Struggling QPR visit hot-and-cold Preston North End in Friday night's televised Championship fixture. Michael Beardmore picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Championship
2pts Ilias Chair to have over 0.5 shots on target at Evs (bet365)
0.5pts Ilias Chair to be shown a card at 13/2 (Sky Bet)
- Michael Beardmore (@MickeyBeardmore) is +22pts in profit for the 2023/24 football season
To steal a line from Forrest Gump, predicting Preston is like a box of chocolates - you never know what you're gonna get.
Storming off to a stunning start with six straight wins amid an eight-game unbeaten run, the Lilywhites have since lost six of their past 10 to come crashing down to earth a little bit.
Nonetheless, they remain eighth in the Championship table due to that fantastic early-season form - and that's a position struggling QPR would bite your hand off for.
The R's sacked club legend Gareth Ainsworth after six straight losses and brought in Spaniard Marti Cifuentes - he's overseen an improvement with a first home win of the season plus two draws in their past four but they remain six points from safety.
What are the best bets?
Usually, when a team sitting eighth is at home to one lying 22nd, you'd snap up odds-against prices on the hosts - you can get 23/20 on a Preston win - but it's difficult to back a team that has won just two of their past 11 matches.
Additionally, North End have massively overperformed their xG all season - FootyStats' figures of 0.82 xGF (Expected Goals For) and 1.45 xGA (Expected Goals Against) are more in line with a relegation-threatened side than a promotion-chasing one.
That suggests they were a tad fortunate at the start of the season and the luck has run out. However, we have to acknowledge QPR have won just once in 13 games - and that was against 10-man Stoke. New boss bounce or not, they're a tough sell too.
One man who is not a tough sell, however, is Rangers playmaker ILIAS CHAIR. The Moroccan has unleashed a whopping 39 shots in 17 league games this season, with 13 on target, yet is even money for OVER 0.5 SHOTS ON TARGET with bet365.
Last year he had 30 SoT in 40 games from 97 efforts, 34 on target in 39 matches from 91 attempts the year before. Boy, he likes to have a pop at goal and because he attempts so many, he usually tests the goalkeeper at some stage.
Chair has also appeared reinvigorated under Cifuentes, registering 11 attempts in his three games under the Spaniard, including eight in two away trips and scoring his first goal of the campaign to boot. Even money looks well overpriced.
I'm also going to back Chair at a bigger price in the cards markets, considering he has been booked five times already this term yet is 13/2 TO BE SHOWN A CARD at Deepdale. He clearly has the grit between his teeth at the minute.
BuildABet @18/1
- Chair 1+ shots on target
- Jack Colback to be carded
- Ryan Ledson to be carded
Referee Josh Smith has issued 66 yellow cards and three reds in 17 games this season - that's basically four cards a game.
As well as helping our individual Chair card selection, we can use his propensity to pull out his notebook to aid our BuildABet.
QPR midfielder Jack Colback has seven yellows already this season, while his Preston counterpart Ryan Ledson has four. Both top their teams' foul counts in terms of infringements per game.
Score prediction: Preston 1-1 QPR (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Team news
Preston boss Ryan Lowe could be tempted to make changes from the side that were thrashed 4-0 at Middlesbrough in midweek - and he will definitely be forced into at least one alteration.
Midfielder Brad Potts collected his fifth booking of the season at The Riverside, meaning he will serve a one-match suspension which could lead to Liverpool loanee Calvin Ramsay making his first start for North End.
QPR have no new injury worries following their 4-2 win over Stoke although Cifuentes must decide whether fresh legs are needed for Rangers' third game in seven days.
Chris Willock scored off the bench against the Potters to push his claims for a return to the starting XI, with youngster Elijah Dixon-Bonner perhaps the likeliest to make way.
Predicted line-ups
Preston: Woodman, Storey, Lindsay, Hughes, Ramsay, Browne, Ledson, Holmes, Keane, Frokjaer-Jensen, Osmajic.
QPR: Begovic, Kakay, Dunne, Cook, Paal, Colback, Field, Willock, Chair, Dykes, Smyth.
Odds correct at 1230 GMT (30/11/23)
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