Liverpool v Wolves free betting tips: Best bets and tactical preview | Premier League
Winter has arrived, and with it confirmation this will be a uniquely challenging Premier League season. As the cold sets in and the fixtures pile up it’s beginning to look like a frosty, gruelling run-up to Christmas for those juggling European competition with hopes of a title push.
Not a single one of the current top four won last weekend and only four points separates first from seventh; separates Liverpool from Wolverhampton Wanderers, who go head-to-head at Anfield on Sunday. As usual in this most chaotic of Premier League campaigns, it’s anyone’s game.
Jurgen Klopp’s decision not to rest players for the crucial midweek game against Ajax only adds to the hosts’ vulnerability. Liverpool, in the midst of an injury crisis, are more fatigued than most, and following a disappointing 1-1 draw with Brighton it has become apparent the fine margins of victory enjoyed throughout 2019/20 have been eroded by the impacts of the pandemic.
And Wolves have always taken Klopp’s Liverpool close, winning two of their last six meetings and losing the other four by a single goal. Nuno Espirito Santo knows how to nullify the Liverpool attack, how to dig in when it matters, and how to unsettle Klopp’s back four. Wolves are perhaps better placed than anyone to end Liverpool’s unbeaten Anfield record.
Wolves’ strengths against the ‘Big Six’
Nuno has switched to a 4-2-3-1 formation for the last two matches, surprisingly moving away from the three-man defence following a disappointing defeat to Leicester. The change yielded a more fluid counter-attacking performance against Arsenal, in which Daniel Podence and Pedro Neto combined excellently on the break centrally.
This helped create extra room on the right for Adama Traore as Wolves picked all three of their best creative players for the first time this season. Arsenal could not cope with the speed and intelligence of their movement as the visitors absorbed pressure and broke forward quickly. This is the same basic premise as Wolves regularly deploy against the ‘Big Six’, and certainly characterises their approach to Liverpool matches in recent seasons.
However, it is likely that Nuno will revert to a 3-4-3 for the trip to Anfield because it will provide additional defensive support. Three centre-backs allows Wolves to remain tight to the narrow Liverpool front three, preventing them from being overwhelmed centrally, while the wing-backs have the freedom to push up and meet Liverpool’s dangerous full-backs.
Nevertheless the counter-attacking approach will be similar. Podence and Neto can expect to pick up clever positions between the lines when Wolves regain possession deep in their own half, with Ruben Neves and Joao Moutinho neatly evading the press to find them.
Where Liverpool will be targeted
All of that is consistent with how Wolves have approached tougher fixtures under Nuno, but injuries make this weekend’s contest notably different – and could have a big impact on how and where Wolves look to target the hosts.
Raul Jimenez’s head injury means teenager Fabio Silva is likely to be trusted up front, which would certainly give Fabinho an easier time than anticipated, although Nuno may well deploy Podence or Adama Traore as a false nine in order to keep all of his creative players in the starting line-up. Traore’s dribbling speed could be a crucial tool behind Liverpool’s high defensive line, which has become increasingly disorganised during Virgil van Dijk’s absence despite regular clean sheets.
In the 1-1 draw with Brighton, Aaron Connolly was consistently put in behind with one long ball forward on the break as Graham Potter aimed for Liverpool’s right-hand side. Joel Matip’s return should strengthen Liverpool’s resolve, but Nuno will still look to get Wolves breaking at speed through a back four that has not played together on many occasions.
Whether Traore or Silva, it is an area of the pitch to keep an eye on, particularly as Liverpool’s press has dropped off this season. Klopp appears to be instructing his players to conserve energy, but this is giving opponents time to get their head up in midfield and pick out that forward pass. Ruben Neves’s passing range should cause a lot of problems.
How Jota can inspire Liverpool
Against a deep and compact Wolves defence, Liverpool’s chance creation will be severely limited, but in former Wolves player Diogo Jota they have an in-form forward capable of dancing through the very spaces the visitors tend to leave open.
In the 3-1 defeat to Manchester City, the only game this season in which Wolves have conceded more than a single goal, Nuno’s narrow 5-3-2 formation left gaps either side of the midfield, giving Kevin de Bruyne and Raheem Sterling far too much room in the half-spaces to link with Phil Foden and unlock the back line.
Even in a 3-4-3 it is here the Wolves’ armour has the smallest of chinks. Their wing-backs could be pushed back by Andrew Robertson and Neco Williams while the speed in that ever-revolving midfield trio will prove distracting, possibly leaving pockets on either side of Moutinho and Neves. This is an area Klopp’s side have previously targeted, and in Jota they possess a creative attacker capable of cutting inside to link neatly in this zone.
He is certainly Liverpool’s most dangerous asset in what should be a tight game with few clear-cut chances for either side. Wolves’ defensive organisation will slow down a Liverpool attack already starting to wane as winter sets in, and as injuries sew doubt into Klopp’s defence it is easy to imagine Podence, Neto, and Traore causing serious damage. But with Jota in form, and given Liverpool’s record at Anfield, a battling draw, priced at 10/3, seems the most likely outcome.
Odds correct at 1115 GMT (03/12/20)
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