Premier League top scorer tips: Golden Boot Preview and best bets for 2023/24 season
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts e.w. Harry Kane to be top goalscorer at 14/1 (Betway - 1/4 odds 1,2,3)
2pts Dominic Solanke to score 15+ league goals at 5/1 (bet365)
1pt e.w. Ollie Watkins to be top goalscorer at 33/1 (General - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
0.75pt e.w. Dominic Solanke to be top goalscorer at 250/1 (BetVictor - 1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
Erling Haaland is as short at 8/11 in places to be the Premier League's top goalscorer. If you want to get involved in that, fine. It's a price that provides little interest to me though, particularly with the doubts in the back of my mind about some injury issues we saw at Dortmund.
We have to accept that his spot as the top goalscorer is likely if he stays fit throughout the course of the campaign. Some can challenge, while other selections will have to consider the each-way terms on offer.
Finishing in the top four will deliver returns. Using recent history, we can estimate how many goals are required for this:
- Over the past ten years, the average goal tally of the fourth-highest scorer has been 18.7.
- It's worth noting over the past three years, that average has dropped down to 17.7.
While this hasn't been the case in the most recent three seasons, we're targeting strikers who we believe can hit 20 goals. Achieve this and they have a great chance of featuring in the places.
Haaland may be the correct favourite, but the value lies elsewhere.
Premier League top goalscorer odds (via Sky Bet)
- Erling Haaland - 8/11
- Harry Kane - 7/1
- Mohamed Salah - 8/1
- Darwin Nunez - 16/1
- Marcus Rashford - 16/1
- Alexander Isak - 25/1
- Christopher Nkunku - 25/1
Odds correct at 1600 BST (06/08/23)
Count on Kane
While most of the attention was on Erling Haaland, Harry Kane enjoyed a brilliant 22/23 campaign of his own.
As ever, transfer talk continued throughout the summer with links to Bayern Munich and Manchester United, at the time of writing, failing to materialise.
The England captain scored 30 goals in 38 appearances last season in a Tottenham team that finished 8th in the Premier League table. His importance was further underlined by the fact he netted 43% of their total goals.
Prices of 8s, 9s and 10s are completely fine, but with a best price of 14/1 available, it's well worth backing KANE TO BE TOP GOALSCORER.
I refer back to the Haaland injury record that put me off backing him last season. He missed 16 of Dortmund's games in 21/22, with ten missed across four separate spells the year before.
He had a couple of minor problems last season that saw him absent for three, and with Kane featuring in all 38 outings, an extra six or seven games may well be the difference between the pair.
After all, this is a forward who has consistently delivered in the Premier League. Indeed, he's now the club's all-time highest goalscorer and that's hardly a surprise when we look at the numbers from the previous campaigns.
He's averaged 21 league goals a season across the last five but there was a huge total of 30 last season. A tally that would have surely won the accolade had Haaland not been involved.
Add in Ange Postecoglou's far more attack-minded approach - his Celtic side netted 114 in the Scottish Premiership last season - and it should be a campaign which Kane enjoys.
Watkins worth a look
Aston Villa saw a huge upturn in results following Unai Emery's appointment last season.
Inheriting a side that sat just outside the relegation zone, Emery guided them to Europe with a seventh-placed finish. A remarkable turnaround that saw a number of players flourish.
One of those was OLLIE WATKINS, making his 33/1 general price to be TOP GOALSCORER particularly appealing.
Having now been established as Villa's main striker, Watkins found the net 15 times last season but 13 of those goals came after Emery was brought in.
This is a team who should continue to improve. Youri Tielemans' arrival on a free adds further quality to the midfield, while Pau Torres should slot in as the starting left centre-back.
Alex Moreno has been a big positive since signing in January, delivering attacking output from left-back, and the addition of Moussa Diaby for a big fee only further strengthens an already impressive attack.
Having seen a strong Villa showing in the second-half of last season, improvement should continue given the transfer window. That is the case despite their involvement in the Europa Conference League.
Watkins has delivered when given the opportunity to play as a centre forward, averaging a goal every 2.67 games across his career when there compared with the goal every 3.02 rate elsewhere.
That may seem obvious and is useful for nothing more than illustrative purposes - that average would see around 14/15 goals scored if he kept going at it next season - but the improvement in his form is clear to see under Emery.
If Villa are to challenge among the European places once again, Watkins will surely have a campaign that at least sees him in the places in this market.
Bournemouth can defy expectations
One team who I believe can exceed pre-season expectations is Bournemouth, and the appointment of Andoni Iraola could well prove to be a very smart move.
They are the third-favourites for relegation, so I'm prepared for that to backfire, but if you forced me into making a bold prediction for England's top-flight this season, I'd have to side with the Cherries overachieving.
That's not to say they'll break into the European places but they may well have enough to get themselves into the top-half in the latter stages of the campaign. There looks to be more to this side than the outright odds suggest.
Iraola's appointment could also be a positive one for DOMINIC SOLANKE, and I fancy taking an each-way punt on the 250/1 available for him to be the TOP GOALSCORER.
Iraola's Rayo Vallecano ranked 9th out of 20 for xG last season, with their total of 479 shots the fifth-highest in the league. We can expect to see a more aggressive Bournemouth side during the upcoming campaign.
Rayo's 9.5 PPDA action was the third-lowest in La Liga, while Bournemouth's 15.7 was the third-highest. This is effectively a metric that analyses how much a team presses out of possession - the lower number the 'better' in this area.
This should now be a team aiming to be on the front foot and making life uncomfortable for the opposition.
Solanke had an alright 22/23, netting seven goals with a further seven assists, but he has shown in previous seasons that he can be a prolific goalscorer. It's also easy to forget that he's only 25 having been around for a while now.
The striker's 21/22 campaign delivered a huge total of 29 goals as Bournemouth were promoted from the Sky Bet Championship, with 15 coming alongside 11 assists the year prior.
There is potential in this new-look side that Solanke can challenge for a spot in the places with many bookmakers offering four places.
Back the milestones
As more markets continue to be added every single season, you can now back players to score a certain amount of goals with multiple bookmakers.
That makes things easier if there is some worry about Haaland's involvement, or if you are looking at an outsider but would prefer to play it safe with a lower total.
I've already made the argument above, but in case he falls short of what is required, I'm happy to back the 5/1 best price available on SOLANKE TO SCORE 15+ LEAGUE GOALS.
Comparing this price with others for the same milestone makes it appear slightly generous, provided Bournemouth deliver by steering well clear of the relegation battle and challenging for the top half.
Nottingham Forest's Taiwo Awoniyi is 5/2 for 15+, Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin is 7/4 and Crystal Palace forward Eberechi Eze is 10/3 - all of those are available in the top scorer market at 100s or more.
Provided he stays fit for the full campaign, Solanke would need a goal every 2.53 games average to hit the 15 marker - that decreases to 2.20 games if he features in 33 as he did last season.
This Bournemouth squad has all the potential to pass Rayo Vallecano's 45 goals last season, but even if they replicate that exact figure, Solanke contributing 33% of the Cherries' overall goal count is a realistic expectation in that scenario.
Odds correct at 1600 BST (06/08/23)
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