Premier League tips: Betting previews, score predictions & best bets for Wednesday's action
Mark your card for Wednesday's Premier League games with Tom Carnduff providing a best bet and score prediction for each clash.
Recommended bets
1pt Nampalys Mendy 80+ Passes Completed in Leicester v West Ham at 5/1
1pt Erik Lamela to score anytime in Tottenham v Norwich at 5/2
1pt James Tarkowski 4+ Tackles in Manchester United v Burnley at 19/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leicester v West Ham
Leicester have hit a real rough patch of form but they're still in a very strong position to finish in the Premier League top-four.
Brendan Rodgers' side have experienced two consecutive losses yet hold an eleven-point advantage over Manchester United in fifth.
David Moyes has done little to turn around the Hammers' fortunes in the short-term following the dismissal of Manuel Pellegrini; the man sacked after the Foxes won at the London Stadium in the reverse fixture over Christmas.
Both sides really need a win at this point. It's about league position and survival for West Ham while Leicester have looked a shadow of their former self in recent games and will be eager to bounce back against a side they will view as beatable.
Leicester are odds-on for victory which is reasonable enough considering the overall seasons so far. It may be worth going as far as Leicester -1 at 29/20 for an outright option but the player stats market provide intriguing value.
Particularly, a market that often provides good prices depending on the match is the player passes - an area that is becoming increasingly popular across bookmakers.
If Leicester have a good share of possession, as should be expected, then the likelihood is that there will be a high pass count too.
A good example of that is their recent 3-0 win away at Newcastle. The Foxes had 77% possession and that resulted in a huge 833 completed passes. For contrast, Newcastle managed just 244.
The good news for this game is that Leicester are coming up against a side who often see less of the possession across 90 minutes. West Ham's average stands at 48.4%, but recent away games at Crystal Palace (42%) and Southampton (43%).
In that defeat at Crystal Palace, we saw the home side post a total of 557 passes. An unusual spike for Roy Hodgson's side considering they are 17th for total passes in the Premier League this season.
Southampton also managed 474 despite being 15th in the above mentioned charts while Leicester made 523 in their away win over the Hammers in late December.
It's obviously a risk, as is any bet, as it relies on Leicester enjoying a lot more of the ball and willing to be patient in front of their own supporters to build up that passing statistic.
The Hammers could line-up to frustrate though and that could be a huge factor in the final outcome of the number of successful passes.
With Wilfred Ndidi out injured, Nampalys Mendy is set to line-up at the base of midfield and should see plenty of the ball. As a general rule, the defensive players will always see more passes completed than those in front as sides look to play out from the back.
That's why it's worth siding with Mendy to post a high number of passes in this contest and the 5/1 on Sky Bet for 80+ is a price worth consideration.
Score prediction: Leicester 2-0 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Nampalys Mendy 80+ Passes Completed in Leicester v West Ham at 5/1
Opta facts
- Leicester have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League meetings with West Ham (W5 D4), a 0-2 home loss in May 2018.
- Having won their first two Premier League away games against Leicester, West Ham have won just two of their subsequent 10 visits (D4 L4), with their only win at the King Power Stadium coming in May 2018 (2-0).
- Away from home, West Ham are winless in their last six evening kick-offs in the Premier League (7pm or later), drawing one, losing five and failing to score a single goal since beating Southampton 2-1 in December 2018.
- Leicester have lost their last two Premier League home games, more than they had in their previous 15 at King Power Stadium in the competition (W11 D3 L1). They’ve conceded six goals in those two defeats, as many as they’d shipped in their previous 13 at home.
- West Ham have won just three of their last nine Premier League games when going ahead (W3 D3 L3), dropping 15 points across those matches.
- Leicester have lost four of their last six Premier League games (W2) – only one fewer than they lost in their first 27 league games under Brendan Rodgers (W17 D5 L5).
- Leicester haven’t lost three consecutive Premier League games since the final three games of Claude Puel’s reign as manager – meanwhile, current manager Brendan Rodgers hasn’t lost three league games in a row since November 2014 with Liverpool.
- This will be West Ham manager David Moyes’ 50th Premier League away game against a side starting the day in the top four – the Scotsman has won just one of his 49 such games so far (D15 L33), with his Everton side beating third-placed Man City 2-1 in December 2010.
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has attempted just three shots in his last three Premier League appearances – his first shot of 2020 was a penalty that was saved by Burnley goalkeeper Nick Pope.
- West Ham striker Sébastien Haller scored with three of his first seven shots in the Premier League but has since found the net with just three of his subsequent 40 efforts at goal.
Tottenham v Norwich
It's now four league games without victory for Tottenham and the possibility of securing a spot in next season's Champions League is fading.
They are eight points behind rivals Chelsea who currently occupy fourth spot but they can return to winning ways as they welcome Norwich to North London.
The Canaries won the recent meeting between the two teams but the biggest loss for Spurs that day came with Harry Kane picking up an injury that has likely ruled him out for the remainder of the season.
Norwich's 2-0 success at Everton in late November remains their only away win of the campaign so far as the gap between themselves and safety continues to grow as a challenge as the weeks progress.
They did beat Bournemouth last time out but the 15/2 price on an away victory here shows the contrast between these two sides - even with that recent result.
You have to go into the -1 handicap to get Tottenham at an odds-against price yet their last two wins at home have come by single-goal margins. Norwich have also seen two of their three last away defeats come by the single goal.
Instead of looking at that outright result, although it's best to side with the hosts if you're after that prediction, there's value in the goalscorer market and going for Erik Lamela to net anytime.
With Kane out, Lucas Moura will occupy the strikers role and Son Heung-Min and Lamela are likely to provide the support. Given how Tottenham should be on the front foot here, it's more than possible that they will become wingers in a 4-3-3 formation which was deployed in their draw with Watford last time out.
That game may have finished 0-0, a result that Spurs could consider a positive given Watford's revival, but Lamela posed a real attacking threat throughout the game.
He had the most shots out of any player involved with six. They came from all areas of the final third; two were from outside the area, two from inside the six-yard box alongside one at the edge of the area and the other from the side of the six-yard box.
The Argentine winger could consider himself unlucky not to get onto the scoresheet but will target this game as one where he can strike.
A best price of 5/2 is available on a goal in 90 minutes, with a general price floating around the 12/5 mark. Both are worth taking.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-0 Norwich (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Erik Lamela to score anytime at 5/2
Opta facts
- Tottenham have won their last two Premier League home games against Norwich, 2-0 in September 2013 and 3-0 in December 2015.
- Following their 2-2 draw at Carrow Road in the reverse fixture, Norwich are looking to avoid defeat in both Premier League meetings with Spurs for only the second time in a Premier League season (also in 2012-13).
- After winning 20 consecutive Premier League home games against promoted sides between 2012-2018, Tottenham have failed to win two of their last three such matches – losing 1-3 against Wolves last season and drawing 1-1 with Sheffield United this term.
- Away from home, Norwich haven’t won any of their last 15 evening kick-offs (7pm or later) in the Premier League, drawing five and losing 10, since winning 2-1 at Ipswich in September 1994.
- Spurs have won their last nine Premier League home games played on a Wednesday, since a 0-1 loss against Leicester in January 2016.
- Norwich have failed to score in more different away games than any other Premier League side so far this season (7). Indeed, the Canaries have netted just five goals in their 11 away games in 2019-20, fewer than any other side.
- Spurs are one of two Premier League teams yet to score in 2020, along with Bournemouth. They haven’t failed to score in four consecutive league games since September 2006.
- Norwich’s Emiliano Buendía has created 68 chances in the Premier League this season, with only Kevin De Bruyne creating more (82). For the Canaries, Buendía’s tally of 68 is 45 more than any other player for the club (Todd Cantwell, 23).
- Since a Dele Alli goal against Brighton on Boxing Day, Spurs haven’t scored a Premier League goal in open play in their last six hours and 18 minutes of football, attempting 52 efforts in open play without success in that time.
- Norwich striker Teemu Pukki has scored 10 goals in 22 Premier League games this season– he is one of only three Finnish players to reach double figures in a Premier League season, along with Jonatan Johansson in 2000-01 (11) and Mikael Forssell in 2003-04 (17).
Manchester United v Burnley
Manchester United made it two defeats from their last three in the Premier League as they were beaten by champions-elect Liverpool last time out.
Virgil van Dijk's first-half header, combined with Mohamed Salah's last-gasp strike, were enough to wrap up another victory for Jurgen Klopp's men and that kept United five points behind in their quest for a top-four finish.
Despite that loss, United boss Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is looking to the positives.
"Of course you're never happy to lose a game," he told the media.
"The first goal was disappointing, to concede from a set piece. I then thought we weathered the storm really well and then put them under pressure, I thought they looked nervy.
"There were times we took the game to them and created chances, big chances. We then send everyone up to get the equaliser and they get the goal. They put you under pressure and you have to concentrate at the back. It was a much better performance than a year ago here."
Burnley may have secured victory over Leicester in their last game but this is a contest where they are likely to leave empty-handed.
Their away form, which has seen two wins from a possible eleven, leaves a lot to be desired and the hosts are justified in their 4/9 price for the win.
The visitors should be on the back foot for large parts of this contest but that doesn't mean it will be one way traffic throughout. They should have at least one big opportunity to score but they're most likely to be the busiest around their own area.
It should be a hectic evening for the Clarets centre-backs and there is good value in delving into the stats markets once again and looking at the tackles.
The name that stands out is James Tarkowski and there is a best price of 19/5 available on the Burnley man having four or more successful tackles in this contest.
It's not just based on the fact that he sits fourth in average tackles in this Burnley squad but the games in which the higher tallies come.
Tarkowski has posted four tackles in three games this season. Those were against Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea - three of the four teams in the current top-four.
There were two in their win over Leicester last time out while he also had three in their away contest at Arsenal in the early parts of the campaign.
The pattern seems to be that the Burnley defender commits more successful tackles when they come up against a team at the top-end of the division. It's hardly a surprise when written out, but it explains the value in the price on offer here.
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-1 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: James Tarkowski 4+ Tackles at 19/5
Opta facts
- Manchester United are looking to do the league double against Burnley for the first time since the 1975-76 campaign, following their 2-0 win at Turf Moor last month.
- Burnley are winless in their last 15 top-flight away games against Man Utd since winning 5- 2 in September 1962 (D7 L8). They’ve drawn their last three league visits to Old Trafford, throwing away a 2-goal lead in each of the last two seasons.
- Having won their first Premier League meeting with Manchester United, Burnley are winless in their subsequent 10 against the Red Devils in the competition (D4 L6).
- Manchester United have scored four goals in each of their last two home league games, picking up wins against Newcastle (4-1) and Norwich (4-0). They last scored 4+ goals in three consecutive home league games back in November 1997.
- Since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was made permanent manager in March 2019, Manchester United have lost as many Premier League games as they have won (11 each), collecting 42 points (W11 D9 L11) – the eight-highest tally in that time.
- Burnley have failed to score a single first half goal in any of their last 11 Premier League matches, with each of their last 10 league goals scored in the second half.
- Man Utd’s Anthony Martial has scored in all three of his Premier League games against Burnley, though all three have been at Turf Moor. Three different Man Utd players have scored in their first four PL appearances for the club against a specific side – Ruud van Nistelrooy (vs Spurs and Newcastle), Wayne Rooney (vs Newcastle) and Robin van Persie (vs Stoke).
- Since August 2017, Chris Wood has scored more Premier League goals than any other Burnley player (29) – Wood also netted in the Clarets’ 2-2 draw at Old Trafford last season.
- This will be Manchester United’s first game at Old Trafford in the Premier League under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to not feature the injured Marcus Rashford – since his Premier League debut, Rashford has scored more home league goals than any other Red Devils player (25).
- Burnley manager Sean Dyche has registered at least one win over 26 of the 29 opponents he has faced in the Premier League – one of the three teams he is yet to defeat is Manchester United (P9 W0 D4 L5).
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (21/01/20)