Free Premier League football betting tips

15:57 · SUN October 29, 2017

David John previews Sunday's Premier League games and sees a win for Leicester under new boss Claude Puel.

Saturday

Manchester United v Tottenham (1230BST, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)

Let’s face it, the vast majority of us are still to quite make up our minds as to whether Tottenham really have got what it takes over the long haul to win the Premier League but the signs a quarter of the way through the campaign have been positive.

Last week’s clash with Liverpool at Wembley was billed as another potential watershed moment and Mauricio Pochettino’s side could not have been more emphatic as they smashed up the Reds and their hapless back four.

A different test awaits now at Old Trafford as Jose Mourinho will set out with every intention of not losing the game whilst harbouring hopes he might be able to nick a winning goal via one lapse at the back from the visitors.

The mental fortitude of Spurs will also be put to the test having fluffed a 2-0 advantage at home to West Ham on Wednesday in the Carabao Cup, seemingly taking their foot off the gas when in control and paying the price by suffering a second-half mugging.

Pochettino stood up and took the blame and I am happy to file it in the 'one-off' category as the general level of their performance across all competitions has been pretty much one of ruthless intensity.

Harry Kane has been the talisman and is well on the way to becoming the best player on the planet currently but he came off a little gingerly in the closing stages of the Liverpool clash and was not involved at all against West Ham.

The latter issue does not concern me but Pochettino has put a little smokescreen out there that he is not 100% go for this fixture, good news for United as they expect to have first choice central defensive pair Phil Jones and Eric Bailly fit for action to cope with Kane or Fernando Llorente.

United would accept the accusation of a sloppy effort in defeat at Huddersfield last week but they will be highly unlikely to take their eye off the ball in similar manner this time around.

Mourinho has already elicited the right sort of reaction in a comfortable midweek league cup success at Swansea and I simply don’t see him veering too far away from the suffocating tactics he used to pinch a point recently at Liverpool.

The onus at home will be on his side to be a bit more adventurous but Romelu Lukaku is in the midst of his first little barren spell with no goals in four outings and I have a feeling he won’t get much change out of this backline.

Spurs have been exceptional on the road and have already gone toe-to-toe with some success against Real Madrid so I fancy them to edge this encounter – under 1.5 total goals is a solid play but I will go with a riskier option at 9/1 and a 1-0 scoreline in favour of the Londoners.

Prediction: Manchester United 0-1 Tottenham - Sky Bet odds: 17/2

Arsenal v Swansea (1500)

Craig Shakespeare and Ronald Koeman have both felt the merciless chop of the Premier League managerial axe recently and Swansea’s Paul Clement might not be far behind if unable to get his team out of a rut.

It is more of a trench than a rut too, judged on their feeble effort in midweek after they rolled over in the Carabao Cup with an insipid home display against a Manchester United side who did not need to engage anything higher than second gear.

I don’t buy into the notion that the players had one eye on this fixture - obviously more important in the grand scheme of things - as the majority won’t be anywhere near the first XI at the Emirates Stadium.

It all comes down to Clement’s motivational skills and they add up to a big heap of nothing currently, so disappointing from a clever tactician with experience at some of the biggest clubs in Europe.

Clement felt it was a better performance than of late during a spell that has seen them lose four of their last five but he must have been watching a different game to me and the 14/1 available for them to emerge from the doldrums with three points in north London is miserly.

Arsene Wenger’s reserve outfit had just about enough in the tank to scramble past Norwich in midweek and the Frenchman will welcome back his big guns for the serious business of climbing the Premier League standings.

They did take a bit of time to get rolling against Everton last week after falling behind but if they go about Swansea with the same verve and intent, they should have little trouble completing the task as expectations will be high that their goal difference will get a decent boost as well.

We have seen some head-scratching results lately but I doubt any of them would trump a Swansea victory here as Clement’s message is simply not getting through to a group of players whose confidence is ebbing away week on week.

The accusation consistently levelled at the Gunners is their ability to make hard work of things and play down to the level of a lesser opponent but a fast start here could see the Swans quickly sunk without trace so I am keen to get with the hosts to be leading after 15 minutes.

Prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Swansea - Sky Bet odds: 6/1

Arsenal can make a quick start against Swansea

Crystal Palace v West Ham (1500)

The emotional levels for these two could not be more different but therein lies the issue when it comes to trying to asses who will win with the pair up one week and down the next like a couple of hormonal teenagers.

The Hammers somehow dragged themselves back from the brink when 2-0 down to beat Spurs in the Carabao Cup but Crystal Palace capitulated against the Championship’s Bristol City with Roy Hodgson forced into a grovelling apology for his side’s lack of stomach at Ashton Gate.

West Ham tapped into reserves at Wembley so far unseen this season following an abject effort at home to Brighton while Palace have shown signs of life under the former England supremo but that midweek 4-1 drubbing potentially represents a damaging step backwards.

Both sides made significant personnel changes to muddy the waters further so will this be as simple as West Ham keeping up the momentum and taking advantage of an Eagles side still very much on a slippery slope?

If only it was that easy. West Ham have been supported in the betting but the hosts go into the fixture as favourites and are not without hope of justifying the tag.

While Hodgson admitted giving some fringe players a chance on Tuesday backfired badly, he will be all guns blazing here with Wilfrid Zaha, Andros Townsend and Yohan Cabaye all welcomed back along with Scott Dann and Mamadou Sakho to shore up the centre of defence.

I still need some convincing when it comes to the visitors, and Bilic’s situation remains very much on a match-by-match basis, so they are not guaranteed to do something they have failed to manage since the middle of January and that is win back-to-back fixtures.

Palace would get my vote to win a close, hard-fought affair but at less than 2/1 they are just not worth the temptation with so many questions still to answer.

Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-0 West Ham - Sky Bet odds: 13/2

Liverpool v Huddersfield (1500)

The Terriers are already ahead of the curve when it comes to their daunting back-to-back schedule against two north-west giants so are now playing with house money at Anfield.

They look a much better 14/1 chance too than Swansea in the above game if your thing is rolling the dice on a big upset with David Wagner’s side rightly brimming with all the confidence you would expect after toppling Manchester United at the John Smith’s Stadium.

A respectful Jose Mourinho admitted the better team won on the day as Huddersfield showed greater determination all around the pitch and took full advantage by turning it into goals when they forced a previously unbeaten outfit into an error.

The trick is to try to repeat it and who is to say they won’t be able to convert one or even two chances if this Liverpool defence continues to get in its own way as it tips its hat and waves the opposition through in the final third.

It was Keystone Cops stuff against Tottenham at Wembley that was ruthlessly punished by Harry Kane and company so Jurgen Klopp must be running short of combinations at the back in a bid to reverse the process.

There is some glimmer of hope in so much as they did manage consecutive clean sheets against a cautious Manchester United and mediocre Maribor while, with the best will in the world, Huddersfield can’t call on the potency going forward possessed by Tottenham.

Liverpool have managed to keep the visitors out in three of their six home games this season but after two years at the helm, Klopp seems no closer to realising a long-term solution bar a few fleeting occasions that has usually involved Simon Mignolet being at his best as the last line of defence.

I feel like taking a calculated risk however, so suggest going with Liverpool to keep a clean sheet although it will mean having to sit and sweat for 95-odd minutes to see if they can actually make it happen.

The visitors have still not managed to find the target on the road beyond the season-opening 3-0 romp at Crystal Palace and don’t offer enough in the final third to pose a real threat - even up against this motley crew.

Prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Huddersfield - Sky Bet odds: 5/1

Watford v Stoke (1500)

The Hornets were outstanding last week in their 4-2 defeat at Chelsea and a repeat of anywhere near that level of display will see them home and hosed at Vicarage Road against a seriously underwhelming Stoke.

There were times as Watford swaggered forward in west London when they made the Premier League champions look genuinely terrified but there always seems to be a twist in all the best fairytales as the hosts managed to scramble home by a final scoreline that rather flattered them.

Marco Silva felt the result was 'unfair' but perhaps he will have learnt a valuable lesson in terms of punishing a rival when clearly on top - a third goal for them during that dazzling spell just after half-time would have surely been enough to break the resolve of the hosts.

It took until Watford’s most recent game to register a victory at home but belief will be off the charts among the faithful they can immediately follow up with them quoted at a fraction of odds-against for all three points.

It is seemingly set up then for the sucker-punch with the Potters enduring a rotten spell of five defeats in their last six in all competitions and just two away victories stretching back to mid-December last season.

They did manage to claim all three points in this fixture at the end of November 2016 so perhaps there is some cause for a little optimism but an embattled Mark Hughes seems to be running out of excuses for a team that has slumped horribly since an early win over Arsenal and a draw with Manchester United.

Much like Paul Clement at Swansea, Hughes seems determined to plug away until their fortunes change rather than grab hold of the situation and shape their own destiny.

I would start by giving veteran Peter Crouch an opportunity from the opening whistle in a bid to cause a nuisance in the opposition box as it seems only the lanky striker and Mame Biram Diouf seem capable at the moment of providing the goals to change the course of a game.

Hughes is lucky to have some pretty patient owners but his situation could be the subject of a serious review on Saturday evening as it is tough to see how his team will slow down the momentum of the hosts with a motivated Richarlison fancied to weigh in after a couple of stunning misses at the Bridge.

Prediction: Watford 2-1 Stoke - Sky Bet odds: 15/2

West Brom v Manchester City (1500)

Before a ball was kicked, I wondered how long it would be before the Baggies fans started to get a bit edgy and an eight-match stretch without victory seems to be a potential tipping point for Tony Pulis.

They look increasingly devoid of ideas after the 1-0 loss at Southampton last weekend and Pulis’ functional football is acceptable when they are chiselling out results but it becomes painful viewing with little in return when it comes to putting points on the board.

They have managed just two Premier League victories since March (Bournemouth and Burnley) and some ambitious owners at The Hawthorns might not have too much more patience before deciding to pull the plug.

They have only managed a three-goal haul once this season (at Accrington in the league cup) and a potential spanking from the rampant league leaders could leave Pulis teetering on the brink.

The pair met last month in the cup and a Leroy Sane brace was enough to see City remain on course for the first piece of domestic silverware.

I like Pep Guardiola a lot but his whingeing about the football while they took what seemed until the middle of the night to finally see off Wolves in midweek is a bit on the feeble side and nothing more than a soundbite for the media to have a giggle over.

More importantly, he will restore his first-choice midfield to the ranks spearheaded by Kevin De Bruyne and I doubt whether Pulis will have enough in the locker to keep them at bay even if he decides his best plan of action will be to clog up the centre of the park.

That recent encounter between the pair ended 2-1 and I can certainly picture a scenario where that advantage is extended with the heat turned up on the home manager as a result.

Prediction: West Brom 0-3 Manchester City - Sky Bet odds: 13/2

Bournemouth v Chelsea (1730, BT Sport 1)

Cherries boss Eddie Howe was probably spot on in his assumption a month ago they were not far away from a turnaround in fortune and despite losing 1-0 at Wembley to Spurs, that lively performance has been the building block for back-to back victories.

A 3-1 Carabao Cup triumph over Middlesbrough in midweek was another nice little boost to confidence and saw striker Callum Wilson pleasingly back among the goals and now a best price of 3/1 to find the target once more as he attempts to get his place back on a regular basis.

As mentioned, they gave Tottenham one or two concerns and there is no reason why that won’t be the case once more against the champions, who certainly breathed a sigh of relief last weekend to get three points at home against Watford.

It is probably fair to say Bournemouth are not quite at the level of the Hornets currently but do have some pace up front to cause trouble and are certainly moving in the right direction as they bid to bring a halt to a three-match slump against this rival.

Chelsea certainly rode their luck against Watford at times and there were definitely spells just after half-time when it looked as if a fourth game without a victory was a distinct possibility.

This is certainly not Antonio Conte’s outfit at their dominant best but his players are showing good commitment to the cause and his second XI dug in well to beat Everton in midweek in a competition that still remains pretty low on the list of priorities for the top English sides.

If pushed, I would probably opt for both teams to score but will leave it alone at odds-on with the visitors once again showing their resilience to pick up all three points.

Prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Chelsea - Sky Bet odds: 7/1

Recommended bets:

1pt Tottenham to beat Manchester United 1-0 at 10/1

1pt Arsenal to be leading after 15 minutes v Swansea at 11/4

2pts Liverpool to keep a clean sheet v Huddersfield at 10/11

1pt Richarlison to score anytime v Stoke at 39/19

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Posted at 0745 BST on 27/10/17.

Sunday

Brighton v Southampton (1330, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)

The Amex Stadium stages ‘ElClasicoast’ and although this won’t have quite the same intensity for the visitors as a trip to Portsmouth, it should be a decent spectacle with both teams seemingly in reasonable nick.

The Seagulls ran rings around West Ham last weekend and have had extra time to prepare following that Friday outing – not that manager Chris Hughton needs it as the way he has set out his newly-promoted outfit has now impressed on a number of occasions.

They are never going to be the most prolific but opposition will have to work hard to get through them and already Lewis Dunk and Shane Duffy have proven a formidable partnership in the heart of defence.

There is no doubt they were given a huge helping hand by a desperate Hammers effort but the key will be how they cope over an extended period at home – they are unbeaten there since the opening day and only a last-gasp penalty against Everton thwarted their quest for another three points.

I always feel this is the time for a new team in the top flight to thrive – rivals tend to get a better handle on how they operate post-Christmas and I can see the hosts getting some sort of result here as well.

It has been slow progress for Southampton as their new boss Mauricio Pellegrino settles in but he is hopeful now that they will start to flourish on a more consistent basis after narrowly beating West Brom.

There was not a great deal between the pair at a storm-battered St Mary’s last weekend and conditions very much seemed to be the winner until Sofiane Boufal’s mazy late dribble from his own half produced separation.

I am sure Pellegrino would be happy to rely on more rudimentary routes to goal with passes and crosses into the box and striker Manolo Gabbiadiani’s assessment during the week that “they are in good shape” suggests this is a team heading in a positive direction.

Bookmakers probably expect Southampton’s greater nous at this level will be the difference and make them favourites but a closely-fought stalemate appeals to me with a dart on no goalscorer worth a second glance.

Prediction: Brighton 0-0 Southampton - Sky Bet odds: 6/1

New Leicester boss Claude Puel

Leicester v Everton (1600, Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event)

The last time Leicester made a seemingly unpopular appointment they went on to win the Premier League so perhaps Claude Puel deserves a chance to prove himself despite already being written off in some quarters.

His new team are a best price of 6/5 to make a winning start under the Frenchman and he seems to have his head screwed on following a first training session on Thursday.

He looks set keep assistant Michael Appleton to help him get to know the players while his plan in the short term is that there will be no radical deviations from how the players go about their business.

Puel actually starts from a reasonable position too with the Foxes unbeaten in four games, winning their last two, which includes beating a dangerous Leeds side in the Carabao Cup in midweek.

This is the latest chapter in a tumultuous spell in the club’s history stretching back to dodging relegation under Nigel Pearson, subsequent title glory, Ranieri’s removal and now the exit of Craig Shakespeare.

I don’t think the King Power will lack for atmosphere with the fans seemingly taking it all in their stride so I fully expect the faithful to get behind a team in reasonable shape to justify their favourite’s tag against the Toffees.

The latter are still in the process of finding a new gaffer after giving Ronald Koeman the boot – the substance of their 5-2 thrashing at home to Arsenal left the Dutchman with no cards left to play.

They showed a little more spirit against Chelsea’s reserves on Wednesday in the League Cup but still went out and are a team in need of a rocket up the rear end which they won’t get from interim manager David Unsworth.

It’s all a bit rudderless and the solution is someone to get hold of all those expensive summer arrivals with a proper plan to deploy them – plus add some semblance of a goal threat to replace Romelu Lukaku.

All easier said than done currently but they can still a pose a threat so the best bet would be both teams to score with the home team coming out on top to give Puel an ideal start in the East Midlands.

Prediction: Leicester 2-1 Everton - Sky Bet odds: 15/2