Premier League: Team-by-team preview for the 2021/22 season
In the order of Infogol's forecasted finishing positions for the new campaign, Liam Kelly picks out a data point that could make or break each Premier League team's season.
Manchester City: 1st
Manchester City's comfortable 2020/21 Premier League title win was thoroughly deserved, but it came in a way we might not have expected — driven by defensive solidity.
Pep Guardiola's side were severely exposed at the back at the start of the season, putting in performances that provoked a significant shift to a more cautious approach.
They posted astounding defensive numbers across their next 24 league matches, conceding an average of 0.62 expected goals against (xGA) per game and shipping just 10 goals, allowing City to coast at the top of the table.
It will be interesting to see if they apply the same method given the focus on attack-minded players in the summer transfer window, signing £100m man Jack Grealish and chasing Harry Kane.
Did the successful, much-changed City bore Pep? I guess we'll find out this season.
Liverpool: 2nd
Liverpool's title defence was far from what we were expecting, but it did end on a positive note, qualifying for the Champions League from a seemingly impossible position.
A shocking number of injuries was the story of their season, especially at the back. The Reds held up creditably in defence, though, averaging 1.28 xGA per game, but it undoubtedly affected the team at every level.
With a relatively fresh, full compliment of players available, an immediate area Liverpool can improve upon is their ability to finish chances. Jurgen Klopp's side scored 68 goals from chances equating to 76.8 xG last season, a substantial underperformance.
A regression to the mean, along with the return of key players, could see Liverpool back in the title race.
Chelsea: 3rd
Chelsea's rapid improvement under Thomas Tuchel, which has predominantly come on the defensive side of the ball, puts them firmly in contention for the 2021/22 Premier League crown.
They conceded 13 goals while averaging an incredible 0.68 xGA per game across the 19 league games played under Tuchel, solidity which vaulted the Blues into a top-four spot, helped Chelsea make the FA Cup final and eventually claim Champions League glory.
A replication of such numbers this season, alongside a slight improvement in attack — maybe in the form of Romelu Lukaku — would alarm all contenders.
Manchester United: 4th
Ole Gunnar Solskjær should be satisfied that his team managed to push their city rivals as far as they did last term, but from a data standpoint, United need more if they want to challenge for the league this season.
Jadon Sancho should provide a huge boost to a team that struggled to match their fellow contenders in terms of creating chances last season.
United averaged 1.73 expected goals for (xGF) per game in 2020/21, a figure that teams such as West Ham, Aston Villa and Leeds almost matched.
Excuses are now few and far between for United - they should be competing with the best this upcoming campaign.
Leicester: 5th
Despite missing out on Champions League football, Leicester can be delighted with their 2020/21 campaign, winning the FA Cup after what was a disappointing conclusion in the league. It's no longer surprising to see the Foxes mixing it with the 'big six'.
It was surprising, however, to see Jamie Vardy fall short in terms of finishing his chances last term, netting 15 times from chances equating to 20.96 xG. His team picked up the slack, with Leicester scoring 68 times from 60.0 xG over the course of the season.
The arrival of Patson Daka could signal a limitation in Vardy's minutes this season, a battle to watch as Leicester continue to spot profitable talent with their excellent recruitment process.
Arsenal: 6th
Arsenal have had a quietly solid summer, bringing in some fresh young faces, including England international Ben White, and extending the contract of midfield lynchpin Granit Xhaka.
Although it may not look pretty at times, Mikel Arteta advanced Arsenal impressively over the course of the 2020/21 season. The Gunners averaged 1.57 xGF and 1.20 xGA per game after Christmas, their best period since Arsene Wenger left the club.
It's practically impossible to satisfy Arsenal fans, who we've seen criticise their team for both winning while performing poorly and losing while performing well, but they should be pleased with the direction Arteta has them heading in.
Tottenham: 7th
Based on his 2020/21 numbers, Harry Kane is irreplaceable at Tottenham. Unfortunately for Spurs, it looks like he might need to be replaced, with the striker reportedly attempting to force a move away from the club.
Kane topped the Premier League scoring charts last season, scoring 23 goals from 21.19 xG, but, perhaps unpredictably, he also led the league in assists (14) too.
Assists are a noisy stat, as advertised by his more representative expected assists (xA) total of 7.40, but it was nonetheless impressive given his contribution in terms of goals.
It's safe to say Tottenham's season hinges on a transfer saga that is far from an amicable conclusion.
West Ham: 8th
There wasn't really a standout data point for the Hammers last season, which encapsulates their exceptional campaign rather well, qualifying for the Europa League after finishing sixth.
David Moyes' side were simply a very solid unit throughout, averaging 1.64 xGF and 1.41 xGA per game, and it's hard to see a reason why things should change much in east London.
West Ham have had a quiet transfer window so far, which reads as a positive, making a permanent move for Craig Dawson and bringing in the excellent Alphonse Areola in goal. If they can manage the added workload of a European campaign well, Moyes' men look set for another good season.
Everton: 9th
The Toffees held an unjustifiably privileged position for much of last season, ending the 2020/21 campaign in 10th place with an underlying process deserving of a lower finish.
Everton fans might be underwhelmed by the appointment of Rafa Benitez, but it should be an upgrade on Carlo Ancelotti, who failed to inspire despite possessing a talented squad.
An area in need of swift improvement is Everton's home form. Only Burnley, Crystal Palace and the three relegated teams held an inferior expected goal difference (xGD) when playing at home last season - Everton posted a -2.1 xGD across their 19 league games at Goodison Park.
Leeds: 10th
Marcelo Bielsa's men were undoubtedly the most entertaining team to watch in the Premier League last term, which was borne out in their underlying numbers.
Matches involving Leeds averaged 3.35 xG between the teams, a much higher figure than any other side in the league. Thankfully for the neutral, Bielsa will not change his methods.
Fewer injuries may even elicit further improvement from Leeds, a scary thought considering the Yorkshire side finished in ninth place last season.
Aston Villa: 11th
Not much research is required to identify the turning point in Aston Villa's 2020/21 season — Jack Grealish's injury. They were in an extremely promising position in the Premier League before falling away in his absence.
And it's no surprise why. At the time of Grealish's injury, he was mixing it with the very best in the league in terms of chance creation.
Villa held a +7.0 xGD and averaged 1.75 points per game with him in the starting line-up. Without their captain and talisman, they posted a -2.5 xGD and averaged 0.93 points per game.
That doesn't bode well for Dean Smith's side following Grealish's £100m departure to City, but their recruitment has been excellent this summer, bringing in Emi Buendia, Danny Ings and Leon Bailey to help fill the significant void.
Brighton: 12th
Brighton's inability to win matches they dominate is both frustrating and comical in equal measure.
Last season's underlying numbers perfectly summarises those frustrations, ending the campaign fourth - (yes fourth!) - on Infogol's xG table thanks to a massive underperformance on their attacking numbers.
The Seagulls scored only 40 goals from opportunities equating to 56.7 xG, which must be exasperating to watch from the sideline. However, if Graham Potter's side can live up to their outstanding metrics, watch out.
Burnley: 13th
If past performance is anything to go by, we can pencil in Burnley's season right now. They've consistently Burnley'd their way to safety despite producing insipid underlying numbers.
Sean Dyche's team averaged 1.13 xGF and 1.59 xGA per game en route to a poor finish last season, but, fortunately for the Clarets, three clubs failed to reach 30 points.
The newly-promoted sides do look a little better this year, but tradition is tradition, so another safe bottom-half finish awaits.
Wolves: 14th
Wolves were unable to sustain their previously incredible defensive numbers last season. Coupled with a sharp decline in metrics from an injury-hit attack, Wolves were a very tough watch, which could explain Nuno Espirito Santo's exit.
They averaged 1.48 xGA per game en route to a disappointing placing after allowing 1.22 xGA per game in 2018/19 and 1.08 xGA per game in 2019/20.
Although the talent is there to do so, new manager Bruno Lage has issues to fix at both ends of the pitch.
Southampton: 15th
The Saints survived an injury-ravaged campaign last term, comfortably remaining in the top tier after a relegation scare, but they might be in for more struggles in 2021/22.
Southampton's standout stat last season relates to the lack of attacking threat Ralph Hasenhüttl's side displayed, averaging just 1.24 xGF per game.
Danny Ings' surprise move to Aston Villa will only serve to exacerbate the worries behind Southampton's capability to cause opponents problems.
Newcastle: 16th
Despite looking like a true relegation candidate for much of last term, Newcastle survived with consummate ease, gaining 14 points from their final seven games.
Was that a sign of headway under Steve Bruce or just a flash in the pan? Newcastle averaged 1.93 xGF per game across those seven fixtures, a level of entertainment that could calm furious fans in the coming season.
Joe Willock, who scored in each of the final seven matches, looks set to return to St. James' Park for the 2021/22 campaign, offering hope that Newcastle can continue their much-needed progress... but it might take more than that to give Bruce some respite.
Brentford: 17th
Brentford finally achieved their goal of promotion, surging through the play-offs after finishing third in the Sky Bet Championship.
It's difficult to predict how Thomas Frank's side will acclimatise to the top tier this season, but their defensive numbers should stand them in good stead, averaging 0.90 xGA per game in 2020/21.
That is a solid base to work from in a debut Premier League season. The fact that their squad hasn't been picked apart for the first time in years is another positive.
Crystal Palace: 18th
A new era has started at Crystal Palace, with Patrick Vieira taking over from Roy Hodgson at Selhurst Park, a change that was essential for the future of the club.
The Eagles achieved safety while grossly outperforming their underlying numbers for a second successive season last term, ending up 18th on Infogol's xG table with a -28.4 xGD.
An ageing side has been refreshed by young faces this summer, but Vieira faces a stiff test in his first season at Palace.
Norwich: 19th
Much like their 2018/19 Sky Bet Championship campaign, Daniel Farke's side earned promotion to the Premier League with relative ease.
That didn't stop Norwich from struggling the following season, though, gaining just 21 points when propping up the table in 2019/20, scoring only 26 goals in 38 matches and recording the least xGF in the league that season.
A similar outcome could be on the cards this term considering Emi Buendia has left and Todd Cantwell appears to be on the way out. Their new signings are intriguing, but it might not be enough to bridge the gap to safety.
Watford: 20th
It's no surprise to see Watford as the team bottom of Infogol's forecasted Premier League table ahead of the new season.
The Hornets didn't produce the underlying numbers that Brentford and Norwich managed last season despite gaining automatic promotion, creating far fewer chances than their newly-promoted counterparts (1.48 xGF per game).
Xisco Munoz did improve the team on arrival, but an uninspiring summer in the transfer market makes survival unlikely for Watford. If they start poorly, he might not last long given the club's history.