Premier League tips: Betting previews, Super 6 predictions & best bets for Saturday's action
Mark your card for Saturday's Premier League games, including Manchester City against Manchester United, with Tom Carnduff providing his best bets and score predictions for each clash.
Recommended bets
1pt Angelino to score anytime in Manchester City v Manchester United at 12/1
1pt Mason Mount to have 2+ shots on target in Everton v Chelsea at 5/2
1pt Georginio Wijnaldum to score anytime in Bournemouth v Liverpool at 13/2
1pt Crystal Palace (-1 handicap) to beat Watford at 7/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Manchester City v Manchester United
- 1730 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
We were treated to the Merseyside derby in midweek, and it's the turn of the two Manchester clubs in Saturday's late kick-off.
Pep Guardiola's men look far from convincing this season in comparison with last, a bizarre statement to make considering how remarkably good they have been under his guidance.
They still have a slight chance of regaining the Premier League title though and should continue their good record against Manchester United in recent years with victory again at the Etihad.
The general price of 1/3 on a City win shows how the balance of power (another cliche alert) has firmly shifted to the blue side of Manchester.
Combine that with the fact that the Asian Handicap currently sits at -1.5 for the home side and it highlights how the money is behind a comfortably victory for them.
A player who has featured in the City starting line-up in recent weeks is Angelino. The 22-year-old is currently Pep Guardiola's preferred choice at left-back and should start in that position again on Saturday.
He seems to fit the bill for what they want. A full-back with technical ability who can drive forward and create opportunities in attack, alongside posing a threat of his own with three shots in his last two games.
The heatmaps show the intent to drive forward. He was a real presence on the left side last time out with large patches in the opposition half.
The same can also be said for their recent trip to Liverpool. While that ended in defeat, he spent a significant period in the other half of the pitch looking to create in attack.
Given City's system and a reliance on strong full-back play, there will be a time where Angelino grabs a goal himself. If he's floating around the opposition box, opportunities will feature and he will take one.
The battle between him and Aaron Wan-Bissaka will be a fascinating one to watch with the latter likely to be pinned back in large spells due to the City man driving forward. It won't be a surprise to see Angelino get the better of him on multiple occasions.
A best price of 12/1 is available on the City full-back netting anytime here. Good odds for a game played in front of their own supporters.
Best bet: Angelino to score anytime at 12/1
Opta facts
- Only Chelsea (18) have won more Premier League games against Man Utd than Man City have (15), with 10 of those victories coming in the last eight years (67%).
- Man Utd have only lost one of their last four away league games against Man City (W2 D1), though it was in this exact fixture last season (1-3).
- Man City won 3-1 and 2-0 against Man Utd in the Premier League last season – the last team to beat the Red Devils by 2+ goals in three consecutive top-flight meetings was Liverpool, who did so in four in a row between 1978-1979.
- Manchester City have won 24 of their last 27 Premier League home games (D1 L2), with the Citizens netting 81 goals in that time, only failing to score on one occasion.
- Manchester United have won just one of their last 11 away league games (D4 L6), and are without a clean sheet in their last 12 on the road. They last conceded in more consecutive away league games in April 1986 (15 games).
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their last five Premier League games against ‘big six’ teams (W2 D3), including all four games in 2019-20 – they last went six consecutive such games without defeat back in March 2016 under Louis van Gaal.
- Manchester United have won seven away league games under Ole Gunnar Solskjær – however, the average starting league position of those seven clubs is 14th, with third placed Tottenham in January 2019 the only side they’ve beaten starting the day in the top half of the table.
- Pep Guardiola has won four of his six Premier League games against Man Utd (D1 L1) – in Man City’s top-flight history only Les McDowall (7/24) and Joe Mercer (5/10) have won more against the Red Devils in charge of the Citizens.
- Man City’s Gabriel Jesus hasn’t scored in any of his last 10 appearances at the Etihad in all competitions, since netting against Schalke in the Champions League in March. His last 11 goals for the club have all been scored away from Man City’s home.
- Marcus Rashford has been directly involved in 14 goals in his last 13 games in all competitions for Manchester United and England (12 goals, 2 assists).
Everton v Chelsea
- 1230 GMT kick-off on BT Sport
We get an early look at what Duncan Ferguson's Everton will look like on Saturday lunchtime - and it can't be any worse than what was being served up by Marco Silva's side in recent weeks.
Anyone who has only seen Everton in their defeat to Leicester last week may think that I'm being harsh. However, and apologies for dropping into cliche territory, it's a results-based game and the results just aren't there for the blue side of the city.
Chelsea's odds-against price provides appeal, but they've also experienced a slight dip in form in recent weeks with their midweek victory over Aston Villa ending that three-match winless run.
The Asian Handicap standing at -0.5 for Chelsea shows how they are fancied to make it two wins from two though and the money is behind them picking up another three points.
Instead, delving into the stats-based markets provides some interesting returns. A somewhat surprising figure is just how many shots on target Mason Mount has registered throughout the course of the current campaign.
His total of 16 puts him level with Manchester City's Gabriel Jesus and Burnley striker Chris Wood, while he's above the likes of Raheem Sterling, Danny Ings and Sebastien Haller.
We've seen how easily this Everton defence can be carved open. Liverpool's five goals left the backline completely helpless and Chelsea, with Mount likely to occupy his usual attacking midfield role, will see opportunities to strike.
Everton may opt to go for a similar 3-4-3 formation that limited Leicester's passing lanes and chances on goal last weekend - a system that was changed for the trip to Liverpool.
That didn't stop Leicester's efforts on goal though. The Foxes registered six in the win at the King Power Stadium and the 5/2 on Mount having two or more this weekend is value worth taking.
Best bet: Mason Mount to have 2+ shots on target at 5/2
Opta facts
- Everton won this exact fixture 2-0 back in March, and are looking to secure consecutive league wins against Chelsea for the first time since November 1994.
- Chelsea have failed to score in their last three Premier League games against Everton (D2 L1) – they’ve never gone four consecutive games without a goal against an opponent in the competition, last doing so in the top-flight against Bolton (1958-1960).
- Everton have won six of their last 10 home league games against Chelsea (D1 L3) – more than they had in their previous 24 against them at Goodison Park in the top-flight (W5 D10 L9).
- After a run of six consecutive clean sheets at Goodison Park in the Premier League, Everton have recorded just one shutout in their last six at home in the competition, conceding at least twice in four of those games.
- Everton will play a Premier League match in December starting the day in the relegation zone for the first time since December 2003, when they drew 0-0 with Manchester City.
- Chelsea have scored 19 goals in their seven away league games this season – they’ve never scored more after seven games on the road in a single league campaign (level with 1966-67 and 2008-09). The Blues are averaging 6.7 shots on target per away game this season, their highest in a Premier League campaign since at least 2003-04.
- Against no side has Everton’s Gylfi Sigurdsson scored more Premier League goals than he has against Chelsea (5).
- Chelsea’s Christian Pulisic has been directly involved in six goals in his last five Premier League away games, scoring four and assisting two.
- Everton have won just two of their last 32 Premier League matches against teams starting the day in the top four (W2 D9 L21), both home wins over Arsenal in December 2016 and April 2019.
- Chelsea striker Tammy Abraham has been involved in 14 goals in his 14 Premier League appearances this season (11 goals, 3 assists). Abraham has scored more goals in Saturday matches than any other player this season (9).
Bournemouth v Liverpool
Eddie Howe has been one named linked with a potential vacancy at Everton, but his focus remains firmly on a Bournemouth side who are looking to snap a four-game losing run.
The bad news for the Cherries is that Liverpool are the one team you don't want to face when aiming to bounce back. Jurgen Klopp's men beat their Merseyside rivals 5-2 in midweek and will be full of confidence heading into this one.
The power they possess in attack needs no further explanation. Even with the absence of Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino in their starting line-up on Wednesday, the Reds still demonstrated little issue in finding the net.
That's not to say that Bournemouth won't have opportunities of their own. Liverpool's defence isn't as assured this season, which isn't a problem considering they have no issue scoring at the other end, but they've failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last 13 games in all competitions.
It's why backing an away win with goals is a tempting route to go down but it's one with little value. Liverpool to win with over 2.5 goals in the match is available at a price of 5/6, while both teams scoring and three or more goals currently at 10/11.
Instead, the goalscorer market is the one to go to and the stand-out price here is the 13/2 available on Georginio Wijnaldum netting anytime at the Vitality Stadium.
The Reds midfielder has posted at least one shot in each of the last 13 Premier League games he has been involved in, with his shots on target ratio putting him among the likes of James Maddison, Jack Grealish and Dele Alli.
With Sadio Mane, Salah, Firmino and Divock Origi all floating around that even money mark, Wijnaldum provides a big-priced alternative with a good track record.
The stats show that he could probably consider himself unlucky not to have more than two league goals on his tally this season.
Against a Bournemouth side who have conceded eight goals in their last four games, the Liverpool midfielder can strike.
Best bet: Georginio Wijnaldum to score anytime at 13/2
Opta facts
- Bournemouth are winless in their last five Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D1 L4) since beating them 4-3 in December 2016. The Cherries have conceded at least twice in each of their last seven against the Reds.
- Liverpool have won their last four Premier League games against Bournemouth by an aggregate score of 14-0, including two 4-0 wins at the Vitality Stadium.
- Liverpool have won their last four Premier League games against Bournemouth, by a margin of 3+ goals each time. They’ve never won five consecutive top-flight games against an opponent by such a margin before.
- Bournemouth have lost each of their last four Premier League games, all of them by a 1-goal margin. They last lost five consecutive league games back in March 2013 as a League One side.
- Liverpool have won 27 Premier League matches during 2019, matching their tally from 2018. They last won more top-flight matches in a single calendar year in 1987 (28 wins).
- Liverpool have won 18 of their last 19 Premier League games at 3pm on a Saturday (D1), including each of their last 16 in a row. It’s the longest winning run on that day and kick-off slot in Premier League history.
- Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has scored in all four of his Premier League games against Bournemouth (six goals in total), the only side he’s got a 100% record against in the competition.
- After a run that saw him net five goals in four games, Bournemouth’s Callum Wilson is without a goal in his last eight Premier League appearances – his third longest run without a goal in the competition (10 between September 2015-August 2016 and 12 between February-May 2018).
- Bournemouth have lost all six of their previous Premier League matches against teams starting the day top of the league. The only team with a worse 100% losing record in games of this type are Watford (10 defeats in 10 games).
- Sadio Mané has been involved in more Premier League goals for Liverpool this season than any other Reds player (9 goals, 4 assists). Since scoring in a 4-3 defeat away at Bournemouth in December 2016, Mané has scored in 39 Premier League games and ended on the losing side in none (W35 D4).
Tottenham v Burnley
Jose Mourinho suffered his first defeat as Tottenham manager in their midweek trip to former club Manchester United - although his spell in charge of Spurs has been largely positive.
On top of that, we're starting to see a bit of the old Jose return following that time at United. He's back to showing the more friendly side, greeting his former team and staff warmly in front of the Amazon Prime cameras.
Playing a Burnley side at home will be viewed as a preferred fixture for a side looking to bounce back. The Clarets' 3-0 win over Watford was their first victory on the road this season, with defeats to Leicester and Arsenal in their two 'toughest' away fixtures so far.
Tottenham will back themselves to grab goals in this contest. Their three wins under Mourinho's guidance have all seen at least three goals scored, while Dele Alli finished a sublime effort in that defeat at Old Trafford.
There's little reason to argue against why they can't continue that goalscoring trend this weekend. Mourinho's preferred line-up is an attacking one, with their top attacking options, apart from Christian Eriksen, all starting.
That should be too much for this Burnley defence to keep out. Sean Dyche's men have conceded at least two goals in three of their last four away games; their only clean sheet coming against a very poor Watford side.
Now seems a good time to start adding those Spurs players in your Sky Sports Fantasy Football teams. You'd back the hosts to enjoy a positive month on the whole, with Brighton, Norwich and Southampton all to come before the new year.
Sky Bet's 11/8 on three or more goals for the hosts looks good value based on their recent track record, making it the best bet in this contest.
Best bet: Tottenham to score 3+ goals at 11/8
Opta facts
- Tottenham have won seven of their last eight home games against Burnley in all competitions (D1) since a 1-4 defeat in the League Cup in January 1983.
- Burnley won their last Premier League match against Spurs, 2-1 at Turf Moor in February. They last won consecutive top-flight games against them back in April 1975.
- Burnley have lost 21 of their 28 Premier League games in London (75%), winning three and drawing four. Since beating West Ham 3-0 in March 2018, the Clarets have lost seven of their eight such games (D1), conceding 23 goals in the process.
- Tottenham Hotspur have conceded twice in each of José Mourinho’s first four matches in charge in all competitions. They haven’t conceded two or more goals in five consecutive games since February 2004 under David Pleat.
- Burnley won their last away league game 3-0 against Watford – they’ve not won consecutive league games on the road since a run of three in April 2018.
- Burnley have completed just 38 sequences of 10 or more passes in open play this season – fewer than any other Premier League team and 150 fewer than Spurs have managed (188).
- Tottenham’s Son Heung-min has been directly involved in 13 goals in his 14 appearances at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in all competitions, more than any other player (8 goals, 5 assists). The Korean averages a goal involvement every 83 minutes at the ground, compared to one every 101 minutes at Wembley and one every 93 minutes at the old White Hart Lane.
- Tottenham boss José Mourinho has faced Burnley at home more often without winning than he has any other side in all competitions in his managerial career, though all three such games against them have ended level (1 with Chelsea, 2 with Man Utd).
- Burnley’s Robbie Brady is averaging a goal or assist every 68 minutes in the Premier League this season (1 goal, 2 assists in 203 minutes), with all three of his goal involvements coming against ‘big six’ teams (two assists v Chelsea, one goal v Man City).
- Tottenham’s Dele Alli is scoring a goal every 85 minutes under José Mourinho in all competitions this season, compared to one every 374 minutes under Mauricio Pochettino. Alli last scored in three consecutive Premier League games in March 2017.
Watford v Crystal Palace
Watford are in the unusual period of having a caretaker manager - with Hayden Mullins overseeing the team in their defeat to Leicester.
There was clearly a plan to counter attack with the emphasis on putting pressure on the Leicester backline with long balls forward when under pressure at the back themselves.
However, that didn't necessarily work out as intended. Missing the destined target made it seem like they were aimlessly lumping it forward, allowing the Foxes to mount another attack.
Palace's away form has been a positive. They sit sixth in the away standings with points picked up in four of their seven contests. Watford, on the other hand, have won just one league game all season.
They're already far behind in the battle for survival. Seven points now separates them with Southampton in 17th and that gap will only continue to grow as the trend of losing goes on.
That includes Saturday. The handicap markets favour the home side here, likely down to Palace's poor shot and xG data, but they did post good returns in this field in recent encounters against Liverpool and Arsenal.
The away defeat to Leicester saw Watford's xG stand at a woeful 0.22. Four chances were registered as goal-scoring opportunities for the Hornets, although all four had very low chances of success.
Even in their recent meeting with Southampton, another team struggling at the bottom end of the table, Watford saw the figure at 0.64 compared with the Saints' 1.79. The 3-0 home defeat to Burnley had the Clarets at 3.2.
Against a Palace side with a real threat in areas of their attack, Watford should suffer yet another defeat.
Best bet: Crystal Palace (-1 handicap) to beat Watford at 7/1
Opta facts
- Watford won all three of their meetings with Crystal Palace in all competitions last season, all by a 2-1 scoreline. The Hornets had only won two of their previous 16 against the Eagles (D4 L10).
- Crystal Palace have only lost one of their last eight away league games against Watford (W3 D4), though it was in this exact fixture last season. They’ve not lost back-to-back away league games against Watford since October 1961.
- Watford are looking to win four consecutive matches in all competitions against Crystal Palace for the first time.
- Watford are the only Premier League side still without a home win this season (P7 - D3 L4). Only once have the Hornets gone eight home games from the start of a league season without a win (9 in 1990-91 in the second tier).
- Watford are winless in their seven Premier League home games this season (D3 L4) – only eight sides have ever failed to win any of their opening eight in a season in the competition (most recently Aston Villa in 2015-16), with only one of those eight sides surviving relegation at the end of the campaign (Middlesbrough in 2000-01).
- Crystal Palace have won nine of their 16 away league games in 2019 (56%) – only in 2015 (61% - 11/18) have they ever had a higher win rate away from home in a calendar year in their league history.
- Crystal Palace have won their last two Premier League games without conceding – they last won three in a row in August 2018 (4), while they last won three in a row without conceding in March 2017.
- Watford are one of only two sides in the top four tiers of English league football yet to reach double figures for goals (nine) this season, along with League One’s Bolton Wanderers (also nine).
- Watford haven’t scored a home Premier League goal in open play since September against Arsenal – they've gone 397 minutes without a goal in open play since then, scoring two penalties in that time.
- Crystal Palace’s Jeffrey Schlupp has scored in consecutive Premier League games for the first time, with both these appearances coming as a substitute. His previous two goals for the club in the competition had come across a 27-game spell.
Odds correct at 1130 GMT (05/12/19)
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