Bundesliga: Weekend preview with best bets and odds for matches on Saturday June 13
The Bundesliga continues on Saturday and Tom Carnduff picks out three best bets at prices of 7/4, 29/10 and 9/2.
Recommended bets
1pt Union Berlin to beat Koln at 29/10
2pts Emre Can to have 1+ shots on target in Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Dortmund at 7/4
1pt Borussia Monchengladbach to have 14+ total shots v Bayern Munich at 9/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
FC Koln v Union Berlin
A battle between two of the current struggling sides in the Bundesliga as Koln and Union Berlin both desperately seek to snap their winless runs.
The hosts have failed to secure victory in any of their previous six league fixtures while the same can be said for Union's last eight. Both were also held to draws last weekend.
For Koln, they thought they had finally ended the wait when Anthony Modeste struck from the bench in the 85th minute away at Augsburg, only for Philipp Max to equalise three minutes later.
In truth, it was a game that Augsburg deserved to win as they were clearly the better side in the first-half. That opening 45 minutes saw a total of 15 attempts, four of which were on target, while they failed to capitalise from seven corners.
Crucially, Florian Niederlechner was denied from the penalty spot just before the half hour mark. If the forward has scored there, it really had the feel of a game that could have ended up in a convincing win for the home side.
Prior to that fixture, we saw Union Berlin being held to a 1-1 draw with Schalke. Robert Andrich gave them a first-half lead before Jonjoe Kenny's eye-catching strike from outside the area drew David Wagner's out of form men level.
Like Augsburg, Union should have wrapped the game up during a promising early spell. Yunus Malli, Florian Hubner and Anthony Ujah all had good opportunities to score inside the first 30 minutes.
That result, again like the one involving Koln, didn't accurately reflect the course of the game. Union's 2.40 xG was met by Schalke's 0.17; their inability to convert the chances ultimately costing them two valuable points.
For Koln, they posted a 0.79 xG to Augsburg's 2.20. Markus Gisdol's men have failed to inspire following the break despite their fine form under his leadership and that puts them in a difficult position against a Union side who looked lively in their last outing.
Despite Union's poor recent away results, there is still appeal in their near 3/1 price for victory here. Those two defeats on the road have come against a Hertha side in form and Monchengladbach, who are aiming for a top-four finish.
Union aren't quite safe from relegation yet and there is a lot more riding on this game for them than Koln. Given Dusseldorf's clash with Dortmund and Bremen's meeting with Paderborn, they know that this is an opportunity to move seven points clear with nine left to play for.
Last weekend suggested that Union are better equipped for this game than Koln and if they can sort their finishing out, they will hit the net a couple of times en route to victory.
Recent showings have failed to demonstrate that Koln justify their even money price; particularly against an opponent whose performances have picked up as time has progressed.
Three points will all-but-confirm Union's status as a Bundesliga team next season. The value is in siding with another away side on Saturday.
Score prediction: FC Koln 1-2 Union Berlin (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Union Berlin to win at 29/10
Fortuna Dusseldorf v Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund have responded well following their defeat to Bayern Munich; a result that ended their hopes of securing the Bundesliga title.
Since that narrow 1-0 defeat they've hammered struggling Paderborn 6-1 and beaten the in-form Hertha Berlin. This week takes them to Dusseldorf, who are looking to find a way out of the relegation places.
To their credit, Dusseldorf's results have been positive since the break. Apart from a 5-0 defeat to Bayern, which can always be viewed as a free hit, they've seen three draws and one win. It is worth highlighting how the fixture list has been somewhat kind to them up until this point.
Dortmund should continue their winning run against a team at the other end of the table. Victory could actually secure their top-four place if Monchengladbach or Leverkusen lose; although it should be said that Lucien Favre's men are expected to finish runners-up given the current four-point gap over Leipzig in third.
The Asian Handicap currently has the visitors at -1.5 and it's difficult to argue with that. The 81 goals scored by Dortmund more than demonstrate their attacking threat and Dusseldorf are likely to find that out first hand here.
The good news for Dortmund is that Mats Hummels returns to the line-up following his suspension. There were questions about how structured they would be at the back without his presence, but the clean sheet against Hertha demonstrates that they can cope in short spells.
Erling Haaland may not be risked and the forward trio of Julian Brandt, Jadon Sancho and Thorgan Hazard have provided the goals in his absence. We should see a similar forward line against Dusseldorf.
Sancho and Hazard each floating around the even money mark provides little appeal. Instead, it's worth looking at Emre Can in the stats market with a shot on target priced up at 7/4.
He scored the only goal in that victory over Hertha, playing in a centre-back role to replace Hummels, but this week he should return to central midfield alongside Axel Witsel.
Can has posted five shots across his last two games with one on target in each. In fact, the victory over Wolfsburg was the only one of his nine Bundesliga games as a Dortmund player where he failed to register a shot.
Against a Dusseldorf side who conceded 21 shots against Bayern, Dortmund should have opportunities to find the net and Can provides the best price to have an effort on target.
There's little appeal in taking Dortmund's outright price but they are certainly worth inclusion in any weekend accumulators. For an outright-based single bet in this contest, the -1 handicap in the away side's favour comes out at shades of odds-on.
But the stats market have provided good value in Dortmund matches since the break and that will hopefully continue on Saturday.
Dortmund should enjoy another victory here, and while the 9/2 best price on Can scoring anytime in this contest is intriguing, it's better to play it safer and back at least one shot on target.
Score prediction: Fortuna Dusseldorf 0-3 Borussia Dortmund (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Bayern Munich v Borussia Monchengladbach
Bayern remained in the hunt for the treble after they made the final of the DFB-Pokal with a 2-1 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt in midweek.
They could actually secure the title this weekend if Dortmund are beaten by Dusseldorf in the afternoon kick-offs and then they beat Monchengladbach here. It's unlikely, but one to consider if we see a surprise earlier on.
Bayern have been hit with some suspension trouble though and that could give Monchengladbach hope. Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller are both out after picking up yellow cards in last weekend's victory over Bayer Leverkusen.
There is still quality throughout though and they have a number of options available to them for a short-term fix. Serge Gnabry can always play up front while Leon Goretzka could push forward into attacking midfield, allowing Thiago to pair up with Joshua Kimmich in the middle.
That highlights the strength of this Bayern team and how they could become the next great side from Bavaria. Based on what we've seen under Hansi Flick's leadership, they could also go on and win the Champions League.
The removal of Lewandowski and Muller have shortened the odds on everyone else grabbing a goal for Bayern this weekend. Goretzka is now floating around the 2/1 mark while Gnabry is odds-on in the majority of places.
Monchengladbach have suspension problems of their own with Alassane Plea out following his red card last weekend. The good news for them is that Breel Embolo is back in training and available for the trip to the Allianz Arena.
Simply sitting back and trying to keep Bayern out won't work; quality in every position makes that difficult. If Monchengladbach are to get something, they will have to look to take the game to Flick's side as Frankfurt did in the second-half of their cup meeting on Wednesday night.
They actually outshot Bayern 7-5 in the second-half there, while Leverkusen, Dortmund and Frankfurt (in their league meeting) all hit double figures in the shots statistic. Even Union Berlin, who offered virtually nothing going forward in their meeting with the champions, finished that game with nine total shots.
That will give Monchengladbach hope given that their shot average has increased since the break. Marco Rose's side sit on 14.8 shots per game over their last five games.
Granted that those games weren't against teams of Bayern's calibre but, knowing that victory is important given Leverkusen's meeting with Schalke on Sunday, we should expect to see Monchengladbach aim to hit that same margin with points needed.
Sky Bet have a big price of 9/2 on Monchengladbach having 14 or more shots in this game and I'm willing to back the visitors to hit that target. It's a bet that depends on the flow of the game but the value is too appealing.
Ultimately, even without the influential Lewandowski and Muller, Bayern should have enough to secure yet another victory as they continue their match to the title.
But it's a game where Monchengladbach can look towards a solid attack of their own. Games away at Bayern should always be viewed as a free hit; that may well play into the hands of the visitors when they push forward.
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 3-1 Borussia Monchengladbach (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Best bet: Borussia Monchengladbach to have 14+ total shots at 9/2
Odds correct at 1255 BST (11/06/20)
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