Champions League betting tips: Real Madrid v Chelsea best bets and preview
Chelsea travel to Spain to take on Real Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League semi-final, and Jake Pearson thinks there could be goals in this game.
Football betting tips: Real Madrid v Chelsea
1pt Both Teams To Score at 11/10 (SportNation)
1pt Under 3.5 cards at 6/5 (Unibet)
After a somewhat inauspicious start to the season, Real Madrid could realistically end the campaign having won both La Liga and the Champions League, providing Zinedine Zidane with his fourth victory as a manager in European club football’s premier competition.
Real were held to a frustrating 0-0 draw with Real Betis at the weekend, missing out on an opportunity to go level on points at the top of the league, but with Atletico and Barcelona still to face off in the season’s closing weeks, the possibility of a second successive La Liga title is still very real for Zidane’s side.
Real have drawn two of their last three in the league, but still remain unbeaten in La Liga since late November, and their recent Champions League performances have demonstrated just how devastating they can be.
Their 3-1 demolition of Liverpool in the first leg of their quarter-final tie was a spectacle, with Madrid looking incredibly accomplished as well as clinical. The return leg was much more a case of getting the job done, holding Liverpool to a 0-0 draw at Anfield.
And yet, there were times across both legs where Real were exposed at the back. Against Chelsea they face a side in impressive form.
A 1-0 victory over West Ham at the weekend puts the Blues firmly in the driving seat as far as a top-four finish in the Premier League is concerned. It was also their third consecutive clean sheet, a stretch that includes their recent 1-0 victory over Manchester City in the FA Cup semi-final.
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Thomas Tuchel has undeniably made a huge difference at Stamford Bridge since succeeding Frank Lampard. His influence over the back four has been particularly well-reported.
Here we have two well-drilled, defensive teams. Over their last six combined fixtures, these two sides have conceded a total of four goals. But this is a different kettle of fish; this is a Champions League semi-final.
Keeping clean sheets against the likes of Cadiz and Getafe is one thing, but in their last three matches against teams from the current top five in La Liga – Barcelona (3rd), Atletico Madrid (1st) and Real Sociedad (5th) – Real Madrid have conceded on all three occasions, as well as conceding at home to Liverpool in the first leg of their quarter-final tie.
Chelsea’s defensive record under Tuchel has been impressive, but as West Brom demonstrated at the beginning of the month, they are not completely infallible.
When we arrive at this stage of a competition such as the Champions League, the chances of both teams scoring must increase, given the increased quality of players on show, and though initial feelings may be that this will be a tight, cagey affair, that is not where the value lies.
When this fixture was officially confirmed, bet365, as well as a few other firms, priced up Both Teams To Score as short as 4/6. Since those opening prices, the odds for such an occurrence has drifted significantly, perhaps in part because both Sergio Ramos and Raphael Varane are expected to be back in the fray for Real.
The fact that BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE is now odds-against, however, looks far too much of an overreaction, and a price of 11/10 for both Real Madrid and Chelsea to find the net makes plenty of appeal.
I'd also be looking towards the total number of cards dished out by Dutch referee Danny Makkelie, and the 6/5 offer of UNDER 3.5 CARDS with Unibet stands out in this market.
Chelsea have averaged just over 1.25 yellow cards per match in the Premier League this season – only Aston Villa have averaged less – while Real Madrid have averaged just over 1.5 cautions per match in La Liga – by far the lowest in the Spanish top flight.
Real Madrid v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams To Score at 11/10 (SportNation)
- 1pt Under 3.5 cards at 6/5 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1300 BST (26/04/21)
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