Our Andy Schooler has 18/5 and 12/1 tips for Chelsea v Middlesbrough on Monday night.
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Chelsea v Middlesbrough (2000 BST, Sky Sports 1)
The endgame is approaching for both of these sides.
Chelsea know two wins this week (they also play at West Brom on Friday) will see them crowned champions.
Middlesbrough, on the other hand, will be relegated if they fail to avoid defeat in this one – and in all likelihood will simply be delaying the inevitable even if they do.
So we’ve two sides desperate for a result but one clearly considerably better than the other.
The bookies will clearly take no chances with the Blues, who are around the 2/11 mark for the win they seek, but the short prices in the win-draw-win market have a knock-on effect to some of the others which offer us better hope of grabbing a tasty price.
The market I like the look of is the half time/full time one.
For all of Boro’s struggles, they’ve taken few hammerings this season.
On the road they’ve won one, drawn seven and lost nine but five of those nine have been by just a single goal. Against the better sides, they’ve drawn at Manchester City and Arsenal, while trips to both Tottenham and Manchester United resulted in only single-goal defeats.
With Steve Agnew’s men being the lowest scorers in the division, it’s hard to see that they will go about trying to get the win they so badly require by going toe to toe with a free-scoring home team. Instead they will look to keep the Blues as quiet as they can using their defensive strength, at the heart of which has been the outstanding Ben Gibson, and trying to grab something on the break or from a set-piece.
I have serious doubts as to whether such tactics will work over the full course of the game but I do feel there’s a decent chance they can hold out for 45 minutes.
Boro have gone in level at the break in 10 of their 17 away games thus far, including at Old Trafford, White Hart Lane and the Emirates (in fact it was 0-0 at half time in all three of those).
The stats are less convincing from a Chelsea perspective but Boro’s fellow strugglers Swansea managed to go in level at half time at the Bridge a couple of months back, while Southampton should have done so too in the last game there, only to concede from a corner in first-half injury time.
Draw/Chelsea in the HT/FT market is on offer at 18/5 which looks worth a nibble and is actually slightly bigger than a goalless first half at 10/3.
A longer shot I fancy comes in the man of the match market – although injury news could scupper the bet.
Much has been spoken and written about N’Golo Kante this season and this another fine opportunity for him to catch the eye.
If the game does unfold as I’ve suggested above, it may be that the market front-runners, Diego Costa and Eden Hazard, aren’t banging in the goals quite as easily the odds suggest they might.
Chelsea’s attacking pair are both offered at just 7/2 whereas Kante is available at 12/1.
He is a doubt with a thigh problem but if he doesn’t play you will get your money back so no problem there.
If he does start, there’s every chance that he’s very much the centre of attention with many predicting he’ll be named as the Football Writers’ Association Footballer of the Year on the morning of the game, putting him very much back in the media spotlight.
His energetic, box-to-box game has already seen him crowned PFA Player of the Year and for me it would be no surprise to see him pulling the strings in this one, at the same time earning plenty of attention from the Sky Sports commentary team who will choose the winner.
Prediction: Chelsea 2-0 Middlesbrough
Posted at 2000 BST on 07/05/17.