QPR v Swansea tips: Championship best bets and preview
Jake Pearson preview's Swansea's visit to high-flying QPR, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Championship
2pts QPR to take more corners than Swansea at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
QPR arrive into this fixture as one of the most in-form teams in the Sky Bet Championship, winning each of their last five matches in all competitions.
Charlie Austin’s late goal against West Brom a couple of weeks back sent the Rs above the Baggies in the table, and Mark Warburton’s men showed no signs of letting up as they beat Coventry 2-1 at the weekend.
They are now just two points behind second-place Bournemouth, and though Fulham look home and hosed as far as the title is concerned, there is all to play for in terms of the remaining automatic promotion spot.
Kick-off time: 19:45 GMT, Tuesday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
QPR 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Swansea 5/2
Swansea’s 1-0 victory over Preston at the weekend ended a run of five matches without a win for Russell Martin’s side, and perhaps now they can begin looking up the table, rather than over their shoulders.
Despite currently sitting in 17th in the Championship, Swansea are actually closer to the play-off spots than they are to the relegation zone in terms of points, and they hold at least two games in hand on all the teams in the top six (four games in hand on some).
To say that Swansea are in a false position would be wrong though, and in fact it could be argued that the Swans are potentially fortunate not to be a couple of places lower in the table.
In terms of chances creating they have not performed well this season, with only the current bottom four boasting a worse expected goals for (xGF) return per match this season.
That Swansea are only creating chances equating to 1.06 xGF per game is made worse by the fact they are conceding 1.40 xGA per game – the sixth highest in the league.
Affording opportunities to your opponents whilst struggling to carve out any yourselves is never going to bode well, and despite their games in hand, if Swansea continue performing at their current rate they will struggle to pick up the necessary points to put themselves into contention for a place in the top six.
A trip to the Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium to take on high-flying QPR is made no easier by the fact that only Peterborough and Barnsley have picked up fewer points away from hoke than Swansea this season; the Swans could be in for a tough evening.
The recommended selection in this fixture does not come in the 1X2 market though, but in the corner market, with QPR TO TAKE MORE CORNERS THAN SWANSEA available at a very appealing price of 5/6.
The Rs have average 6.15 corners per game at home this season, compared to the 4.5 that the Swans have won on average when on the road.
Swansea's lack of cutting edge an angle worth exploiting
More pertinent than that though, is the approach both sides may adopt in this game.
Swansea average a higher possession count than any other team in the Championship – a remarkable statistic when considering their league position – but they rarely convert that possession into shooting opportunities, taking just 10.5 shots per match on average – the seventh fewest in the division.
QPR, meanwhile, average a lower possession count, but only four sides take more shots on average than Warburton’s men.
Shots are an important factor when considering corner betting, but perhaps even more so are crosses. QPR currently sit fourth in the table in terms of average crosses per game, while no side have attempted fewer than Swansea this season.
While the Swans may enjoy more of the ball, these statistics point towards more action in front of the Swansea goal than in front of the QPR goal, and with that potentially leading to corners, backing the home side to take more than the away side seems a shrewd bet.
QPR v Swansea best bets and score prediction
- 2pts QPR to take more corners than Swansea at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: QPR 1-0 Swansea (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1115 GMT (24/01/22)
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