Arsenal have had a good week in their bid to finish in the top four

Premier League xG: Expected goals scorelines for Gameweek 9

By Sporting Life

Football

Tue October 11, 2022 · 2y ago

We round up the weekend's Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and some noteworthy data points.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Everton 1-2 Manchester United

Infogol xG: 0.62 - 1.59
Fairness rating: 97.75
Scorers: Iwobi (5'); Antony (15'), Ronaldo (44')

Manchester United got back to winning ways with a narrow win away at Everton, a game in which Cristiano Ronaldo scored the 700th club goal of his career.

The Toffees took the lead early thanks to a wonderful curling effort from Alex Iwobi, before Antony equalised soon after.

Ronaldo's landmark goal came just before half time, and proved to be the game winner.

The result was the 'fairest' of the weekend according to Infogol's metric, with United running out deserved winners.

It was only the second time this season that Erik ten Hag's side have allowed less than 1.0 xGA in a game this season.

Arsenal 3-2 Liverpool

Infogol xG: 2.70 - 0.73
Fairness rating: 81.02
Scorers: Martinelli (1'), Saka (45+5', 76' pen); Nunez (34'), Firmino (53')

We were treated to a fantastic game of football at the Emirates on Sunday, with Arsenal prevailing to return back to the summit of the Premier League table.

The Gunners scored early and late in the first half, sandwiching a Darwin Nunez equaliser, to lead at the break, before being pegged back early into the second half by a Roberto Firmino strike.

Gabriel Jesus was fouled for a penalty in the 76th minute which was dispatched by Bukayo Saka for his second of the game, and despite a late rally from Liverpool, the score stayed the same.

The result was an eighth win in nine this season, and Arsenal have now won the xG battle in all nine matches, showing a level of consistency that makes them a title contender.

At home in the Premier League, the Gunners have won eight in a row, generating more than 2.2 xGF in all eight, again highlighting the consistent levels they are operating at.

As for Liverpool, they have conceded 2.0+ xGA in back-to-back games, as their defensive issues remain prominent.

It's the first time that has happened since February 2021, the injury plagued covid season.

They are 10th in the table and now 14 behind Arsenal.

Crystal Palace 2-1 Leeds

Infogol xG: 1.73 - 1.01
Fairness rating: 95.17
Scorers: Edouard (24'), Eze (76'); Struijk (10')

Leeds started well and took an early lead at Crystal Palace, but an first half equaliser from the hosts only shot in 45 minutes turned the tide.

The second half saw the Eagles take a hold of the contest, and they got a deserved winner, with Eberechi Eze finishing a flowing move.

Patrick Vieira's side move three points clear of the drop zone after the victory, with this match being only the second time this season that Palace have won the xG battle.

Leeds are winless in five, and have had major issues away from home this season, losing three of four.

West Ham 3-1 Fulham

Infogol xG: 3.45 - 0.65
Fairness rating: 91.04
Scorers: Bowen (pen 29'), Scamacca (62'), Antonio (90+1'); Pereira (5')

West Ham came from behind to beat Fulham and register their second straight Premier League win.

The Cottagers went in front early, but it was one way traffic soon after, with the Hammers generating chance after chance, particularly in the second half.

David Moyes's side generated 3.45 xGF in the game, making it their best attacking display of the season to date.

In fact, it was the Hammers highest xGF total since the second to last game of the 20/21 season, where they beat West Brom 3-1, racking up 3.48 xGF.

Fulham have now conceded 3+ goals and 3+ xGA in their last two games, which is a major cause for concern for Marco Silva.

Chelsea 3-0 Wolves

Infogol xG: 2.08-0.89
Fairness rating: 77.04
Scorers: Havertz (45+3'), Pulisic (54'), Broja (90')

The feel good factor under Graham Potter continued at Chelsea as they beat Wolves 3-0 at Stamford Bridge.

The Blues followed up their midweek win over AC Milan in the Champions League with another clean sheet in front of their fans.

They allowed Italian champions AC to create a total of just 0.68 xG and Wolves created only slightly more at 0.83. At Palace last week, the Eagles created just 0.73 xG.

Potter has brought defensive solidity to Chelsea, who had allowed 1.23, 1.41, 1.89 and 2.13 xGA in Thomas Tuchel's final four Premier League games in charge.

At the other end, they created 2.03 xG from a total of 19 attempts, with just one big chance (0.35+ xG), which came for Kai Havertz early in the second half.

Manchester City 4-0 Southampton

Infogol xG: 2.24-0.15
Fairness rating: 92.83
Scorers: Cancelo (20'), Foden (32'), Mahrez (49'), Haaland (65')

Erling Haaland continued his incredible run, scoring his 20th goal (13.0 xG) in 12 Premier League and Champions League appearances this season.

The Norwegian now has 15 goals from 38 shots (9.1 xG) in the Premier League. He needs just another 18 from 29 games to break Mo Salah's 38-game season record from 2017/18.

Though Haaland had to wait for his solitary strike, it was one way traffic from the off at the Etihad, the hosts dominating with 65% of possession, creating 2.24 xG from a total of 21 attempts, and limiting the visitors to very little - Saints managed just 0.15 xG from five attempts.

Based on these chances, there was a 9.6% probability of the 4-0 scoreline as City, whose victory was capped off by Haaland's strike just after the hour mark, proved ruthless once more.

Pep Guardiola's side have now won 12 home games in a row and are unbeaten in 21 Premier League matches. It was another comfortable day at the office.

Newcastle 5-1 Brentford

Infogol xG: 2.30-1.22
Fairness rating: 76.45
Scorers: Guimaraes (21', 56'), Murphy (28') Toney (54', pen)

Newcastle showed their clinical streak under Eddie Howe as they scored five from chances equating to just 2.30 xG.

They had just a 1.9% chance of that scoreline based on their expected goals totals although the modest fairness rating shouldn't hide the fact that Brentford offered little going forward.

The Magpies created three big chances (0.35 xG+), scoring two of them via Jacob Murphy (0.44 xG) and Miguel Almiron (0.47 xG).

Bruno Guimaraes had a low probability double - one at 4% inside the box and his second from distance, also at 4%, to cap off a fine display from the Brazilian fan favourite.

It was the Bees' biggest defeat since promotion to the Premier League. They created just 0.42 non-penalty xG from just five chances, which must be a concern for Thomas Frank.

Bournemouth 2-1 Leicester

Infogol xG: 1.39-1.26
Fairness rating: 82.09
Scorers: Daka (10'), Billing (67'), Christie (71')

The pressure continues to pile on Brendan Rodgers after Bournemouth came from behind to secure 2-1 win over Leicester.

The Cherries are up to ninth in the Premier League table after extending their unbeaten run to five games under caretaker boss Gary O'Neil.

It was the first time in those five games that the Cherries won the xG battle due to giving up chances equating to 1.88, 1.53, 1.76, 1.18 and 1.26 xGA in that time.

The Foxes, meanwhile, have won just once in nine matches, scoring 15 from 9.7 xG, conceding 24 from 16.2 xGA, with a goal difference of -9 (-6.5 xGD).

Brighton 0-1 Tottenham

Infogol xG: 0.99-0.63
Fairness rating: 60.04
Scorers: Kane (22')

Tottenham closed the gap on rivals Arsenal to a point for 23 hours at least, with a hard-fought 1-0 victory at Brighton.

Roberto De Zerbi's side edged the xG battle, but could not follow up last week's 3-3 draw at Liverpool as they suffered a first defeat under their new boss.

Heung-min Son and Harry Kane linked up for the 43rd time in the Premier League - moving further ahead of Didier Drogba and Frank Lampard (36) as the best partnership - with the England striker heading home his eighth league goal of the campaign.

Conte's side have won six of nine matches this season, scoring 20 from 15.4 xG while conceding 10 from 10.9 xG - with a goal difference of 10 (+4.5 xGD)

Given the chance creation in this game, the Infogol model calculates a 12.5% chance of this away scoreline, with 0-0 (19.8%) the more likely scoreline ahead of 1-0 Brighton (19.6%).

Kane's goal was given a 0.31 xG rating, while Tottenham's other seven chances were all at 0.07 xG and under. The Seagulls, meanwhile, had the highest probability chance of the game through Kaoru Mitoma, whose second-half effort was given a 41% probability.

Lewis Dunk had a chance at 0.14 xG in the first half, while their other 12 chances were all at 0.07 xG and below.

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