Free football tips: Preview of Saturday's Premier League games inc Newcastle v Manchester City
Matt Brocklebank’s best bets for Saturday's Premier League games, including Leroy Sane to star for Manchester City.
Saturday's best bets
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Brighton v Chelsea (1230)
"It may be more difficult to keep winning with Juventus."
That was Antonio Conte's stark assessment as he walked away from the Italian giants in the summer of 2014 after landing a third straight Scudetto. And there has been more than the odd outward sign that the current Premier League title-holder is starting to think along similar lines as his club falls short of the standards set on the way to a comfortable Premier League success last term.
It would be painfully trivial to refer to the laboured Wednesday night FA Cup replay with Norwich as a defining mark of how far off their best Chelsea are right now, but when the big guns are misfiring then it's asking a lot for the second string to step in and raise the bar. So an ugly win after penalties against the mid-table Sky Bet Championship club shouldn't have come as too much of a surprise.
Stopping the rot – okay, they've not lost since December 9 – in a lunchtime kick-off against a side they're widely expected to beat (4/6 at best), may not be particularly straightforward though I'd still expect the away side to grind out a victory at the Amex.
Alvaro Morata didn't have a shot on goal against Leicester last weekend and misses out here having been stupidly sent off in midweek but at least stand-in Michy Batshuayi had a decent run-out and got on the scoresheet against the Canaries. He's around 11/8 to score in consecutive first team matches for the first time since September.
That can be resisted but Chelsea's touch of class in the final third should be enough to unlock a well-organised Brighton side that has only conceded one goal more than Arsenal in the top flight this season. The hosts clearly aren't the most prolific, though, scoring just once in games against the top four so far, and even that solitary strike came in a 5-1 home defeat to Liverpool.
It's not going to be pretty viewing and Chelsea fans may have to sit and suffer but that makes the odds-against for the second half to contain most goals a decent option at a fraction of odds-against.
They've not struck a first-half goal in their last five in all competitions and with Brighton set to sit deep in order to protect what they've got from the outset, all the real action may be squashed into the second period.
Prediction: Brighton 0-2 Chelsea
Best bet: Second half to be highest scoring at 6/5
Alternative: Chelsea to win to nil at 13/10
Arsenal v Crystal Palace (1500)
It almost goes without saying that Arsene Wenger’s Arsenal aren’t enjoying January, but it’s perfectly clear they are simply unable to fire on all cylinders when those cylinders are out injured and/or seeking to find a new club.
Alexis Sanchez won’t play for Arsenal again and consequently the short-term future doesn’t look too bright with Mesut Ozil’s contract talks dragging on again amid slightly suspect injury talk. He’s a doubt again here having not featured at all since the frantic 2-2 draw with Chelsea on January 3, since when they’ve been dumped out of the FA Cup, drawn with Chelsea again in the Carabao Cup and been beaten by Bournemouth last weekend.
Despite all of this, we’re still looking at well-backed 1/2 favourites to pick up all three points which, in spite of a potential ‘dead cat bounce’ on the back of their star man’s exit, strikes me as rather odd given Palace have been on a steady upward curve since Roy Hodgson took the reins.
Arsenal’s defence, shorn of the stabilising Laurent Koscielny through injury since the turn of the year, looks there to be got at and we could even see a scenario in which recent 20-year-old signing Konstantinos Mavropanos is thrust straight into the spotlight.
Hopefully, that can be avoided but one bright note for the Gunners of late has been the emergence of Ainsley Maitland-Niles and he, together with fellow wing-back Hector Bellerin, appeals as an alternative option in the goalscorer markets. They are 9/1 and 11/1 respectively and the latter has produced consecutive goals in the league.
Jack Wilshere didn’t really enjoy his return to the Vitality Stadium but did score in the aforementioned Chelsea match and has generally been in sparkling form, which makes him the best bet to find the target at a standout 7/2. If the Gunners are to get back on track then he looks like being at the heart of things given his run of form and ambition to get back into the forefront of Gareth Southgate’s thinking ahead of the summer.
Both teams to score (8/11) is another bet that stands out for those happy with an odds-on quote. The goals flowed in a 3-2 Arsenal win in the reverse fixture just after Christmas and the Eagles have actually scored in all bar one (0-0 with Man City) of their last nine in all competitions. Bakary Sako leads the charts for Palace and got the winner in last Saturday’s 1-0 win over Burnley. He and Christian Benteke seem likely to be gifted enough space to carve out a few chances and if Wilfried Zaha is on a going day, which can’t always be said, then another entertaining afternoon at the Emirates lies in store.
Super 6 prediction: Arsenal 2-2 Crystal Palace
Best bet: Jack Wilshere to score any time at 7/2
Alternative: Both teams to score at 8/11
Burnley v Manchester United (1500)
Hindsight is a magnificent thing and looking back over the evidence of Manchester United’s 2017/18 season so far throws up several key trigger points. One of the most significant would appear to be a run of three games in December in which Jose Mourinho’s side conceded twice on each occasion.
The third leg of that troubling trio saw Burnley race into a 2-0 lead at Old Trafford on Boxing Day before United fought back to draw, and now the pair meet again with the Red Devils having kept four subsequent clean sheets (including the FA Cup).
Burnley have registered just a single point from their three Premier League games since, scoring once, and now Sean Dyche needs to hit the reset button once again and get his side back to doing the basics well.
Thankfully for the Clarets, that’s something at which he absolutely excels and they should not be underestimated here, which does appear to be the case slightly with the odd 13/2 quote in evidence against the home win, and 8/5 for them not to lose.
United are playing with cohesion and quality, surely the product of a more settled starting line-up, and for all that a bit more glitz will be needed to take this side to another level next season, Antonio Valencia and Ashley Young in the full-back positions provides a really experienced grounding from which the likes of Paul Pogba can flourish.
He was operating on another plane entirely in the 3-0 win over Stoke on Monday night and can’t be allowed to do as he pleases here, but it’s not too hard to see Burnley doing what they do best by nullifying him and Juan Mata in midfield, before nicking something for themselves as the game develops.
I suspect United need to hit their stride early to sap the hope from Turf Moor but if that doesn’t quite happen then don’t expect the odds-on favourites to coast home.
Three of the last five matches between these clubs have ended all square and that’s the way to play things once more at a reasonable-looking 3/1.
Super 6 prediction: Burnley 1-1 Manchester United
Best bet: Draw at 3/1
Alternative: Half-time score 0-0 at 7/4
Everton v West Brom (1500)
Not for the faint-hearted this one and presumably not particularly high on the provisional Match of the Day running order in light of the lifeless encounter they played out at the Hawthorns on Boxing Day.
Everton’s fortunes have dipped markedly since then and that’s primarily why I’ll be siding with the visitors around the 11/4 mark, rather than being guilty of getting too carried away with the Baggies’ first win in 21 against Brighton last weekend.
To be fair to Alan Pardew, who took over at the end of November, from the nine Premier League games he’s overseen so far they’ve lost four, only one of those coming by more than a single goal, and the recent victory was surely deserved following draws with Palace, Liverpool and Arsenal, on top of the aforementioned Christmas stalemate with the Toffees.
So now it’s a matter of building some momentum and there is just about enough there in this team, provided Johnny Evans can remain focused and doesn’t have his head turned, to take advantage of a wobbling Everton.
Theo Walcott is an interesting addition but this weekend there’s probably more pressure on lone striker Cenk Tosun to start delivering immediately on his home debut. There were flashes of positive play from the Turk at Wembley last Saturday when the team struggled massively against a superior Spurs, but it may take a while for him to get up to speed in order to supplement the obvious threat provided by Gylfi Sigurdsson and Wayne Rooney.
West Brom aren’t a one-man team but Evans is the talk of the town again with the transfer window gathering pace and he’s not the worst 18/1 chance to back up last weekend’s goal and claim his third of the season against a side still capable of leaving men unmarked at set-pieces, much to Sam Allardyce’s distress.
Super 6 prediction: Everton 0-1 West Brom
Best bet: West Brom to win by a single goal at 9/2
Alternative: Johnny Evans to score any time at 18/1
Leicester v Watford (1500)
Only Stoke have conceded more goals than Watford in the top flight and frankly it could be hard to keep count in this match with free-scoring Leicester if there’s an early breakthrough either way.
Andre Gray has found his form in front of goal for the Hornets and though that hasn’t really proved enough to provide them with much comfort in terms of a points return in the past month or so, he’ll provide enough of a threat to keep Leicester honest as they look to justify odds-on favouritism and get back to winning ways.
One win in six in the league probably doesn’t do Claude Puel’s men justice given they’ve drawn with Chelsea and Man United in that run and the point picked up at Stamford Bridge last weekend should give them confidence returning to the King Power to face a rival they’ll be keen to keep at arm’s length in the standings over the remainder of the campaign.
An odds-on quote looks fair for the hosts with Riyad Mahrez and Jamie Vardy both close to their best at present and Mark Albrighton’s heightened influence this term, but there’s a temptation to boost the bare bones of that price.
Of Leicester’s eight wins, half of them have seen the Foxes cover a -1 start and at odds in excess of 2/1 that doesn’t look such bad value here.
They lost 2-1 again at the Hawthorns last season before thrashing Watford 3-0 in the reverse and a similar scenario looks perfectly plausible.
A Leicester win and both teams to score must come into the reckoning too at 13/5 but the crux of the matter is that the side in eighth should see off the side in 10th with home advantage, and the handicap route is the recommended path to take to maximise the potential for a small payout.
Super 6 prediction: Leicester 3-1 Watford
Best bet: Leicester -1 to beat Watford at 12/5
Alternative: Leicester to win and both teams to score at 11/4
Stoke v Huddersfield (1500)
If Paul Lambert could've hand picked his first game in charge of Stoke, then Huddersfield at home would've been high on the shortlist.
That's not to disrespect the Terriers who made a very bright start to life in the Premier League. But there's no denying that their form has dipped, the demands of the competition in the deep midwinter taking its toll on one of the smaller squads.
Just look at their league results since the 1-1 draw with Stoke at the John Smith's Stadium in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day: 0-0 v Burnley, 0-3 v Leicester, 1-4 v West Ham. They're a vulnerable side at the moment and probable easy fodder for a team inspired by a new managerial appointment.
But will Lambert even have a honeymoon period? Will his presence have a galvanising effect? It's fair to say the appointment was met with a luke-warm reception, at best, by Stoke fans and here he takes charge of a squad devoid of confidence.
Since that 1-1 draw with Huddersfield on Boxing Day, Stoke have been woeful, losing four from four, not scoring once, conceding 10 times. Their defence has been a shambles in the league this season, conceding 50 already.
Perhaps that will be Lambert's immediate focus. Keeping things tight. It's a tough job, but home to Huddersfield offers an opportunity for the back four to fight for their positions.
Just over three weeks ago, there was very little between these teams. They shared the spoils in a 1-1 draw, both had strong penalty appeals turned down, both had chances to win the game. Stoke held on in the face of a bit of home pressure in the end, but 1-1 was probably a fair result.
And it's the stalemate that looks a likely outcome once again. Odds of around 12/5 seem fair. Prices as big as 8/1 about no goalscorer could have some mileage in them too, if you can envisage the worst defence in the league keeping it clean.
Super 6 prediction: Stoke 0-0 Huddersfield
Best bet: Under 2.5 goals at 8/13
Alternative: No goalscorer at 8/1
West Ham v Bournemouth (1500)
The Manuel Lanzini and Marko Arnautovic double act looks set to be reunited on Saturday and that might spell trouble for Bournemouth on their trip to the capital.
David Moyes has really brought the best out of the pair since his appointment in early November, particularly Arnautivoc who has scored six times since his new manager's arrival.
Rested against Shrewsbury in their FA Cup third round replay on Tuesday night, Arnautivoc will likely return to the starting line-up on Saturday and renew his partnership with Lanzini which caught fire in the 4-1 win at Huddersfield last weekend.
The pair were sensational in the second half in West Yorkshire, tearing apart a shell shocked Huddersfield team from the second the whistle was blown to signify the start of the second half.
1-1 quickly became 4-1 in the space of a 15-minute period where Arnautivoc and Lanzini were unplayable, for Huddersfield's defenders at least. Bournemouth are better equipped to deal with the pair, but their form could be the deciding factor in this.
Arnautovic scored twice in the reverse fixture on Boxing Day and, given his current vein of form, 6/4 that he finds the net in this match is a fair price. Lanzini at 21/10, a smidgen over the 2/1 mark, is not to be sniffed at either.
In that Boxing Day match West Ham were seconds away from winning all three points until a controversial 93rd-minute leveller, so gaining retribution should be at the forefront of their minds here.
Confidence is high after a good run of form. The Hammers have beaten West Brom, Huddersfield and Shrewsbury in recent weeks, while a Wembley draw with Tottenham on January 4 was the best result of the lot.
Bournemouth won't be too bothered by their Wednesday night defeat at Wigan in their FA Cup third round replay, more buoyed, still, by their 3-1 win over Arsenal last weekend.
But the Cherries have a tough task on their hands on Saturday. Having won just twice on the road from 11 goes in the league this season, I can't see them adding to that tally against an in-form West Ham.
Super 6 prediction: West Ham 3-1 Bournemouth
Best bet: Arnautovic to score anytime at 6/4
Alternative: Lanzini to score anytime at 21/10
Manchester City v Newcastle (1730)
A fascinating clash rounds off the day’s play in the Premier League as clear leaders Man City look to restore some normality after seemingly being blown away by a combination of Liverpool’s high-pressing intensity and – understandably – their own fatigue.
If there was indeed a touch of tiredness at work at Anfield then it was pretty remarkable how they finished with such a flourish, to leave Jurgen Klopp and the Kop collectively holding their breath at the prospect of throwing away a 4-1 lead.
It wasn’t to be for City, whose unbeaten run is broken but whose dream of a cabinet bulging with trophies come the end of the season remains very much intact.
The tactical approach used by Rafa Benitez and Newcastle in the fixture at St James’s Park a little under a month ago obviously got people hot under the collar, but while Bristol City’s far more adventurous counter at the Etihad in the first leg of their Carabao Cup clash ruthlessly exposed quite how negative Newcastle had been, it doesn’t take away from the fact that the Magpies only lost 1-0.
They were actually in the ascendancy for the majority of the last 15 minutes and could have nicked it. But they didn’t, and it’s stating the obvious now to suggest that that was their big chance of taking a point off the champions-elect this year.
City are unbeaten in 20 Premier League matches against Newcastle so could hardly have cherry-picked a more suitable side to provide a welcome pick-me-up.
Benitez is as well-equipped as any manager to try and cut down their clear chances and no doubt he’ll attempt another heroic defensive masterclass – which makes over 3.5 total goals around 8/11 a pretty scandalous offering from the layers.
A home win to nil is considerably more appealing at even money, but for a bet it could be worth delving into the scorer markets.
With Sergio Aguero and Raheem Sterling now both odds-on any time, the eye is drawn to Leroy Sane, who still has the potential to become a world-class superstar by the end of this World Cup year.
After five straight starts in all competitions for City, he’s looked right back to the sharpest performances he was showcasing towards the start of the season and I’m taking a pot-shot on him scoring two or more.
It’s something he achieved twice back in September and while one of those doubles came in the Carabao Cup, it was against Premier League opposition in West Brom.
The other brace was in the 5-0 win over Liverpool and after getting back on the scoresheet at Anfield on Sunday, he’s obviously in the right frame of mind to kick on. 17/2 is a big enough price to lure me in.
Prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Newcastle
Best bet: Leroy Sane to score two or more at 17/2
Alternative: Manchester City to win to nil at evens
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Posted at 2025 GMT on 18/01/18