits courtesy of the Manchester derby, George Pitts looks ahead to Saturday's 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League with the best bets and key stats.
Recommended bets
1pt Everton to have 5+ shots on target at 5/4
0.5pt Cardiff to win to nil at 5/1
0.5pt Nathan Redmond to score and Southampton to win at 4/1
1pt Diogo Jota to score anytime at 11/4
For advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Fixtures
- Crystal Palace v Everton
- Fulham v Cardiff City
- Southampton v AFC Bournemouth
- Watford v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Crystal Palace v Everton
Two mid-table teams who raised their game to secure shock victories over top-four-chasing opponents last weekend.
Crystal Palace are now officially safe after passing the 40-point mark with a 3-2 win at Arsenal, ending the Gunners' unbeaten run at the Emirates in the process.
Everton, meanwhile, extended their own home sequence to four matches without defeat by thrashing Man United 4-0 at Goodison Park. It was their fifth win in eight and puts them on course for a top-half finish.
The Toffees' last seven Premier League victories have all come courtesy of clean sheets and if you fancy them to win on Saturday, they are 4/1 to win-to-nil at Selhurst. It is tempting, but preference is to look at the bigger picture - it has to end sooner or later and Palace have not failed to score at home in the league since the end of December.
Everton will be hoping for an improved display in London after losing in the capital two weeks ago, a dreadful performance at Fulham, and the expectation is that they will be buoyed by their latest victory and edge past the Eagles.
Rather than get involved in a tricky game to call, Everton to have at least five shots on target at a tempting 5/4 is considered the best way into this from a punting perspective.
Five shots on target against a mid-table opponent who have the second-worst home record in the league is not a big ask.
They have recorded 8, 6, 9 and 8 shots on target in their last four wins and with the creativity in Gylfi Sigurdsson, Richarlison, Bernard and Dominic Calvert-Lewin going forward, they can put pressure on a defence that has conceded 20 goals on home soil this term.
If you fancy Palace to get on the score sheet, Everton to win and both teams to score is 4/1 but the preference is to back the visitors in the shots on target market.
Super 6 prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Everton to have 5+ shots on target at 5/4
Opta facts
- Crystal Palace are winless in their last eight Premier League meetings with Everton (D4 L4) since a 3-2 win at Goodison Park in September 2014.
- Everton are unbeaten in their last seven away games against Crystal Palace in the Premier League (W4 D3), with their last defeat against them at Selhurst Park coming in October 1994.
- Crystal Palace have alternated between victory and defeat in their last nine Premier League games, winning 3-2 at Arsenal last time out.
- Only Huddersfield (8) have won fewer home points in the Premier League this season than Crystal Palace (16). Indeed, the Eagles have won 10 points more on the road (26) than they have at Selhurst Park this season (16), the biggest such difference in the competition.
- Everton have won four of their last five Premier League games (L1), as many as they had in their previous 17 (W4 D3 L10). They’ve kept a clean sheet in each victory, losing their last eight games in a row in which they’ve conceded at least once.
- Everton have won four points from their four Premier League games in London this season (W1 D1 L2). They last won more points in the capital in the 2014-15 campaign (W3 D0 L3).
- Crystal Palace’s Christian Benteke netted his first Premier League goal of the season last time out against Arsenal – the Belgian last netted in back-to-back games in April 2017.
- Everton’s Gylfi Sigurdsson has been involved in seven Premier League goals against Crystal Palace (3 goals, 4 assists), only against Manchester United (9) has he been involved in more in the competition.
- Luka Milivojevic has scored 50% of Crystal Palace’s home Premier League goals this season (7/14). The Serbian is the only Palace player to score more than once at Selhurst Park this term.
- Crystal Palace’s Wilfried Zaha has scored nine Premier League goals this season – he’s never reached double figures in a single top-flight campaign before. However, eight of his nine goals this term have come away from home.
Fulham v Cardiff City
The clock is ticking and it really is now or never for Cardiff to keep their hopes of Premier League survival alive.
Neil Warnock's men won at Brighton last week to give them hope of avoiding the drop, before losing 2-0 to title-chasing Liverpool on Sunday. The Bluebirds now sit three points adrift of 17th-place Brighton with three games to go - including Manchester United on the final day - and they can consider themselves unlucky after playing well and getting nothing on a number of occasions.
You would think a fixture against relegated Fulham would be favourable, so it is rather typical that the Cottagers have now recorded back-to-back wins under Scott Parker.
They were, though, against mid-table Everton and Bournemouth and the feeling is that Cardiff's fight and determination will help them do the double over Fulham and return to Wales with the points.
They won to nil in their last away outing at Brighton and Warnock will have the visitors set up to grind out a result here. They are in the top half of the Premier League clean sheets table with nine, while Fulham sit bottom having recorded four all campaign, and that could be the difference.
For Cardiff to win with a clean sheet, you can get an attractive best price of 5/1. It is a risk and worth only a small play, but they are fancied to keep their survival hopes alive for another week at least.
Super 6 prediction: Fulham v Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Cardiff to win to nil at 5/1
Opta facts
- Fulham have lost just one of their last eight meetings with Cardiff in all competitions (W3 D4), though it was the reverse fixture back in October (2-4).
- Cardiff have won all three of their Premier League meetings with Fulham, picking up a 2-1 victory in their only previous visit to Craven Cottage in the competition.
- The home side hasn’t lost any of the last 23 Premier League meetings between two promoted clubs (W15 D8), since Leicester won 1-0 at Burnley in April 2015. The last seven sides to win away at a fellow promoted side have all avoided relegation.
- Cardiff have lost nine of their 11 previous Premier League games in London (W1 D1 L9), with their only victory in the capital coming at Fulham in September 2013.
- Fulham have won their last two Premier League games, last winning three in a row in the competition back in March 2012 under Martin Jol.
- Fulham have kept a clean sheet in their last two Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 37 games in the competition.
- Cardiff have lost seven of their last nine league games (W2), conceding at least twice in each loss while keeping a clean sheet in both wins.
- Cardiff are looking to secure back-to-back top-flight away wins for the first time since February 1957, having won at Brighton in their last game on the road.
- Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored the winning goal in five of Fulham’s six Premier League victories this season. The Serbian has scored the highest percentage of his side’s winners among all players in the competition this season (83%).
- Cardiff’s Bobby Reid has scored in each of his four league starts against Fulham in the league, also providing an assist in the Bluebirds’ 4-2 win in the reverse fixture in October. In fact, against no side has he scored more league goals than he has against Fulham (4).
Southampton v AFC Bournemouth
Southampton's point at Watford in midweek saw them edge closer to safety and they can confirm their status with a win over south coast rivals Bournemouth on Saturday.
They were denied all three points in the Vicarage Road clash after Andre Gray's late equaliser for the Hornets, Saints having taken an early lead when Shane Long broke the record for the quickest goal in Premier League history at 7.69 seconds.
Ralph Hasenhuttl got a positive reaction from his side after a disappointing defeat at Newcastle days before and they can guarantee their place in the top-flight by beating an inconsistent Cherries side coasting towards the end of the campaign.
Granted, Eddie Howe's men did thrash Brighton 5-0 in their last away outing, but they have won just twice in their last 11 and have fallen too far adrift to finish in the top half.
Saints can finish strongly with West Ham and Huddersfield to follow this clash, but Hasenhuttl will not be looking beyond Saturday and that focus may well be rewarded.
Since his arrival, Southampton's form at St Mary's has improved dramatically. They have won three of their last four on home soil and that defeat was against title-chasing Liverpool where their performance warranted at least a point.
One player who has raised his game under the Austrian boss is Nathan Redmond and the price on him to get on the score sheet catches the eye. He is around 3/1 anytime and 4/1 in a score-and-win double despite scoring a brace in his last home appearance.
The England winger has been used in a more central role by Hasenhuttl and he has had nine shots in his last three games. He had as many as five in their home win over Fulham a couple of months ago and should partner Danny Ings for this clash.
Against a Bournemouth side which lost to Scott Parker's relegated Fulham last time out, Redmond should fancy his chances.
Super 6 prediction: Southampton 3-1 AFC Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Best bet: Nathan Redmond to score and Southampton to win at 4/1
Opta facts
- Southampton have lost just one of their last 11 meetings with Bournemouth in all competitions (W6 D4), a 0-2 loss in March 2016.
- Bournemouth have never won away against Southampton in any competition, drawing five and losing nine of their 14 meetings.
- Southampton have won three of their last four home league games, as many as they had in their previous 24 at St Mary’s (W3 D11 L10).
- Southampton have scored at least once in their last 12 Premier League home games – only Man City (19), Arsenal (17) and Liverpool (13) are enjoying a longer such run in the competition.
- After a run of nine consecutive away league defeats, Bournemouth have won two of their last three on the road. The Cherries’ last away game saw them pick up their biggest ever top-flight away win (5-0 vs Brighton).
- None of Bournemouth’s last 20 away league games has ended in a draw (W6 L14), with the winning side netting at least twice every time.
- In the last five Premier League games in which he’s scored, Bournemouth’s Ryan Fraser has also provided at least one assist – the longest such run in the competition’s history.
- Southampton’s Danny Ings has only scored in one of his last eight home league appearances, scoring twice in Saints’ 3-2 win against Arsenal in December.
- Southampton’s Shane Long has scored in his last two home appearances in the Premier League, having netted in just one of his previous 32. He’s never scored in three successive home games in the competition before.
- Just two of Bournemouth striker Josh King’s 11 Premier League goals this season have come away from home, with the Norwegian’s last seven coming at home.
Watford v Wolves
A big match for two clubs, one which could determine who finishes best of the rest in the Premier League. Three weeks after meeting in the FA Cup semi-final, can Wolves get redemption for that remarkable defeat?
Javi Gracia's side won after extra-time at Wembley to reach the May showpiece against Man City. It appeared to have a knock-on effect too, as Wolves failed to win their next two to fall behind in the race for seventh having looked set to reach the FA Cup final until a late turnaround.
But after Watford snatched a point against Southampton in midweek, Wolves beat another top-four side at Molinuex in Arsenal, scoring three in 17 first-half minutes to put them on their way to victory.
It really is a tough one to call and should it end in a draw then Everton can make ground in the race for seventh.
Wolves have been less convincing away from home but have still won six and drawn five and the expectation is that they will use their midweek performance as a springboard to get revenge in Hertfordshire.
Backing them draw-no-bet at evens is a good option which provides you with insurance in the event of the points being shared, but the preference is to go for another odds-against bet in the scoring markets.
The 11/4 available on Diogo Jota to get on the score sheet is an appealing option which does not rely on the final outcome.
Jota has developed a great understanding with Raul Jimenez up front for Wolves and the 22-year-old, who has nine goals in all competitions this season, is available anytime at what looks a generous price.
He scored against Arsenal in midweek, a starring performance, and has had nine shots in his last three games. His last six goals have come at Molineux, which may tempt you into backing Jimenez at 21/10 instead, but Jota has still been trying his luck.
If Wolves are to get something from this game, then Jota will be key as he was in midweek and at the prices he's preferred.
Super 6 prediction: Watford 1-2 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Best bet: Diogo Jota to score anytime at 11/4
Opta facts
- In the 19th different campaign in which they’ve met, Watford are looking to do the league double over Wolves for just the second time, also doing so in 2007-08.
- Wolves have won two of their last three away league games against Watford (L1), as many as they had in their previous 15 at Vicarage Road (W2 D5 L8).
- Watford have won both meetings with Wolves in all competitions this season, once in the league and in the FA Cup semi-final. They’ve never won three in a row against Wolves before.
- Watford have lost just one of their last 11 home Premier League games against promoted sides (W6 D4), winning the last three in a row.
- Wolves haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last 13 Premier League away games, the longest current run in the competition. They had kept two clean sheets in their first four league games on the road this season.
- Wolves are winless in their last five Premier League away games (D2 L3), having won three of their five on the road previously.
- Troy Deeney has scored in three of his five previous meetings with Wolves for Watford in all competitions, including finding the net in each of his last two against them.
- Raul Jimenez has been directly involved in 41% of Wolves’ 17 away Premier League goals this season (4 goals, 3 assists), netting three of their last five on the road.
- Gerard Deulofeu has been involved in 10 goals in his last 10 games in all competitions for Watford (8 goals, 2 assists). However, he’s not scored in any of his last eight at Vicarage Road, since netting against Cardiff in December.
- Andre Gray has scored four goals in his last six home games for Watford in all competitions, having netted just three in his first 23 appearances at Vicarage Road for the Hornets.
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Odds correct as of 1430 BST on 25/04/19