Sporting Life
Erling Haaland and Phil Foden

Premier League xG: Expected goals scorelines for Gameweek 8

By Sporting Life
Football
Wed October 05, 2022 · 2y ago

We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.

What are Infogol fairness ratings?

  • We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
  • This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Manchester City 6-3 Manchester United

  • Infogol xG: 3.06-1.70
  • Fairness rating: 90.18
  • Scorers: Foden 8' 44', 73', Haaland 34', 37', 64'; Antony 56', Martial 84', 90+1 (pen)

The phenomenal Erling Haaland and Phil Foden both scored hat-tricks as Manchester City thrashed rivals Manchester United 6-3 at the Etihad Stadium.

Haaland’s treble, which came from 0.98 expected goals (xG), took his tally since joining the champions in the summer to 17 in just 11 appearances in all competitions. It was also the Norwegian's third hat-trick in successive home Premier League games.

Foden began the rout after just eight minutes and United were a distinct second best thereafter, the game settled at the break following a scintillating City display.

Antony pulled one back and Anthony Martial also claimed two consolation efforts, but City crushed their rivals.

The result, which took City back within a point of the top of the table, both underlined the champions’ brilliance and emphasised the size of the task still facing Erik ten Hag at United.

Leeds 0-0 Aston Villa

Leeds held on for a point after Luis Sinisterra was controversially sent off at Elland Road in an ill-tempered goalless draw against Aston Villa.

Colombia winger Sinisterra was dismissed early in the second half after failing to retreat from a free-kick and earning a second yellow card.

Villa created the better chances after Leeds went down to 10 men, recording a total of 2.04 xG, and went closest to a winner when Phillippe Coutinho’s volley hit a post and Ollie Watkins headed the rebound wide.

But the game was dominated by both side’s insistence on winning the physical battle, with referee Stuart Attwell booking six other players as he struggled to retain control.

Arsenal 3-1 Tottenham

Arsenal beat Tottenham in a thrilling north London derby, with goals from Thomas Partey, Gabriel Jesus and Granit Xhaka seeing them claim three points and bragging rights.

Harry Kane scored from the spot in the first half to level things up following Partey's curled opener, but after a sluggish start to the second half that saw Jesus restore the Gunners' lead, Spurs' task was made all the harder after Emerson Royal was shown a straight red for a challenge on Gabriel Martinelli.

Mikel Arteta's side continue to look incredibly impressive when playing at the Emirates, with this the 14th time in 23 home games since the start of last season in which they have racked up 2.0+ xGF.

Those kind of levels, coupled with the consistency, are what we see from the likes of Manchester City and Liverpool, highlighting just how strong the Gunners are in front of their own fans.

Not only did Arteta's side create plenty, but they limited a good Spurs attack to very little. Excluding Kane's penalty (0.80 xG), Antonio Conte's side generated just 0.79 xGF, so they can have no qualms about suffering their first defeat of the season.

Arsenal continue to hint that they are serious contenders for the title, and so far, it's hard to argue with that notion, with the Gunners having won the xG battle in all eight of their Premier League outings this season, including their sole defeat at Manchester United.

As for Spurs, the only games they have lost the xG battle in have come on the road. Conte's squad have now been second best at Chelsea, West Ham and Arsenal according to this metric - three of last season's top seven. Perhaps an issue there for them?

Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford

Bournemouth and Brentford shared a drab goalless draw on the south coast, where both sides struggled to carve out good chances.

There were plenty of penalty shouts throughout the game though none were given, as the attacking problems for Bournemouth continue.

The Cherries have failed to rack up chances equating to 1.0+ xGF in any of their eight Premier League games to date, averaging a paltry 0.53 xGF per game.

Brentford didn't fare that much better on Saturday, and remain winless on the road.

Based on the chances in the game, a goalless draw was the most likely outcome, being given a 16% chance of happening according to the Infogol model.

Crystal Palace 1-2 Chelsea

Conor Gallagher came back to haunt the team he was on loan at last season, scoring a stunning last-minute winner to provide new Chelsea boss Graham Potter with a first win in his first Premier League outing.

Odsonne Edouard opened the scoring for Palace before Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang got his first goal in blue, though this was a game that saw both teams struggle in attack.

In fact, that's a major area of concern for Potter as he takes over at Chelsea, with the Blues not having performed like a top four team in attack so far this term.

They have averaged just 1.49 xGF per game, breaching 2.0+ xGF on just one occasion, and needed a moment of genius to take three points here.

Palace have had a very tough schedule to start the season, facing four of last season's top five in their first seven, and things get 'easier' for them now, so we should see them pick up points in the coming weeks.

Fulham 1-4 Newcastle

  • Infogol xG: 0.62-3.93
  • Fairness rating: 95.74
  • Scorers: Reid 88'; Wilson 11', Almiron 33' & 57', Longstaff 43'

An early red card for Fulham's Nathaniel Chalobah proved a major blow for the hosts as Newcastle ran riot.

The Magpies were 3-0 in front at the break, adding a fourth soon after, and were only denied a clean sheet late on following a string of changes by Eddie Howe.

Newcastle racked up another huge xGF total just weeks after breaching 4.0+ xGF against Crystal Palace, but this time they were also clinical.

Fulham rolled over too easily, and while defeat was perhaps expected after the early red card, their misery was compounded by the fact that star man Aleksandr Mitrovic was taken off in the first half with a suspected injury.

Liverpool 3-3 Brighton

  • Infogol xG: 2.66-2.01
  • Fairness rating: 88.85
  • Scorers: Firmino 33' & 54', Webster (og) 63'; Trossard 4', 17' & 83'

Liverpool were held in a dramatic game at Anfield, with Leandro Trossard completing his hat-trick late on to level the match.

Brighton raced into a 2-0 lead before the Reds surged with three goals in 30 minutes before being pegged back, meaning Jurgen Klopp's side lose yet more ground on league leaders Arsenal, with Manchester City in action on Sunday.

The Reds continue to look particularly vulnerable in defence, shipping over 2.0 xGA at home, and the interesting thing here was that they only conceded high-probability chances, which is even more of a concern.

The Seagulls took just six shots in the game, but those shots had an average xG of 0.34 - so every chance Brighton created had a 34% likelihood of being converted.

Trossard was the man of the match, scoring three times from chances equating to 1.28 xG, with the probability of him scoring a hat-trick from his chances coming in at just 8.8%.

Overall, the game had just a 4% chance of finishing 3-3 based on the chances created at Anfield.

Southampton 1-2 Everton

Everton registered a rare away win to extend their unbeaten run to six games.

Southampton took the lead before a quick-fire double from the Toffees and despite late pressure, Frank Lampard's side hung on for all three points.

Everton only just won the xG battle and doing so has been a problem all season, winning said battle in just one of their previous seven.

That could mean that results have been fortunate over this spell and that results will take a turn for the worse, but on a more positive note their attacking process is on the up.

West Ham 2-0 Wolves

West Ham secured a much-needed win on Saturday evening, edging past Wolves in a game of low-probability chances.

Neither team generated an opportunity with an xG of more than 0.14, again emphasising the attacking issues the pair currently have.

Gianluca Scamacca scored a stunner (0.06 xG) to give the Hammers a lead before the break, and Jarred Bowen (0.07) secured the win early in the second half.

Both West Ham and Wolves continue a trend of being involved in games with few 'big chances' (0.35+ xG).

The Hammers' eight matches have seen them create just four non-pen big chances while conceding just seven - only Bournemouth (1) and Leicester (2) have created fewer.

Wolves have created two more through their opening stretch of games while allowing the same number, which is why both teams games have featured such few goals.

David Moyes' sides games have averaged just 1.75 goals per game, while Bruno Lage's sides matches have averaged just 1.5. All the trends point to yet more low-scoring matches involving the pair.

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