Rasmus Højlund to Manchester United: What will he bring?
Erik ten Hag and Manchester United scored a total of 56 goals in the Premier League last season, only the eighth highest tally in the league. A deeper look at the underlying data will tell you that they underperformed their expected goals (xG) by about 12.
Only Everton and Chelsea underperformed by a greater margin than the Red Devils, so it became clear that Ten Hag needed a number nine who is reliable and available to get the goals and finish the chances created by their stars.
After a long summer of links with Harry Kane, Victor Osimhen and others, United have finally got the number nine for the present and future in Atalanta star Rasmus Højlund, with the 20-year-old joining the club for a reported fee of £72m.
Ready for the Premier League
At first glance, Højlund looks ready-made for Premier League football.
Standing at 6ft 3in tall, the Dane is lightening quick for his size and is a handful for defenders when running at full speed.
Højlund's height and physique allows him to occupy defenders in different ways, whether it be with his back to goal or running in behind to stretch opposition defenses, with those attributes making him a significantly better fit for life in the Premier League football, despite how raw he is as a forward.
In terms of his profile as a player, Højlund is an explosive runner on and off the ball, especially in transition phases where he eats up space at will, outrunning most defenders with ease.
At Atalanta, he lined up alongside Ademola Lookman in a 3-5-2 system, who complemented Højlund's strengths as a striker perfectly.
Whereas Lookman looked to drop deeper to receive the ball and link play, Højlund looks to receive passes in behind more often as opposed to receiving to his feet.
What is especially impressive with his ability to run in behind is how quickly he creates a separation between himself and opposition defenders by attempting to get a head-start on them whilst making his runs.
It has to be said that Højlund benefitted from Atalanta's change in style under Gian Piero Gasperini last season, where they became far more transitional as a team as compared to previous seasons.
This played perfectly to Højlund's strengths as a young striker, removing greater onus on him as a forward in possession.
The numbers are good
The young Dane found the back of the net nine times last season in 20 starts for Atalanta, as well as scoring three for Sturm Graz in five appearances in the Austrian Bundesliga.
He wasn't always first choice for Gasperini in the forward line, however, injury problems for the likes of Duvan Zapata and Luis Muriel forced the Bergamo boss to change plans and bring Højlund into the fold.
The Dane averaged 0.46 non-penalty xG per 90 last season, which ranked him fifth amongst Serie A players over the course of the campaign, with only Edin Dzeko, Moise Kean, Lautaro Martinez and Victor Osimhen ranking higher.
Højlund's impressive figures are a result of his ability to arrive into high-value spots in and around the box, bursting into space in behind. His willingness to take shots with both feet is an added advantage as well, though he is primarily left-footed.
He looks to receive the ball in the right half-spaces and then make darting runs inwards towards the left, cutting across centre backs and getting in behind to attack the near post.
This tendency of his to make runs in behind explains his excellent showing on progressive receptions, with Højlund averaging about 11 progressive receptions per 90 according to Opta, underlining just how often he finds himself on the end of dangerous passes.
Højlund will often drift to the channels to receive the ball from fellow team-mates and then attempt to dribble past opposition markers to get into scoring positions. In fact, last season, the Dane attempted 3.68 take-ons per 90 with a success rate of 37%.
His technique leaves a lot of room for improvement, however, he is quite agile for his size and more comfortable turning on the ball than the average number nine striker across the top five leagues.
Explosive in transition
Where Højlund is at his best is during transition situations when the ball is turned over and there is space to eat up in behind.
That's the kind of scenarios where his strengths in ball carrying also shine through, the Dane was second only to Lookman for shot ending carries last season according to Opta, which shows his promise in that area.
In Gasperini's transitional Atalanta last season, where there was lesser focus on possession of the ball, Højlund was able to showcase his athletic prowess in not only speeding past opposition markers but also timing his runs in behind well enough.
The Dane rarely drops deeper to receive the ball and if he isn't central and high up the pitch, he can be found ready to receive wider in the channel from where he can cut inside and manufacture chances.
For someone with his physique, Højlund surprisingly struggles with aerial duels, faring much better with back-to-goal ground duels than aerial duels, something worth thinking about for Ten Hag in terms of his box presence and ability to impact chances aerially.
Out of possession, Højlund's numbers do not provide strong evidence of his work-rate but the Dane is a willing presser off the ball. In attacking scenarios, Højlund has often a certain 'double-movement' to deceive opposition centre-backs by dragging them one way and then darting across into the space that he was able to create.
This is evident during counter-attacking situations and in the way in which he arrives into the box to connect with chances.
Concerns over fee
United are expected to fork out a £72m for the Atalanta starlet which most definitely feels like an overpayment on the evidence of his minutes played thus far and limited experience in the top five leagues.
The Dane has never scored more than 10 goals in a domestic season in his albeit young career and hasn't racked up more than 2000 minutes across a season yet.
The fee that United are paying for Højlund is a gamble on the player they expect him to become in future seasons. From what he's shown so far, Højlund is likely to become very good if not elite and will likely need a season or two to fully click into gear in Premier League life.
Ten Hag has spoken recently about wanting to transform United into the best transitional team in world football and if that's the long term plan, then Højlund is certainly an ideal fit.
Whether he is eventually spoken about like elite strikers such as Victor Osimhen, Kylian Mbappe and Erling Haaland, remains to be seen.