Premier League top four odds and probabilities: Arsenal to top Manchester United and Tottenham
Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea are all-but certain of finishing in the top four, but the final spot is far from sealed.
Wins for Arsenal and Tottenham in their last league fixtures means the north London duo occupy fourth and fifth in the Premier League table heading down the home stretch, with the Gunners three points clear of their bitter rivals with a game in hand.
Manchester United, who have played the same number of games as Spurs, are a further point behind. Another two points back and there's West Ham, while Wolves are just about hanging on to the Hammers' coattails.
It means we are set for a fierce battle to finish in the top four and top six; finishing seventh, and Conference League qualification, isn't quite as sought after.
Premier League Top 4 Finish 21/22 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/2 - Arsenal
- 9/4 - Tottenham
- 11/2 - Manchester United
- 50/1 - West Ham
- 500/1 - Wolves
Odds correct at 12:30 (22/03/22)
Away results to determine Arsenal's fate
- Played 28 | Pos 4th | GD +13 | Pts 54
- % chance top 4 finish: 66.8%
- % chance top 6 finish: 97.2%
- % chance finish 7th: 2.5%
Remaining fixtures: Palace (a), Brighton (h), Southampton (a), Chelsea (a), Man Utd (h), West Ham (a), Leeds (h), Newcastle (a), Everton (h). *Tottenham (a).
*Date for rearranged fixture TBC
The Gunners really are in pole position to qualify for the Champions League for the first time since 2016/17, with six wins in their last seven league games propelling them into heavy favouritism to get the job done.
Their underlying numbers this season (1.67 xGF, 1.31 xGA per game) have been very solid, with Mikel Arteta's side racking up the fourth-most expected points (xP) per game (1.63) in the league. Simply put, they deserve to be sitting in the final Champions League spot - but it is their home form that has powered them into position.
Only Liverpool (2.44) and Manchester City (2.34) have averaged more xP per game in front of their own fans, while their expected goal difference (xGD) per game is at its highest level since Arsene Wenger left the club.
So, it may be somewhat concerning that only four of their remaining 10 league games do come at the Emirates, with all of the Gunners' remaining away games looking tricky on paper, particularly at Chelsea, West Ham and Tottenham.
Away from home this season the Gunners have averaged 1.26 xGF and 1.68 xGA per game, while accumulating 1.22 xP per game - the eighth most.
That is a worry, but it is worth noting that they have been hammered both on result and xG at City and Liverpool. Removing those two matches from the sample leaves a process of 1.45 xGF and 1.29 xGA per game, which suggests that they are decent travellers when facing 'the rest'.
North London derby key to Spurs hopes
- Played 29 | Pos 5th | GD +11 | Pts 51
- % chance top 4 finish: 24.3%
- % chance top 6 finish: 93.3%
- % chance finish 7th: 6.2%
Remaining fixtures: Newcastle (h), Aston Villa (a), Brighton (h), Brentford (a), Leicester (h), Liverpool (a), Burnley (h), Norwich (a). *Arsenal (h).
*Date for rearranged fixture TBC
Tottenham will relish hunting down their north London rivals, particularly as their run-in looks more favourable.
Five of their last nine are at home, and that is where Spurs have done their best work since Antonio Conte took charge.
Only Liverpool (3.37) and Man City (2.71) have racked up more xGF per home game than Tottenham have managed under Conte, and that puts them in good stead for welcoming five beatable opponents - I'm adding Arsenal in that list.
Ultimately, that north London derby at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium could prove decisive, especially with two of their four remaining away games coming against two teams in the current bottom six.
Based on Infogol's calculations if Spurs were to win that head-to-head game, their chances of securing Champions League football would almost double from the current 24.3% to 45.0%.
They would still be marginal second favourites for the top four even with the victory because of Arsenal's game in hand, but it really is a huge game looking that the percentages.
The difference in Spurs' chances of finishing in the Champions League spaces with a draw (19.0%) in the North London derby compared to a win (45.0%) stands at 26% - that is a huge swing.
A loss in that clash all but wipes out their chances, with defeat leaving them an 8.0% chance of securing a top four finish.
As for Arsenal, avoid defeat and their chances increase from the current 66.8% to 71% (draw) and 86% (win). There really is a lot at stake when these two meet.
If Spurs were to win that contest, I would fancy them to get the job done and finish fourth due to their superior away process, with Tottenham having averaged 2.08 xGF and 1.26 xGA per away game since Conte's arrival.
United not improving quickly enough
- Played 29 | Pos 6th | GD +8 | Pts 50
- % chance top 4 finish: 8.3%
- % chance top 6 finish: 81.0%
- % chance finish 7th: 16.1%
Remaining fixtures: Leicester (h), Everton (a), Norwich (h), Liverpool (a), Arsenal (a), Brentford (h), Brighton (a), Chelsea (h), Palace (a).
It was a miserable March for Manchester United.
They played just three games in the month, losing heavily to Manchester City, riding Ronaldo to beat Tottenham and getting knocked out of the Champions League in front of their own fans by Atletico Madrid.
They haven't been good enough to suggest that they can finish the season strongly and secure Champions League football.
It is remarkable how a side that finished second and averaged 1.73 xGF and 1.25 xGA per game last season have fallen so far, now averaging 1.67 xGF and 1.57 xGA per game over the 2021/22 campaign.
That's a swing of -0.38 xGD per game. So this season, they have been on average one 'big chance' per game worst than last (Infogol credits a big chance as having an xG value of 0.35 or greater).
Under Ralf Rangnick, United have returned to the level of last season, posting a +0.44 xGD per game, but that process is still a long way behind their top four rivals during the timeframe of his appointment.
Both Spurs (+0.85) and Arsenal (+0.92) have been on average twice as good as United on a game-to-game basis since Rangnick took charge, which explains why the pair have overtaken them.
United's remaining schedule doesn't look overly appealing either.
If they are to finish in the top four, they would need to improve their underlying process to at least the level of Arsenal, and also hope the two teams above them falter. It looks unlikely, hence the 8.3% chance the Infogol model gives them.
From a betting standpoint, there is zero value in backing United for a top-four finish at a general 11/2 (15.4%), with the model suggesting they should be double the price (11/1).
West Ham's Europa League journey could be the thing that secures a top-six finish for United, but even that isn't a certainty.
Premier League Top 6 Finish 21/22 odds (via Sky Bet)
- 1/66 - Arsenal
- 1/20 - Tottenham
- 1/8 - Manchester United
- 11/4 - West Ham
- 16/1 - Wolves
Odds correct at 12:30 (22/03/22)
Hammers fading domestically
- Played 30 | Pos 7th | GD +10 | Pts 48
- % chance top 4 finish: 0.7%
- % chance top 6 finish: 27.0%
- % chance finish 7th: 58.9%
Remaining fixtures: Everton (h), Brentford (a), Burnley (h), Chelsea (a), Arsenal (h), Norwich (a), Man City (h), Brighton (a).
Will the Europa League distract West Ham from securing another Premier League top-six finish?
More than likely the answer to that is yes.
And rightly so, who knows when the next time West Ham will be in the quarter-finals of a major European competition?
Also, while it is still unlikely at this stage given they would have to get past a Barcelona team who look formidable right now, if the were to win the Europa League then all this talk of top four and top six would be rendered useless, as the Hammers would go straight into pot 1 of the 22/23 CHAMPIONS LEAGUE draw.
That is some incentive to prioritise that competition, and recent league results have left them with a near impossible task to finish fourth - likely having to win all of their remaining eight league games - and with a slim chance of finishing in the top six (27.0%).
Their underlying process this season can be split into two halves of 15 league games, before the end of the Europa League group stage, and after it.
The data doesn't make for pleasant reading, and perhaps shows the impact that having more games than usual is having on a small squad.
David Moyes' side have gone from posting an xGD per game of +0.21 throughout the first half of their league season, to averaging -0.09 xGD per game through the second half, with their xP per game dropping by 0.18.
That may not sound like a lot, but over the course of full season it would add up to 6.8 xP.
To have any chance of finishing in the top six - top four looks beyond their reach now - the Hammers will at least have to get back to their early season levels, maybe even surpass those levels, and given their continued involvement in the UEL, that looks unlikely.
It may end up being seventh for West Ham, which is still a positive result, and the Europa Conference League, unless they were to win the Europa League.
Overperforming Wolves never sustainable
- Played 30 | Pos 8th | GD +5 | Pts 46
- % chance top 4 finish: 0.0%
- % chance top 6 finish: 1.1%
- % chance finish 7th: 11.8%
Remaining fixtures: Aston Villa (h), Newcastle (a), Man City (h), Burnley (a), Brighton (h), Chelsea (a), Norwich (h), Liverpool (a).
Wolves' race seems to be run when it comes to top four and top six.
Their 3-2 defeat against Leeds last time out was a damaging one for their confidence and their chances, blowing a 2-0 lead and a commanding position.
As a result, Infogol now calculates they have no chance of finishing fourth this season, and a measly 1.1% chance of finishing in the top six.
Seventh looks the best they can hope for now, and a place in the Europa Conference League, but even that is set to be an uphill struggle.
Not only do Bruno Lage's side face all of the current top three in their final eight games, but their underlying process just hasn't been at the level all season long to suggest they could sustain a challenge for Europe. They have massively overperformed, currently sitting in a false position.
Based on xP per game Wolves have been the 12th best team in the league. The Old Gold rank as the fourth worst attacking team in the top flight this term (1.17 xGF per game) and only the 10th best defensive team (1.45 xGA per game).
Brentford have put up better underlying numbers than Wolves in 21/22.
A monstrous overperformance in defence is the main reason for their lofty league position, conceding just 26 goals from chances equating 43.5 xGA - conceding over 17 goals fewer than would have been expected based on the quality of opportunity they have faced.
We calculate just a 0.1% chance of them conceding exactly 26 goals from the chances faced and 0.3% chance of them conceding exactly 60 goals - with a 1.0% chance they would have let in 60 or more. This just shows how fortunate they have been up to now.
Regression will occur - and it has already to some extent with Wolves conceding eight goals in their last six games - unless they improve their defensive process, but even then, we give them just an 11.8% chance of finishing in seventh spot.
It looks likely that Wolves will be cheering on West Ham (likely to finish seventh) to win the Europa League, which would see their UECL spot drop to the Old Gold in eighth.