Premier League xG: Expected goals scorelines for Gameweek 11
We round up the Premier League action in a less traditional fashion, delivering the xG scoreline, an Infogol fairness rating and noteworthy data points.
What are Infogol fairness ratings?
- We attempt to rank each match result by comparing the actual result against the range of possible game outcomes that could have arisen based on the quantity and quality of chances created by each side in the game.
- This is scaled from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those occasions where the process most closely mirrors the real scoreline and lower scores indicate a match where the scoreline is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.
Aston Villa 0-2 Chelsea
- Infogol xG: 2.54 - 1.19
- Fairness rating: 32.16
Mason Mount's brace gave Graham Potter's Chelsea their fifth consecutive victory in all competitions.
Aston Villa were incredibly unlucky not to have been level, or even ahead, as they two sides went into the tunnel at half-time.
Mount had given them the lead as he capitalised on Tyrone Mings' mistake, while Raheem Sterling also struck the crossbar. However, the hosts had the better of the opportunities.
Kepa Arrizabalaga made a number of brilliant saves - the most notable being from close range to deny Danny Ings - meaning that Villa's 1.77 xG delivered no reward.
Mount's superbly hit second-half free-kick doubled the advantage, with the hosts unable to capitalise despite a final xG total of 2.54.
That led to a remarkably low 32.16 score on the Infogol fairness rating.
Liverpool 1-0 Manchester City
- Infogol xG: 2.28 - 1.11
- Fairness rating: 92.44
Mohamed Salah's second-half moment of brilliance saw Liverpool beat Manchester City 1-0 at Anfield.
The forward connected with Alisson's long pass forward to turn City defender Joao Cancelo, before breaking forward and chipping the ball over Ederson.
It was a fair outcome based on the expected goals totals, although it should have been a higher scoring game.
Erling Haaland failed to find the net but didn't have a quiet game, totalling 0.61 xG from his efforts on goal.
Leeds 0-1 Arsenal
- Infogol xG: 2.35 - 0.86
- Fairness rating: 40.86
Leeds should have gained at least a point but failed to capitalised on chances created in a 1-0 defeat to Arsenal.
Bukayo Saka netted the only goal of the game as he found the roof of the net from a tight angle just before half-time.
The game suffered a huge delay due to a power outage, meaning that it finished over half an hour later than the other 14:00 kick-offs.
Patrick Bamford missed a second-half penalty and thought he had earned another in the final minutes, only for VAR to step in and overturn the decision.
It was Leeds' highest xG total of the season so far.
Southampton 1-1 West Ham
- Infogol xG: 0.52 - 2.03
- Fairness rating: 67.69
Southampton ended their four-match losing run but could only manage a draw as their contest with West Ham finished 1-1.
Romain Perraud gave the Saints the lead, but it was the visitors who saw the better of the opportunities to strike.
Lucas Paquetá, Gianluca Scamacca and Tomas Soucek all had efforts from close range but couldn't convert, meaning the Hammers had 1.17 xG at the break.
David Moyes' side struck a deserved equaliser through captain Declan Rice in the 64th minute, as his effort from range found the back of the net.
Manchester United 0-0 Newcastle
- Infogol xG: 1.25 - 0.89
- Fairness rating: 91.28
It was a frustrating afternoon for Erik ten Hag's Manchester United as they drew 0-0 with Newcastle.
In a largely low event contest, the hosts had a couple of good chances to win the game late on but had to settle for a point.
It was the away side who enjoyed the better of the chances in the first-half.
Joelinton came closest to scoring, when he had efforts hit the crossbar and the post in one phase of play, and those efforts helped the visitors have the higher xG total at half-time (0.80 to 0.23).
Marcus Rashford had a great opportunity (0.44 xG) to win it in the 95th minute but failed to convert.
Leicester 0-0 Crystal Palace
- Infogol xG: 0.92 - 0.35
- Fairness rating: 83.03
James Maddison missed the chance to make a lasting impression on England boss Gareth Southgate as Leicester were held to a 0-0 bore draw by Crystal Palace.
Not many people, including the Three Lions boss, will remember this game for long, where some Leicester fans chanted for under-pressure boss Brendan Rodgers to be sacked.
The Foxes had the better of it but were unable to make a breakthrough and will view this a missed opportunity to get three points on the board as they remain in the bottom three after 10 games.
Palace were not at their best going forward and mustered just one shot on target and a total of 0.35 xG in a completely forgettable affair.
Fulham 2-2 Bournemouth
- Infogol xG: 1.92 - 1.61
- Fairness rating: 94.23
- Scorers: Diop 22', Mitrovic (pen) 52'; Solanke 2' Lerma 29'
Aleksandar Mitrovic scored a second-half equaliser as Fulham twice came from behind to secure a point in a 2-2 Premier League draw against Bournemouth.
The 28-year-old scored from the penalty spot – his first goal for Marco Silva’s side since September 3 – to take his tally for the season to seven (5.92 xG) and earn his side a deserved point.
Bournemouth had taken the lead through Dominic Solanke with the first attack of the match, before Fulham levelled matters through summer signing Issa Diop.
The Cherries then retook the lead in the first half through Jefferson Lerma as the hosts struggled to contain caretaker manager Gary O’Neil’s side’s counter-attacking threat.
However Fulham grew into the game and had all the possession and chances in the final 20 minutes but were unable to break through the Bournemouth defence for a third time.
Wolves 1-0 Nottingham Forest
- Infogol xG: 1.24 - 1.42
- Fairness rating: 65.22
- Scorers: Rúben Neves (pen) 56'
Jose Sa continued to shrug off a broken wrist to become Wolves’ penalty hero and plunge Nottingham Forest into deeper trouble.
The goalkeeper has been playing with the injury since the second game of the season but saved Brennan Johnson’s late spot kick, which are attributed an xG of 0.80 in the Premier League, to secure a 1-0 win.
It came after Ruben Neves’ controversial penalty helped lift managerless Wolves out of the bottom three.
The midfielder scored just the hosts’ fourth goal of the season to secure a basement battle win and breathe fresh life into their survival hopes.
Tottenham 2-0 Everton
- Infogol xG: 2.81 - 0.54
- Fairness rating: 96.33
- Scorers: Kane (pen) 59', Højbjerg 86'
Second-half goals by Harry Kane and Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg fired Tottenham to a 10th consecutive home win with a deserved 2-0 victory over Everton.
The result helped Spurs keep pace with Arsenal and Manchester City at the top of the Premier League but only occurred after the Toffees had made life tough for the hosts in the first half.
It was an error from Jordan Pickford which helped Tottenham break the deadlock when he fouled Kane, who made no mistake from the penalty spot to grab his 258th club goal on his 400th appearance for his boyhood side.
Hojbjerg wrapped up the points with a second late on to help third-placed Spurs move on to 23 from their opening 10 fixtures following a seventh win in N17 this season.