Ajax may be behind but they will be confident of scoring as they take on Roma. Tom Carnduff has two best bets - including one at a huge 300/1.
Football betting tips: Roma v Ajax
1pt e.w. Nicolas Tagliafico to score first at 33/1 (Sky Bet) (e.w. terms 1/3 1-99)
0.5pt Nicolas Tagliafico to score 2+ goals at 300/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
A tie between the leading side of the Netherlands and one battling for European qualification in Italy sees Roma hold a 2-1 lead from victory in Amsterdam last week. Just how crucial Ibanez's 87th minute strike was will become much clearer in the second leg on Thursday.
While Roma have, on the whole, been very good at home this season, they boast the third-best home record in Italy's top-flight, there will be some worry about the fact they have recently lost to both Napoli and Milan, two teams currently above them in the standings.
Will this be a problem as they take on an Ajax side whose only away defeat in their last 20 outings was a narrow 1-0 loss to Liverpool at Anfield? The first leg handed them a rare defeat and we can't completely disregard the 7/5 price available on victory here.
Value in the goalscorer market
There are a couple of prices which stand out in the goalscorer market, particularly when we consider that Ajax need to score two here to stand any chance of progression. The one that immediately catches the eye is the 33/1 on NICOLAS TAGLIAFICO scoring first. We shouldn't let the fact that he only has one on his tally this season put us off.
Tagliafico came close to scoring in the first leg and that has been the story of his season so far. The left-back has hit at least five goals in his previous two campaigns but he's been unable to hit the net as often despite Ajax's lofty position at the top of the Eredivisie standings.
Despite being a full-back, Tagliafico has registered a huge 33 shots in the league. His last three Europa League appearances have brought six which includes two in Amsterdam last Thursday. Ajax missed a penalty among their 15 efforts on goal and won the Infogol expected goals scoreline by a comfortable 3.21 - 0.71.
A look into Tagliafico's statistics on Infogol show that his four Europa League appearances have seen a combined expected goals figure of 0.57. That's above 0.14 per game which is significant here. It demonstrates that he is getting chances to score and will eventually take one.
It's hardly a surprise given Ajax's preference to attack down their left. 37% of their attacks in the league come down that side of the pitch, more than the right (32%) and through the middle (31%). There may be added importance on Tagliafico's attacking output too if David Neres fails to shine again.
The 33/1 price on Tagliafico grabbing the first goal here is big and we do need to factor in his goalscoring return. However, the numbers show that he should have had more on his tally which includes one in defeat last week.
The price on offer also makes the each-way value a significant 11/1 with Sky Bet paying out on a goal anytime rather than a limited number of places. Betfair and Paddy Power offer the best anytime goalscorer odds at 12/1 but we'll go for the 33/1 each-way terms on the first of the contest.
I'm not completely against the eye-watering 300/1 with Betfair and Paddy Power on TAGLIAFICO TO SCORE 2+ GOALS either if there's a 'London buses' type theory behind it. He's drastically underperformed with his chances so far but a game where they need to score more than once may encourage that clinical edge.
What has drawn me to this bet, apart from the obvious huge price on offer, is that fact that he's done it before. Tagliafico has recorded a brace in each of his last two seasons - one of those was a Champions League contest is 2018/19.
Tagliafico is averaging 1.5 shots per game in the Eredivisie, 1.5 shots per game in the Europa League and operates on the side which Ajax prefer to attack down. I'd expect nothing greater than double figures in the pricing for this one, regardless of his actually scoring return so far.
The Dutch side's performance in the first leg gives hope to the 2/1 price on them to qualify for the next stage. They may be behind but need to score twice and, if they didn't waste chances, they would have done just that in the first leg. The better prices come in backing TAGLIAFICO to be among those goals.
Roma v Ajax best bets and score prediction
- 1pt e.w. Nicolas Tagliafico to score first at 33/1 (Sky Bet) (e.w. terms 1/3 1-99)
- 0.5pt Nicolas Tagliafico to score 2+ goals at 300/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Roma 1-3 Ajax (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (13/04/21)
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