Alex Keble takes a tactical looks at the Euro 2020 round of 16 fixtures.
Croatia v Spain: Suffocating press to nullify midfield
- 17:00 BST, Monday on ITV
- Parken Stadium - Copenhagen, Denmark
Slovakia were absolutely pummelled from start to finish by Spain and unfortunately it is likely that Croatia will face the same fate.
Luis Enrique has created a brilliantly cohesive high-pressing system at Euro 2020 that ensures Spain swarm their opponents and, winning the back as soon as they lose it, keep them pinned in the attacking third until the goals start flying in.
Their PPDA, a measure of pressing intensity based on the length of opposition passing sequences, is 5.62 – almost twice as low as any other nation still in the tournament.
Croatia aren’t a bad team, but they do not have the fitness, pace, or youth to cope with this sort of pressure. Their system is based predominantly on getting Luka Modric and Matteo Kovacic to dictate things from central midfield but both players will be camped deep inside their own half here, as will a front three that lacks the movement or speed to make runs in behind Spain’s high line.
Consequently the Croatians will be suffocated, worn down until falling to defeat.
England v Germany: Formation mirroring should help Three Lions
- 17:00 BST, Tuesday on BBC One
- Wembley Stadium - London, England
Gareth Southgate is widely expected to switch to his 3-4-3 formation for this game as England’s long preparation for the knockout stage begins. The dull football of the group games is essentially irrelevant to England’s tactical approach here, which will be to mirror Germany’s 3-4-3 and block them with conservative defensive attacks before hitting on the counter-attack. There is every reason to believe it will work.
The only game in which Germany have been dangerous so far is the 4-2 win over Portugal in which left wing-back Robin Gosens was inexplicably left free over and over again.
But the Germans’ reliance on overloads in the wide areas could come unstuck against an England system with wing-backs that shut down this space; a possession-centric 3-4-3 rarely does well when match man-for-man by the more defensive team. England should be able to absorb pressure, building on an excellent defensive record so far.
And their counters may prove lethal. Germany are porous between the lines and prone to serious mental fragility, hence why they have conceded five goals already this tournament.
Joachim Low’s side consistently leave spaces open on the outside of the back three, with France and Portugal cutting through far too easily; Southgate’s forwards Raheem Sterling and Jack Grealish can cause serious damage at Wembley, especially if Southgate makes the bold call of playing Bukayo Saka at right wing-back. Saka’s ability to progress the ball from deep can be England’s secret weapon on the break.
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