Sack race odds: David Moyes and Brendan Rodgers' tenures reaching natural conclusion?

There are only eight in the top flight at the moment, which is close to a record low, and three of them occupy places in the bottom four. David Moyes, Brendan Rodgers, and Frank Lampard have won just one point between them from the first three rounds of matches and things aren’t looking much better for Steven Gerrard.

That is only half the story, of course. Graham Potter and Eddie Howe are flying high at the other end of the Premier League table while promising beginnings for Scott Parker and Steve Cooper suggest we are not quite in a cultural crisis for the British contingent.

These four don’t necessarily have a lot in common stylistically but all are coaches first and foremost; smart thinkers whose principles align with a division now at the tactical cutting edge.

Turning our attention to the four in trouble, the same perhaps cannot be said for Lampard or Gerrard, based on their respective difficulties imparting a true identity onto their teams. Meanwhile Moyes and Rodgers look as though their tenures are reaching a natural conclusion; the inevitable end of a successful cycle when ideas go stale and players begin to switch off.

Next Premier League Manager to Leave (via Sky Bet)

• Brendan Rodgers - 8/13
• Frank Lampard - 5/1
• Steven Gerrard - 5/1
• Ralph Hasenhüttl - 13/2
• Erik ten Hag - 10/1
• Bruno Lage - 14/1
• Scott Parker - 14/1
• David Moyes - 16/1

Odds correct at 1215 BST (25/08/22)

Moyes’ football becoming too passive

Goalless and pointless after three games, West Ham United are looking like a team sapped of their energy.

It’s as if the players are tired of Moyes’s reliance on a deep defensive block, minimal pressing, and direct counter-attacking football, a style that is traditionally associated with British managers but has gone out of fashion recently.

Perhaps the players are struggling to motivate themselves, or to keep making the same few moves in succession (into the channels for Michail Antonio; dribbling through the middle with Declan Rice) and would rather be doing something a bit more fun.

That is the inherent risk of a system as pragmatic as Moyes’s, especially after three years in the job and with West Ham having hit a ceiling with last year’s Europa League run.

Whatever the reason, the stats show West Ham are still deploying the same system but with less energy or bite.

Comparing this season to last, their progressive passes (29.6 to 24.3 per 90), recoveries (83.8 to 73.7 per 90), pressures applied (129.4 to 119.7 per 90), and tackles attempted (14.7 to 10.3 per 90) have all dropped. That is a serious problem, because without defensive assertiveness or counter-attacking speed a team with Moyes’ tactics simply becomes a shell: passively shuffling from side to side.

However, it is possible that things will improve once Moyes begins to integrate his £125m worth of new signings.

Gianluca Scamacca and Maxwell Cornet in particular should provide a lift, and possibly even the opportunity to push the defensive line a bit higher, although ultimately a failure to invest in new central midfielders is likely to prevent a major tactical change. Only one has signed, Swansea’s Flynn Downes, and Moyes has already publicly stated the 23-year-old “needs to do better”.

Tomas Soucek’s form has been poor for a long time, and without more agile and technically-gifted players in the middle of the park West Ham are destined for workmanlike performances – and a gradual decline.

Leicester’s comedown compounded by a back three

If West Ham’s players are tired of the style of football, Leicester’s are more likely to be jaded by the sense that there is nothing left to achieve.

Two consecutive seasons missing out on a Champions League place on the final day is bound to take its toll psychologically, and finding the motivation to go again under Rodgers has been tough – especially having endured such a dreadful summer transfer window.

No new signings is bad enough, given the downturn in energy levels over the last year (as the above graph indicates), but worse than that many of their key players’ heads have been turned.

Arsenal have been looking at Youri Tielemans for a long time, James Maddison is seemingly wanted by several clubs and Wesley Fofana has been training with the under-23s as he tries to force through a move to Chelsea.

Tactically, their main issue is Rodgers’ desire to play an unusual 3-4-1-1 formation despite its obvious flaws. They are now a player short in attack, preventing the sharp verticality that had defined Leicester at their best - and becoming a more prosaic team as a result.

Most of their underlying numbers are the same this year as last, except they are attempting considerably more short passes (242.0 per game, up from 193.8) and without as much opposition pressure applied to the ball (their passes made under pressure have dropped from 81.0 to 54.3 per game).

This tells the story of a side no longer bubbling with energy and no longer searching for piercing forward passes into congested areas, instead hesitating with sideways possession.

Switching back to a 4-1-4-1 would help significantly. Indeed, Leicester were 1-0 up against Southampton using this formation before a double substitution, and change to a 4-2-3-1, allowed Saints back into the game. Bizarrely, the 4-1-4-1 has not been used again, repeating the frustrating situation that developed last season.

Over the course of 2021/22 they won seven points from eight games in which they deployed a back three/five. As if that pattern wasn’t clear enough, at the end of last season Leicester overcame a difficult run by winning three of their final four – and scoring 13 goals – directly after moving back from 3-5-2 to 4-1-4-1. Yet the back three persists and the slide continues.

Moyes better placed to recover

For West Ham, the downturn could be a short trend. After all, Aston Villa are likely to be accommodating opponents on Saturday given Gerrard’s continued use of an ill-fitting and ultra-narrow formation this season.

Whether in a 4-3-2-1 or diamond 4-4-2, Villa are repeatedly stunted by any opponent who sits off a little, as Crystal Palace did last weekend. Rice and Soucek should provide the foundation for an important win.

But things look a lot worse for Rodgers, who faces a tough trip to Chelsea on Saturday before games against Manchester United and Brighton just after the transfer window shuts. If Leicester end the summer losing key players and failing to sign anyone, then nobody could blame the team – or indeed the manager – for giving up on the project altogether.

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