Promotion-hunting pair Reading and Bournemouth meet in the Sky Bet Championship on Friday night. Michael Beardmore is staggered by the markets in this one.
Football betting tips: Sky Bet Championship
1pt Lucas Joao to score first in Reading v Bournemouth at 11/2
1pt Lucas Joao to score last in Reading v Bournemouth at 11/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Reading v Bournemouth
- 20:00 GMT Friday kick-off on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 5/2 | Draw 12/5 | Away 11/10
Just one place and two points separate hosts Reading from visitors Bournemouth as the sides sitting fifth and sixth in the Sky Bet Championship meet on Friday night.
Not that you would think that looking at the odds, with bookmakers across the board making the Cherries comfortable favourites and hopefully providing value hunters with some decent fodder.
Reading made a lightning start to the season, claiming 22 points from the first 24 to set the early pace before a run of four successive defeats pulled them back towards the pack.
Many might have expected a club that has finished the past three seasons 14th, 20th and 20th to fade away from there but Veljko Paunovic’s Royals seem to be made of sterner stuff.
They’ve taken 22 points from 39 since that four-game losing run and rediscovered the defensive steel they had in spades at the start of the season, conceding just three goals in their past six games.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, enjoyed a prolific few weeks in November and early December – six wins and 23 goals in nine games – but points and goals have slightly dried up since.
They have just five points from the last 18 available, losing to Luton and Derby in that run, and the 6/5 or 5/4 generally on offer about an away win at the Madejski consequently holds little appeal.
Reading, meanwhile, are as big as 5/2 with Sky Bet – at home, in decent nick, playing a team below them in the table that has struggled for results recently, a couple of FA Cup wins against lower-league opposition apart. That price screams value and has to be taken.
Bournemouth, a Premier League club for several seasons, have plenty of quality in their ranks especially after re-signing Jack Wilshere to add to a side featuring David Brooks, Dominic Solanke and Josh King.
But they have scored twice in their past five away league games and the value here lies firmly with the hosts – we could attempt to add an under/over goals bet but with each side blowing hot and cold in front of goal, why risk it when a great price is on offer for just a home win?
The Cherries did win the reverse fixture 4-2 in November, coming from 2-0 down to do so on a day when Lucas Joao gave the Royals an early lead.
I like the 11/2 on offer with Sporting Index for Reading's Portuguese forward to repeat that feat. That looks a unit or maybe two too big on a man who is the Championship’s third highest scorer despite missing five games injured in December. He’s 7/2 or 4/1 most places.
Joao missed a penalty in the goalless draw at Preston last weekend but retains the faith of Paunovic after 17 goals this term – 14 in the league – and he has only gone two games without scoring on one occasion in a prolific season.
He has opened the scoring in five of Reading’s games this term and has scored the last goal in seven of them – including two injury-time strikes – which is why I’m advising a back-up play on him to net last too, at the same odds with the same firm in the belief he will fire the Royals to a narrow victory.
Score prediction: Reading 1-0 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Reading v Bournemouth best bets
1pt Reading to win at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Lucas Joao to score first in Reading v Bournemouth at 11/2 (Sporting Index)
1pt Lucas Joao to score last in Reading v Bournemouth at 11/2 (Sporting Index)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT (27/01/21)
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