Our preview of the Europa Conference League final between Roma and Feyenoord

Roma v Feyenoord tips: UECL final best bets and preview

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Wed May 25, 2022 · 2y ago

Jose Mourinho's Roma take on Feyenoord in the Europa Conference League final on Wednesday. Jake Osgathorpe has the best bets for the game.

Football betting tips: Europa Conference League final

2pts Under 2.5 Goals in 90 minutes at 10/11 (Unibet, Sky Bet)

1.5pts Orkun Kokcu 1+ shot on target from outside the box at 13/8 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Jose Mourinho, in a European final.

The Portuguese coach has done it again, this time with Roma.

Now, I know what you are thinking; 'how can making the final of this third tier competition be seen as a success?'

Well, you haven't seen the raucous crowd in Rome celebrating after making it to this final.

After all, for Roma this represents a real chance to win UEFA European silverware for the first time in their history.

Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday

TV channel: BT Sport 1

Roma 6/5 | Draw 5/2 | Feyenoord 21/10

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For Mourinho, it would go down as another European trophy, completing the UEFA set - albeit this is the first edition of the Conference League.

They are rightly favourites to lift the trophy, but Feyenoord shouldn't be underestimated.

The Dutch side passed a stern test in the semi-final against Marseille, and have shown a real ability to create chances and score goals.

So, with that being the case, I am obviously backing UNDER 2.5 GOALS IN 90 MINUTES.

CLICK HERE to back Under 2.5 Goals in 90 minutes with Sky Bet

Yes, Feyenoord are free-scoring, but this is a final, and they play a Mourinho-led team.

Finals in general have been incredibly low-scoring over the past few years, with the risk-taking reduced as a result of increased tension and jeopardy, which has seen fewer goals.

We saw that last week when our Under 2.5 Goals bet landed in Frankfurt v Rangers, and the week before in the FA Cup final between Liverpool and Chelsea. I expect no different here.

Roma will set up to be difficult to beat, knowing that one goal will likely be enough to win the game, while Feyenoord know no other way of playing than being on the front foot, so they will likely be the aggressors.

I can't see them having much success though, and so siding with a low-scoring game appeals greatly at the near-even-money price.

Another bet that caught the eye was 13/8 about ORKUN KOKCU 1+ SHOT ON TARGET FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX.

CLICK HERE to back Orkun Kokcu 1+ shot on target from outside the box with Sky Bet

Kokcu is a starter for Feyenoord and given the way I expect the game to play out, with Roma sitting back and the Dutch side playing on the front foot, looking for a player who takes shots from long range is the angle.

Creating against a well-organised, deep-lying block is very difficult, and so players often get frustrated and try their luck from distance.

This is shown by the fact that the average distance of shots Roma have faced in Serie A this season stands at 17.7 yards - basically from the edge of their area.

All of this means that the Turkish midfielder fits the criteria we are looking for.

He has averaged 2.59 shots per 95 minutes in the Eredivisie this season, with 78% of those attempts coming from outside the box, meaning he has averaged around 2.02 shots per 95 minutes from outside the box.

Using the same (basic) calculations, Kokcu has averaged 0.64 shots on target from outside the area, making the 13/8 simply too big here.