Bundesliga: Weekend preview with best bets and odds for matches on Saturday May 23
Tom Carnduff ensured the Bundesliga's return was a profitable one for Sporting Life readers - he has an 11/1 selection on Saturday.
Recommended bets
1pt Robin Koch to score anytime in Freiburg v Werder Bremen at 11/1
2pts Achraf Hakimi to have 1+ shots on target in Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund at 15/8
1pt Over 12.5 corners in Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt at 2/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Bayern Munich v Eintracht Frankfurt (17:30 BST)
Borussia Dortmund once again have the advantage of applying the pressure to Bayern Munich as the current champions occupy the late kick-off slot on Saturday.
Eintracht Frankfurt are the visitors in what should be another routine victory for the Bavarian giants. They're currently enjoying a seven-game winning run across all competitions and the unbeaten run stands at 16 games since they were defeated by Borussia Monchengladbach in December.
There's no surprise in the 1/6 price that Bayern are for victory here. The Asian Handicap currently having them at a huge -2.25 not only shows how they are fancied to win, but to do so with a comfortable margin over their opponents.
You have to go up to Bayern scoring four goals to get an odds-against price across the board and, while it is a possibility, it feels like there is too much risk attached to it if there is still some post-break lag present among both teams.
We're following the money in saying that it should be a comfortable afternoon and having watched Bayern's routine win over Union Berlin on Sunday, there's no interest whatsoever in a play on Frankfurt's 16/1 price for a shock win.
As ever with games involving Bayern, and especially when they are the home side, we have to really explore the markets to find value.
The one area I've generally stuck with when it comes to Allianz Arena fixtures is corners and, given the opposition, I'm more than happy to continue with it here.
Backing a high corner tally has paid out in the majority of Bayern's home fixtures this season. Their average total stands at 12.6 for games in 2020.
In fact, you have to go back to their 4-0 hammering of Borussia Dortmund in early November to find the last competitive home fixture where the corner tally failed to hit double figures. In the nine games since then, the average has stood at 12.3.
The good news is that the enforced break didn't halt the trend of a high corner count either. The 2-0 away victory at Union Berlin had a total of 13, nine of which were in Bayern's favour.
There's a 2/1 price across the board on this game seeing over 12.5 corners and, playing to those averages, it looks good value.
It's a contest that will see Bayern on the front foot throughout and the opposite of the 5-1 hammering inflicted by Frankfurt when these two sides met in November. That brought an end to Niko Kovac's reign as Bayern boss.
There's little appeal in the outright markets, but if it came to adding a result to the Saturday accumulator, I'd have little hesitation in taking Bayern's -2 handicap price of 11/10.
But the best bet can be found in the corners market and backing Bayern's current trend to continue.
Score prediction: Bayern Munich 3-0 Eintracht Frankfurt (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bet: Over 12.5 corners at 2/1
Freiburg v Werder Bremen
Granted that this game will likely be relegated to my phone screen as I aim to watch as many games as possible but it does provide the most intriguing bet of the weekend.
Freiburg come into the contest on the back of a 1-1 draw away at RB Leipzig and, if it wasn't for the harsh nature of VAR, they would have snatched all three points with a late winner.
For Werder, things continue to go from bad to worse. Their long stay in the Bundesliga is hurtling towards an end and the defeat to Bayer Leverkusen on Monday gave little hope that they are doing anything to try and prevent it.
There's little positive to say on Bremen. A disorganised side who have no clear direction has contributed to their current downfall and away at European hopefuls Freiburg, their misery should continue.
Freiburg's 23/20 price for victory makes them the most appealing outright option of the weekend and the -1 handicap having the hosts at 16/5 may also be worth consideration to boost the odds of the Saturday accumulators.
While that 16/5 price would have been the best bet in this game, the true value comes in the goalscorer market and taking the huge 11/1 available on Robin Koch to get onto the scoresheet.
That late winner that was ruled out in Leipzig was scored by the 23-year-old. The barest of margins denying him only his second goal of the campaign.
The fact that he only has one this season shouldn't put us off backing him to grab another on Saturday. His average of one shot per game in the Bundesliga proves that he does regularly get chances.
But delving into his stats show where the majority of the chances are coming from. The stand-out attributes to his game are his ability on the ball and his presence in the air, and the latter will be crucial in this contest.
For those who watched Bremen in their defeat to Leverkusen, there will be no surprise to learn that they have conceded the most goals from set-pieces in the Bundesliga this season. Their lack of organisation was evident as Kai Havertz ran in unmarked to connect with a free-kick on Monday.
This is where Koch can shine. The average does stand at a shot a game but we have regularly seen multi-shot games against those teams who can't defend set-pieces.
Mainz and Paderborn are the two sides below Bremen in this chart having conceded 13 each from set-piece situations. In Freiburg's home meeting with Mainz, Koch had two shots while he managed three in their clash with Paderborn in January.
In the home game against Dusseldorf, with their ten goals conceded from set-pieces, Koch tallied two shots. Their last home outing against Union Berlin, with Koch in the midfield role he will likely line-up in on Saturday, he got onto the scoresheet.
In fact, across his last four games, the Freiburg man has had a total of eight shots. The attacking intent is present and that threat will be made even greater against a side with defensive woes in situations that play to Koch's strengths.
It should be an afternoon where Freiburg continue to push for a spot in Europe next season - in a contest that increases the possibility of Koch grabbing a goal.
Score prediction: Freiburg 2-0 Werder Bremen (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Robin Koch to score anytime at 11/1
Wolfsburg v Borussia Dortmund
This is the fixture that will most likely have the majority of my attention on Saturday. The focus will be on if Dortmund can replicate their great performance against Schalke last time out.
After a shaky opening ten minutes, where the defence were trying to find their feet once again, Lucien Favre's side began to work through the gears and, aided by some poor goalkeeping, netted four unanswered goals.
To pin it all on poor goalkeeping does disservice to the wonderful link-up play and finish of the first, plus Erling Haaland and Raphael Guerreiro's connection for their fourth. Dortmund were more than deserved winners on the day.
This week takes them to a side with European aspirations in Wolfsburg. An expected victory over Augsburg means that they kept pace with the others in the chasing pack who overtook Schalke in the standings.
It was pretty much a case of picking up where they left off as they extended their unbeaten run to seven games. With Dortmund in town, that should now come to an end.
The 8/11 on an away victory here shows that Dortmund are fancied to keep up the fine winning run of their own. The Asian Handicap standing at -0.75 in the visitors' favour highlights where the money is going.
Favre's men look a decent price to boost the Saturday accumulators and should definitely be considered in the win market. Backing them on the -1 handicap, which landed a winning tip for us last weekend, does give a price of 15/8 which is the better avenue to go down in regards to the outright result.
Instead, another bet at a price of 15/8 stands out in the stats market. So much was rightly made of Dortmund's left-back Guerreiro netting a brace in the win last week, but this game is for focusing on the opposite flank and backing Achraf Hakimi to have his opportunity to get onto the scoresheet.
The 21-year-old has enjoyed a wonderful season on-loan from Real Madrid and has quickly established himself as one of the stars of the Bundesliga campaign. With Haaland, Jadon Sancho and Julien Brandt often capturing the headlines, Hakimi's performances haven't perhaps brought the wider praise they deserve.
The term 'flying full-back' was designed for a player like Hakimi. His season heatmap shows a dark red colour across the entire right side of the pitch. His contribution in attack is just as important as his defensive work and the 21-year-old is there to provide goals of which he has; the season tally stands at seven goals and ten assists.
The 15/8 best price on Hakimi having at least one shot on target really caught my eye. The other Dortmund stars mentioned above are floating around at various odds-on prices, including Guerreiro, but Hakimi has been left at much better value.
Particularly when a delve into the season statistics truly back up what we have been seeing on the pitch. In 38 appearances across all competitions, Hakimi's average shots on target per game figure stands at 0.6. For Guerreiro, and the 5/6 price that he brings in this market, his average is 0.5 across 37 games.
These numbers aren't drastically lower than the rest of the Dortmund squad either; Thorgan Hazard's season average is 0.7 while Brandt also finds himself on 0.7. Again, the best price you'll find on either of those to hit one on target is 5/6.
Hakimi has combined for a total of ten shots across his last five Bundesliga games and you'd back him to continue that run on current form, especially against a Wolfsburg side who have seen the highest percentage of shots against from their left side in the entire Bundesliga.
There's a best price of 11/2 on Hakimi to score here but the 15/8 'safety net' of a shot on target is appealing enough. This should be another fixture where Dortmund secure victory with a margin.
Score prediction: Wolfsburg 1-3 Borussia Dortmund (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1230 BST (21/05/20)
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