Premier League betting tips: Previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs
After profiting in his last two previews for the 3pm Premier League kick-offs, George Pitts looks to make it three in a row with his best bets, Super 6 predictions and top stats for each game.
Recommended bets
1pt Everton to be beating Cardiff at half-time at evens
2pts Fulham to beat Southampton and under 3.5 total goals at 5/2
1pt Highest scoring half - second in Man United v Palace at 21/20
1pt West Ham's Pablo Zabaleta to be carded v Man City at 5/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
3pm fixtures
- Brighton and Hove Albion v Leicester City
- Everton v Cardiff City
- Fulham v Southampton
- Manchester United v Crystal Palace
- Watford v Liverpool
- West Ham v Manchester City
Brighton v Leicester: Seagulls success
Two teams in mid-table after 12 games in the Premier League this season, but injuries could sway the clash in favour of the home side.
Brighton are hoping to bounce back from consecutive defeats before the international break and key man Pascal Gross could be fit to face the Foxes, who are set to be without the two Ms - James Maddison and Harry Maguire.
Maddison has been excellent since his summer arrival from Norwich with three goals, two assists and the averaging the most key passes per game in Claude Puel's side. With that missing creativity, they could be short in the final third with Jamie Vardy a little isolated and the temptation was to go with Brighton +1 on the corner handicap at a best price of evens, but the hosts to win and over 1.5 total goals at nearly 3/1 is more appealing.
The visitors are favourites, but Brighton's home form was key in their Premier League survival last season and it will again be vital this time around. Chris Hughton's Seagulls have improved on the road while losing just one of five so far at the Amex.
They have beaten Man United, West Ham and Wolves in front of their own fans so far this season and 13/4 to triumph with over 1.5 total goals is your best bet here.
Super 6 prediction: Brighton 2-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Brighton to win and over 1.5 total goals at 13/4
Opta match facts
- Brighton have lost just one of their last five home league games against Leicester (W3 D1), though it was in this exact fixture last season (0-2).
- Since losing against Leicester in March, Brighton have lost just one of their last eight home Premier League games (W4 D3), winning the last two in a row.
- Leicester have won three of their last five away league games (L2), more than they had in their previous 11 on the road (W2 D1 L8).
- Since the start of last season, Leicester have both scored and conceded in a league-high 32 different Premier League games.
- Leicester have conceded a league-high 25% of their Premier League goals this season in the opening 15 minutes of games (4/16), while they’re one of three teams yet to score in this time period so far (along with Crystal Palace and Southampton).
- Brighton’s Glenn Murray has faced Leicester more often without scoring than he has versus any other opponent in English league football (7 games).
- Brighton’s Glenn Murray has scored five goals in his five home Premier League games this season, with these goals being worth seven points to the Seagulls.
Everton v Cardiff: Bluebirds' woes on road
Everton may be sweating on the fitness of Gylfi Sigurdsson, but with or without him three points should be no issue here.
Cardiff may have won last time out, but securing successive victories is a tough ask in the Premier League, especially when you have scored just two goals away from home all season.
The Toffees have been strong at home under Marco Silva so far, collecting 13 points from a possible 18, and that is why they are well fancied by the bookies for this one.
A couple of prices catch the eye when favouring Everton - 13/10 to win to nil is worth a look considering the Bluebirds' record at either end, while the hosts to win both halves at 12/5 gives you slightly bigger odds.
A key stat for Cardiff is that they have trailed at the break six times this season, four of them coming away from home. Everton, meanwhile, are improving with every game and on a good run, having held unbeaten Chelsea to a draw at Stamford Bridge last time out, so backing the Toffees to be winning at half-time at evens is great value when you consider they are heavily odds-on for the full-time result.
Super 6 prediction: Everton 3-0 Cardiff (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Best bet: Everton to be winning at half-time at evens (General)
Opta match facts
- Everton are unbeaten in their last eight top-flight home games against Cardiff (W6 D2), winning the last three by an aggregate score of 15-5.
- Cardiff haven’t beaten Everton in a league game since December 1956, drawing four and losing three since.
- Everton have lost just one of their last nine Premier League home games (W5 D3), winning the last three in a row.
- Cardiff have scored fewer away goals than any other side in English league football this season (2).
- Cardiff have earned just five points from their last 51 available away from home in the Premier League (W1 D2 L14) – they’d won six points from their first 21 available in the competition (W1 D3 L3).
- After failing to score in his first six appearances in the competition, Cardiff’s Callum Paterson has scored in three of his last four Premier League games.
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Fulham v Southampton: Ranieri reign off to good start?
When Claudio Ranieri took his first Fulham training session over the international break he will have been under no illusions on where to start.
The Cottagers have conceded 31 goals in 12 games since returning to the top flight and owner Shahid Khan knew he had to act by axing Slavisa Jokanovic. The Londoners spent heavily in the summer and they undoubtedly have the talent going forward, so the Premier League-winning manager's first remit will be to tighten up at the back - and Italians usually know how to defend.
To face a Southampton side short in front of goal (see Opta facts, below), it points towards a home victory with few goals for the visitors. It may be too soon to actually back them for a clean sheet, but a fairly low-scoring victory for Fulham could be the way to go.
Southampton needed a break and Charlie Austin's disallowed goal, which cost them the win against Watford last time out, could prove to be the turning point they did not need. Fulham to win and under 2.5 total goals at 5/1 is tempting, but the hosts and under 3.5 gives you a safer margin at 5/2.
Super 6 prediction: Fulham 2-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Fulham to win and under 3.5 total goals at 5/2
Opta match facts
- Fulham have lost just one of their last 14 home league games against Southampton (W7 D6), though it was in their last such meeting in February 2014 (0-3).
- Southampton won their last away Premier League game in London vs Crystal Palace – they’ve not won consecutive league games in the capital since 2014-15 (vs Crystal Palace and QPR).
- Fulham have lost their last six Premier League games – they’ve not lost seven league games in a row since a run of 11 between December 1961 and February 1962.
- No side has failed to score in more Premier League games than Southampton this season (6), though Fulham are the only side yet to keep a clean sheet in the competition so far.
- Southampton have scored with just eight of their 173 shots in the Premier League this season, giving them the lowest conversion rate in the division (4.6%).
- In his first six Premier League appearances for Fulham, Aleksandar Mitrovic attempted 28 shots, with 12 on target and five goals. In his subsequent six games, he’s failed to score from 15 shots, with just two of these being on target.
Manchester United v Crystal Palace
It is fair to say Crystal Palace have had a bad start to 2018/19, collecting eight points from 36, although their fixture list has been fairly cruel.
Another tough match sees them travel to Manchester United, a team they have never beaten in the Premier League. Looking for value, United on the -1 handicap at around evens looks generous, but two further bets catch the eye for the visit of Roy Hodgson's struggling side, who should have Wilfried Zaha fit to face his old club.
With Luke Shaw suspended, Jose Mourinho will be forced to reshuffle and that could see Antonio Valencia return from injury at right-back, with Ashley Young moving across to the left. Red Devils captain Valencia, who has been travelling on international duty with Ecuador, could feel the effects of the air mileage and he is a little rash as it is with two bookings to his name already this term.
Against the likes of Andros Townsend, Zaha (who often switches sides) and Patrick van Aanholt, around 4/1 for Valencia to be carded is tempting.
But the favoured bet is for the most goals to be scored in the second half. This means there is no onus on the result - and with Mourinho's side you never know - and involves the league's worst second-half team in Palace. The Eagles have conceded 14 in the second period this term while United have scored 11 so a price of above evens for the highest scoring half is best recommended here.
Super 6 prediction: Man United 2-0 Palace (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Highest scoring half - second at 21/20
Opta match facts
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last 20 league games against Crystal Palace (W17 D3) since a 0-3 loss in May 1991.
- Manchester United have played 18 Premier League games against Crystal Palace without ever losing (W15 D3) – the highest amount of games one team has faced another in the competition without ever suffering defeat.
- Crystal Palace are winless in seven Premier League games (D2 L5), and have lost each of their last three away from home.
- Juan Mata has scored in two of his three Premier League home games against Crystal Palace for Man Utd. The Spaniard is currently on 49 goals and 49 assists in the Premier League.
- Romelu Lukaku has scored in six of his last eight Premier League appearances against Crystal Palace, including both for Manchester United last season.
- Anthony Martial has scored in his last five Premier League games for Man Utd, and could become just the fourth different player to score in six consecutive appearances for the Red Devils (after Eric Cantona, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Cristiano Ronaldo).
- Man Utd manager Jose Mourinho has only lost one of his 51 Premier League home games kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday (W41 D9), with that defeat coming against Crystal Palace when he was Chelsea manager in August 2015.
Watford v Liverpool
Liverpool may not be as good to watch as last season, but the noticeable difference in their slight change of style is that Jurgen Klopp has sacrificed heavy metal football in order to become Premier League champions.
The Reds are much more conservative, much more smarter, and are no longer guaranteed to be part of a high-scoring thriller.
Instead, they have improved their game management and can see out slim leads, something they may have to do against Watford on Saturday as they look to remain unbeaten. You will see them in lower scoring victories more often this season and it may well pay dividends.
With that in mind, with the Reds odds-on to win at Vicarage Road, an away win with under 3.5 total goals at 29/20 is a good option. They need a good performance to give them confidence going into an away match at PSG on Wednesday and, with the Premier League priority and Hertfordshire a tough stomping ground in the past, do not expect them to take their eye off the ball for this one.
Super 6 prediction: Watford 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Liverpool to win and under 3.5 total goals at 29/20
Opta match facts
- Since beating them 3-0 in December 2015, Watford are winless in their last five Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D1 L4), shipping 17 goals in that time.
- In all competitions, Liverpool have won nine of their last 11 meetings with Watford (D1 L1), keeping a clean sheet in seven of those victories.
- Since a 2-2 draw with West Brom in April, Liverpool haven’t conceded more than once in any of their last 15 Premier League games, shipping just six goals in that time.
- Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino has been directly involved in seven goals in his last five Premier League games against Watford (4 goals, 3 assists), scoring and assisting a goal in their 3-3 draw at Vicarage Road last season.
West Ham v Manchester City
City games can often be difficult to find value due to their tendency to score a shed load against bottom half opposition and it is best to look at the stats for value.
Their opponents West Ham have former Citizens in their ranks - manager Manuel Pellegrini comes up against them for the first time, as well as Pablo Zabaleta. The Argentinian defender should start the match and against City's rapid, inter-changing attack he faces a tough 90 minutes and 5/2 to be shown a card looks very generous.
The Hammers have the worst disciplinary record in the league so far, with 28 yellows and a red, so the likes of Diop and Noble in the Hammers' spine both at around 3/1 is also where you can get good value.
Pellegrini's side have shown improvement, scoring four in their victory over Burnley last time out at the London Stadium, but a City side - potentially without Bernardo Silva as well as Kevin De Bruyne - will need a real off day to come away without the points after starting the season convincingly and without complacency.
Manchester City should enjoy the majority of possession, so chances are expected and backing them on a -5 handicap for corners taken at 11/10 is worth considering. It could be a tough afternoon for Zabaleta though, which is why backing him to be carded is preferred here.
Super 6 prediction: West Ham 1-3 Man City (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Pablo Zabaleta to be carded at 5/2
Opta match facts
- West Ham have lost all three of their meetings with Man City at the London Stadium in all competitions, scoring just once and conceding 13.
- Man City have won all four of their Premier League meetings with West Ham under Pep Guardiola by an aggregate score of 13-3.
- Man City have scored four goals in their last two away Premier League games against West Ham – the last team to score 4+ in three consecutive away games against the same opponent were Chelsea against Bolton (October 2009, January 2011 and October 2011).
- Since their 3-4 defeat at Liverpool in January, Man City have conceded just five goals in their last 12 Premier League away games, and never more than once in a match.
- Man City’s David Silva has been directly involved in eight goals in his 11 Premier League games against West Ham (4 goals, 4 assists) – only against Newcastle has he been involved in more in the competition (9).
- The 88 Premier League games involving Man City boss Pep Guardiola have seen 3.33 goals per game (F222 A71), while the 126 games involving West Ham boss Manuel Pellegrini have seen 3.21 (F270 A134) – the highest two ratios in the competition (minimum 50 games).
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Odds correct at 1500 GMT on 22/11/18