Premier League tips: Predictions and best bets for Saturday's fixtures
Mark your card for Saturday's 3pm kick-offs in the Premier League with our best bets, Super 6 predictions and top stats for each game.
Recommended bets
2pts Pedro to score anytime for Chelsea v Cardiff at 7/5
2pts Arsenal to win and BTTS v Newcastle at 5/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
AFC Bournemouth v Leicester City (George Pitts)
Two sides who have enjoyed a good start to the season, both looking to bounce back after defeats to title-chasing teams last time out – Bournemouth at Chelsea, Leicester at home to Liverpool.
Eddie Howe’s men had positives to take from their performance at Stamford Bridge and we are backing them to put in another good display here.
Up until conceding in the 72nd minute, the Cherries showed grit and saw Callum Wilson and Nathan Ake miss glaring chances while new signings Jefferson Lerma and Diego Rico slotted in well.
Howe’s side have lost just two of their last 12 Premier League contests at the Vitality Stadium, winning six and drawing four and they are 6/4 favourites on Saturday.
Striker Wilson made a good start to the season by scoring in their opening two games and he will be keen to bag again after going close against Chelsea – he can be backed at 17/10 anytime, 11/2 to score first and 11/4 in a score-and-win double.
Leicester have so far looked good under Claude Puel, with fighting spirit that was clear even in the home defeat to Liverpool, while they will be buoyed by the return of Vardy.
With James Maddison starting well they pose multiple threats going forward, but Bournemouth’s enthusiasm and confidence on home turf should carry them through with the help of Wilson in the final third.
Super 6 prediction: AFC Bournemouth 2-1 Leicester City (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best Bet: Callum Wilson to score and Bournemouth to win at 11/4
Key Opta Stats
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in their six Premier League meetings with Leicester, though five of these have ended level (W1 D5 L0). They’ve not faced any other side more often without defeat in the competition than the Foxes (also six vs Swansea).
- There have been just seven goals scored in the six Premier League meetings between Bournemouth (4) and Leicester (3), with neither side managing to score more than once in a single match.
- Bournemouth have lost just two of their last 12 Premier League contests at the Vitality Stadium, winning six and drawing four.
- Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson has had a hand in four goals in his last five Premier League games (three goals, one assist), after failing to score or assist in any of his previous 12 in the competition.
- Since the start of last season, Leicester City midfielder Wilfred Ndidi has attempted more tackles than any other player in the Premier League (151).
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy, who returns from suspension for this match, has scored nine of the Foxes' last 17 away Premier League goals, including eight of 16 in 2018.
- If Bournemouth striker Jermain Defoe finds the net in this match, Leicester will be the 10th side that he’s scored against for three or more different teams, having previously netted against the Foxes with Sunderland and Spurs.
Chelsea v Cardiff City (George Pitts)
After a winless start to the season, the last thing Cardiff will have wanted to see is Chelsea, Man City and Tottenham in three of their next four fixtures.
They ended their wait for a Premier League goal last time out, scoring twice, only to be out-scored by Arsenal but there were positives to take for Neil Warnock's side.
Those positives should make little difference on Saturday though as they come up against Maurizio Sarri’s Chelsea, who have made a 100% start.
Despite leaving it until the latter stages to steal wins against Bournemouth, Newcastle and Arsenal, they are improving with every match and we do not expect them to slip up at home for this one.
Eden Hazard was slowly integrated into the team after his World Cup exploits with Belgium and his influence and importance to Sarri's Blues is clear.
He has scored in four successive games for club and country and is just under evens to find the back of the net anytime on Saturday.
If you want a spot more value from a goalscorer bet though, it is worth looking at Pedro. The Spanish winger has started brilliantly this term, scoring three goals in his last four appearances, and 7/5 for him anytime looks a great price on home turf.
Warnock’s comments this week suggest he will not turn up in west London and park the bus, with quotes carried by the BBC stating: "If you shut shop at Stamford Bridge you're going to get picked off and lose by two or three anyway. So you may as well have a go, you just have to hope you don't leave yourself wide open to a pasting."
While they certainly took the game to Arsenal, they conceded three goals in the process and, with this and Warnock’s comments in mind, this could well be a goal-fest.
Few bookies expect Cardiff to score, so you can get a nice price of 2s for Chelsea and both teams to register, while Chelsea and over 3.5 goals in the match can be backed at 8/5.
It's reasonable to suggest it could be Chelsea’s highest-scoring game of the campaign so far, so backing goals in their favour or Pedro/Hazard to find the back of the net should give you a good chance of profiting.
Super 6 prediction: Chelsea 4-1 Cardiff City (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Best Bet: Pedro to score anytime at 7/5
Key Opta Stats
- Chelsea have won 10 of their last 12 league meetings with Cardiff (D1 L1), including both previous Premier League meetings in the 2013-14 campaign.
- Chelsea have lost just one of their last 51 home Premier League games against newly promoted opposition (W42 D8 L1), with that defeat coming against Bournemouth in December 2015.
- Neil Warnock is without a win in 10 Premier League games (W0 D5 L5) – he has never gone 11 consecutive Premier League matches without victory.
- Maurizio Sarri could become the fourth manager in Premier League history to win his first five games in the competition after Carlo Ancelotti (6), Pep Guardiola (6) and Craig Shakespeare (5).
- Chelsea attacker Pedro, who could make his 100th Premier League appearance in this match, has scored three goals his last four league games, as many as in his previous 26 combined.
- Since the start of the 2016-17 season, Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso has been directly involved in more league goals than any other defender in Europe’s big five leages (14 goals, 7 assists).
Huddersfield Town v Crystal Palace (Paul Higham)
It's a regular theme but Palace's fortunes are linked with Wilfried Zaha's fitness as they sorely missed him again during their 2-0 defeat against Southampton last time out.
Palace haven't won a game without Zaha for two years so it's great news for them that he's is in line to make his return at Huddersfield - where he ran the Terriers ragged back in March in a vital 2-0 win for Roy Hodgson's side.
Just how fit Zaha is, however, will influence this result greatly as the one true quality player in the contest between these two teams who have one league win between them.
A draw at Everton was a good starting point for David Wagner's side after a difficult start, but if Zaha's on the field then a first win of the season looks just out of their grasp, although they are good enough to take a shar eof the spoils.
Super 6 prediction: Huddersfield Town 1-1 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Best Bet: Huddersfield draw with Palace at 21/10
Key Opta Stats
- Crystal Palace have won all three of their top-flight away matches against Huddersfield, keeping a clean sheet on each trip (5 goals scored). It is their best such 100% away record against a single team in the top tier of English football.
- Huddersfield have failed to win any of their last eight Premier League matches (D4 L4); they’ve never gone nine games without winning in the competition.
- David Wagner’s Huddersfield side haven’t scored in any of their last four league games at the John Smith’s Stadium – they last went five home league games without finding the net during a six-match streak ending in March 1972.
- After winning four consecutive Premier League games, Crystal Palace have since lost their last three matches, conceding exactly two goals in each loss.
- Crystal Palace have lost their last 12 Premier League matches in which Wilfried Zaha has been absent, since a 3-2 win against Sunderland in September 2016. The Eagles have failed to score in 10 of those 12 games, including last time out versus Southampton.
Manchester City v Fulham (George Pitts)
Manchester City returned to winning ways in the Premier League before the international break and they will be hoping to pick up where they left off after a battling win over Newcastle.
They have a great home record in recent years, losing just two of their last 40 Premier League games at the Etihad under Pep Guardiola (the defeats coming against Chelsea and Man United), so it is hard to see them slipping up on the visit of Premier League newcomers Fulham.
The Cottagers have been tested in a number of different ways since returning to the top flight, but this will be on another level as they look to stop Guardiola's Centurions - and seeing ways to contain them is one thing, stopping them is another.
City's star-studded squad could show effects of travelling around the world during the international break, but this should not be a problem as they look to stop Liverpool making ground.
Unless you are backing a defender, there is little value in the goalscoring market with the likes of Sergio Aguero, Gabriel Jesus and Raheem Sterling all odds on to find the back of the net.
In our betting preview for the last round of games, Benjamin Mendy to get an assist proved good value as he set up his fourth of the season and it is a market worth looking at again after the Frenchman's recent form.
The first goal time is most interesting here. Including the Community Shield win, City have opened the scoring inside 20 minutes in three of their five games (one of the other games was 25 minutes), and in their win over Newcastle last time out Sterling scored after just eight minutes.
You can back City to score in the first 10 minutes at 2/1, between 11 and 20 minutes at 11/4 and these provide value in a game where the hosts are considerable favourites.
Super 6 prediction: Manchester City 4-0 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best Bet: Time of first goal - 0-10 minutes at 2/1
Key Opta Stats
- Manchester City haven’t lost a Premier League home game against a newly promoted team since losing 0-2 versus Reading in February 2007. The Citizens have won 29 and drawn four since that defeat in 2007.
- The last newly promoted team to defeat a Pep Guardiola side in league competition were Real Sociedad in April 2011, while he was with Barcelona.
- Manchester City have lost just two of their 40 Premier League games at the Etihad under Pep Guardiola (W29 D9 L2), with both defeats coming against fellow ‘big six’ sides (Chelsea in 2016 & Man Utd in 2018).
- There have been 16 goals scored in the four Premier League matches involving Fulham this season (7 scored, 9 conceded) – the joint-highest total in the division alongside Arsenal.
- Since his Fulham debut in February, Aleksandar Mitrovic has scored more goals in England’s top two tiers than any other player (16).
- Manchester City forward Sergio Aguero has scored 27 goals in 34 Premier League appearances against newly promoted teams, including 12 goals in his last 11.
Newcastle United v Arsenal (George Pitts)
Newcastle's wait for a win in 2018/19 will go to a fifth game as they face Arsenal, who have won two on the bounce, at St James's Park.
The Magpies were 2-1 winners in this fixture last season and it really would not surprise you to see it happen this time around, but it feels like Arsenal have gathered some momentum after a difficult start and they can capitalise on the Magpies' woes.
Unai Emery's men are well fancied favourites, available at a best price of just under evens, as they look to secure a second successive away win after overcoming Cardiff before the international break. They could be boosted by the return of playmaker Mesut Ozil, but Alexandre Lacazette could be one look at in the goalscoring markets after scoring and assisting in the Welsh capital.
The Frenchman can be backed to find the back of the net anytime at a best price of 8/5, which is eye-catching considering he could be again paired with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang after impressing together last time out.
The Gunners have not kept a clean sheet so far this season, so backing them to win and both sides to score presents an excellent price (5/2).
Newcastle performed well at Man City before the international break, where so many expected them to fold and concede a handful, while they were unfortunate to lose to Chelsea despite their negative tactics on home turf. The wins should come for Rafa Benitez, but Arsenal should have the quality to pick them off.
Super 6 prediction: Newcastle United 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Best Bet: Arsenal to win and BTTS at 5/2
Key Opta Stats
- Newcastle’s 2-1 victory in this exact fixture last season ended a 10-match losing run against Arsenal in the Premier League. The Magpies last won consecutive league games against the Gunners back in January 1996 (4 wins).
- Only against Everton (32) and West Ham United (29) have Arsenal won more Premier League games than versus Newcastle United (26).
- Newcastle have lost all three of their Premier League matches against ‘big six’ opposition in 2018-19 by a 1-2 scoreline.
- Only Spurs (458.0 KM) have covered more distance in the first four Premier League games of this season than Arsenal (455.2 KM).
- Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette has been directly involved in seven goals in his last five Premier League starts (5 goals, 2 assists).
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Odds correct as of 2130 BST on 12/09/18