Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Antonio Rüdiger 2+ total shots at 9/2 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Antonio Rüdiger to score from outside the box at 66/1 (bet365)
BuildABet @ 10/1
- Antonio Rüdiger 1+ shots on target
- Real Madrid 6+ corners
- Nico Schlotterbeck to commit 1+ fouls
A repeat of last season's Champions League final sees Real Madrid taking on Borussia Dortmund in a contest that should end with the same outcome.
Dortmund's campaign so far has been so typically Dortmund with a great win one game followed up by defeat in the next. Even by their own standards, it's quite remarkable.
In a two-week period, Nuri Şahin's side lost 5-1 to Stuttgart, beat Bochum 4-2, hammered Celtic 7-1 and then lost 2-1 away to Union Berlin.
It's hardly ideal as they travel to a Real Madrid team who really need victory following a surprise loss away at Lille prior to the latest international break.
All six of their last competitive home games have ended in victory, with each delivering at least two goals for the hosts. Given Dortmund's creativity issues on the road under Şahin, the visitors should have plenty of problems.
What are the best bets?
One of the multiple areas in which Dortmund will be outmuscled comes at set-pieces. It's no real surprise that Real have established themselves as one of the best in Spain at attacking them.
It's made worse by the potential absence of Niklas Süle again. He missed Friday's win over St. Pauli and opposition centre-back Eric Smith saw two shots - his goal a remarkable long range effort which found the top corner.
All three Union Berlin centre-backs took a shot the week prior, two of which were on target (Kevin Vogt did find the net from the penalty spot). Given that Real can run up the corner count, there's every chance of more defender success.
I'm happy to side with the best price of 9/2 with a couple of bookmakers for ANTONIO RÜDIGER 2+ TOTAL SHOTS, with the 7/2 elsewhere also fine.
Rüdiger's returned at least one shot in each of his two European outings this season - a goal coming in the 3-1 win over Stuttgart in mid-September.
In LaLiga, six of his nine starts have seen at least one shot, with contests against Las Palmas and Real Valladolid delivering two in each.
Dortmund conceded three shots to a centre-back in Club Brugge's Brandon Mechele on Matchday 1 with all of those as a result of set-piece situations.
Not only does Rüdiger deliver a significant threat from attacking corners and free-kicks, but we've seen multiple times in the past his desire to try, frankly, ridiculous shots from distance.
On that topic, I'll have a smaller-stakes play on the 66/1 for RÜDIGER TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX.
A big ask, of course, and especially one for a centre-back, but then we can factor in that 27% of his total shots across La Liga and Champions League appearances in 23/24 and 24/25 have come from range.
Team news
Real Madrid remain without defensive duo David Alaba and Dani Carvajal while forward Brahim Díaz is also unavailable.
In Carvajal's absence, Lucas Vazquez is expected to continue at right-back.
Dortmund have more issues to deal with as Karim Adeyemi remains sidelined with a thigh injury.
Julien Duranville, Yan Couto and Giovanni Reyna are also definitely unavailable for Şahin, with Pascal Groß and Süle unlikely to feature.
Predicted line-ups
Real Madrid XI: Courtois; Vazquez, Militao, Rüdiger, Mendy; Bellingham, Tchouameni, Valverde; Rodrygo, Mbappe, Vinicius Jr.
Borussia Dortmund XI: Kobel; Ryerson, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Bensebaini; Can, Sabitzer; Malen, Brandt, Bynoe-Gittens; Guirassy.
Match facts
- This game will see Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund meet for the first time since last season’s UEFA Champions League final, won 2-0 by the Madrid side at Wembley.
- Borussia Dortmund have never won in seven away UEFA Champions League matches at Real Madrid (D2 L5), with their most recent visit a 3-2 defeat in December 2017.
- No side has ever played more away UEFA Champions League matches at one stadium without winning than Borussia Dortmund at the Santiago Bernabéu (P7 D2 L5), with Chelsea also playing seven times without success at Barcelona’s Spotify Camp Nou.
- Real Madrid manager Carlo Ancelotti has alternated between a win (4) and defeat (3) in seven UEFA Champions League meetings with Borussia Dortmund, winning the most recent game in last season’s final. His four wins against them have all come in different decades – 1997 with Parma, 2002 with Milan and 2014 and 2024 with Real Madrid.
- Real Madrid were beaten by Lille last time out in the UEFA Champions League (0-1), ending a 14-game unbeaten run in the competition (W10 D4). In games played in the group/league stage, they haven’t suffered consecutive Champions League defeats since the period between December 2018 and September 2019 (0-3 v CSKA Moscow and Paris SG).
- Borussia Dortmund are the top scorers in the UEFA Champions League this season (10), as well as the team with the biggest positive differential between xG and goals scored (+5.5 – 10 goals from 4.5 xG). Indeed, it took them until their eighth game in the competition last term to reach 10 goals.
- Borussia Dortmund are the team that have averaged the most passes per sequence of play in the UEFA Champions League this season (5.95 – from open play), just ahead of Manchester City (5.91). The German side averaged 3.35 passes per sequence in the competition last term, which ranked 17th overall.
- Borussia Dortmund are the opponent that Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappé has faced the most times in the UEFA Champions League (8) – after scoring three goals in his first two games against them (in 2016-17 for Monaco), he’s only netted once in the last six and failed to find the net in the last three.
- Since the start of last season, the two players with the most assists delivered in the UEFA Champions League are Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham and Borussia Dortmund’s Marcel Sabitzer (five each). Three of Bellingham’s five assists have also coming following a carry (travelling 5+ metres with the ball); the joint-most in this period, along with Phil Foden (3).
- Jamie Bynoe-Gittens has netted two goals in two appearances for Borussia Dortmund in the UEFA Champions League this season. If he finds the net in this game, he’d be the youngest Englishman ever to score against Real Madrid in the competition (20y 75d), with Alan Smith being the current-youngest (20y 129d for Leeds United in March 2001).
Odds correct at 1330 BST (21/10/24)
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