David John fancies under-fire Arsenal to claim a victory at struggling Middlesbrough on Monday night.
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Middlesbrough v Arsenal (2000 BST, Sky Sports 1)
By David John
Arsene Wenger must air his dirty laundry once again on a national stage with the Gunners wrapping up the Easter weekend live on Sky one week removed from perhaps the nadir of an already pretty awful season.
An abject performance in the 3-0 defeat at Crystal Palace suggests the players have just about run up the white flag under the Frenchman with Theo Walcott admitting Palace “wanted it more”.
Naughty boy Walcott had his wrist slapped later in the week for his comments but Wenger’s hold on this group is seemingly slipping by the day as contract wrangles continue with star players and even the most loyal fans now turn their backs on him as well.
The whole sorry state of affairs has become more than just one of England’s top teams looking woefully out of form and any motivation that remains could be potentially sucked from them a little further if other results go against them and they occupy seventh spot, 10 points adrift of the top four, by kick-off.
The walls may be crumbling around Wenger but he still believes his players have the character to clamber back into the Champions League places, however their fortitude will be tested in the north east by a team fighting for their own future in the top flight.
Arsenal are rather uneasy odds-on favourites but there remains that tantalising prospect they put all other issues to one side for a fleeting moment and turn it on by scoring four or five.
Team-mates continue to look for the mercurial Alexis Sanchez to be the catalyst and in the Chilean’s defence, he still seems keen to fight for the cause with some industrious displays of late – although his frustrations with those around him are increasingly apparent.
Whether he wants to remain at the Emirates for a reported £300k per week or moves on, Sanchez must show he still has a love for the game and if it starts here, I guarantee Walcott, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and co will follow.
Arsenal winning this game must begin with something more fundamental though and keeping a clean sheet is a solid foundation.
The potential return of Petr Cech in goal and Laurent Koscielny will be a big boost to that end bearing in mind they face the lowest scorers in the division.
Temporary Boro boss Steve Agnew has been thrust into the role and now tried various combinations up front in a bid to address an issue that has seen them score just once at home in their last four Premier League games.
Gaston Ramirez adds some creative input with Adama Traore on his comeback from an ankle issue but the pair blow hot and cold while perming any two from Alvaro Negredo, Rudy Gestede and Cristhian Stuani to lead the line has delivered extremely limited results to date.
Organisation at the back is this team’s strength – they have conceded just two fewer than Monday’s rivals this season and a whopping 30 fewer than Swansea, who sit one place above them in the table at the time of writing.
The departed Aitor Karanka’s cautious approach leaves them staring over the precipice and an immediate return to the Championship but seven games remain on the slate – more than enough to dig themselves out of trouble if they can stage a rally under Agnew.
How the lie of the land looks in the standings come Monday evening will have an influence on the approach of both these teams but fiddling around trying not to lose does neither any good.
The hosts really don’t have the firepower on recent evidence to trouble even this current Arsenal side and following last week’s debacle, it is genuinely unthinkable a collection of highly-paid professional sportsmen and their coaching staff can sink much lower.
Boro will have their moments and try and make things as uncomfortable as possible but the Gunners are fancied to head back to the capital with positive outcome at last and I fancy a routine victory.
Prediction: Middlesbrough 0-2 Arsenal (DJ)
Opta facts:
o Middlesbrough are unbeaten in their last four Premier League home games against Arsenal (W2 D2), although this will be the first meeting at the Riverside since December 2008.
o Middlesbrough have conceded more goals against Arsenal than against any other opponent in the Premier League (62 in 29 games).
o Prior to the 0-0 draw in this season’s reverse fixture, Arsenal had scored in 16 consecutive Premier League games against them, winning 10 of those (D4 L2).
o Olivier Giroud is the only current member of the Arsenal squad to have netted against Middlesbrough in any competition (two in the FA Cup).
o Arsenal have lost four successive Premier League away games for the first time in Arsene Wenger’s reign at the club, with the previous run of four league away defeats in a row coming back in April 1995.
Posted at 1140 BST 15/04/17.
Recommended bets: Sunday Premier League
By David John
West Brom v Liverpool (1330BST)
When you can call on Roberto Firmino and Philippe Coutinho from off the bench you may as well utilise them and a goal each in the second half last week at Stoke put a smile on Jurgen Klopp’s face after Liverpool’s come-from-behind success.
They were certainly off the pace in the first period at the Bet365 Stadium and could have had a much tougher task if Marko Anautovic had dialled in his compass a bit better but three points keeps the Reds in the thick of the action for a top-four finish.
A similar sort of challenge lies ahead at The Hawthorns against Tony Pulis’ group of grafters and Klopp will hope that additional touch of quality in the vital areas can prove the difference.
Coutinho in particular has looked right back to his best following a long injury lay-off since an instrumental role in the Merseyside derby and he and Firmino need to be pivotal performers once again with no Sadio Mane, Adam Lallana or Jordan Henderson to call on.
A moment of brilliance from either Brazilian could turn the tide in their team’s favour but they are up against an uncompromising backline that will give no quarter and certainly won’t be overawed physically.
That said, the Baggies' quest for a record haul of points in a Premier League season has rather stalled of late following back-to-back defeats and four in their last six outings.
They have, however, managed to win over half of their home games and the way they dealt with Arsenal (3-1) a month ago gives every indication there is a good chance of getting back in the groove and moving within one win of reaching 50 points.
It was not for lack of effort they failed last week against Southampton as they piled on the pressure late in the game in a bid to grab a point but could not force the ball over the line from a stack of late chances.
I would anticipate another good deal of endeavour and application and Pulis – who has a remarkable record against Liverpool wherever he has coached – will be keen to exploit the continued weakness of the visitors from set-pieces.
I may have been tempted to side with the hosts again but West Brom-Draw in the Double Chance market is odds-on so I will sit this one out with the encounter ending all square getting a tentative nod.
Prediction: West Brom 1-1 Liverpool
Opta facts:
o Since Steve Clarke led West Brom to a Premier League double over Liverpool in 2012/13, the Baggies have not won any of their following seven games against them (D4 L3).
o The Reds are looking for their first Premier League victory at the Hawthorns since October 2011, where they picked up a 2-0 win under Kenny Dalglish (D3 L1 since).
o Three of West Brom’s four goals against Liverpool under Tony Pulis have been scored by defenders (Craig Dawson, Jonas Olsson and Gareth McAuley).
o After keeping 10 clean sheets in their first 11 Premier League games against West Brom, Liverpool have since kept just one in 10 league meetings since then.
o West Bromwich Albion have scored the most goals corners (14) and no side have scored more headed goals (14) than the Baggies this season in the Premier League.
o WBA average the fewest successful passes per game in the Premier League this season (218); an average that is less than half of Liverpool’s (477 per game – the second best average).
o The Baggies have averaged the lowest ball possession figure in the Premier League this season (36.5%) – a category they were also bottom of in 2015-16 (39.4%).
o Philippe Coutinho has now scored in three successive Premier League appearances but he’s never netted in four appearances in a row in the competition.
Manchester United v Chelsea (1600, Sky Sports 1)
The marquee fixture of the weekend is as much about strength of mind as it is tactical formations with Jose Mourinho gradually getting closer to boiling point in recent weeks while his expensively assembled squad deliver a string of mediocre results.
I emphasise the word ‘results’ – the performances have been worthy of much better but a 14th draw of the campaign at Anderlecht in midweek is now bordering on the ridiculous and Mourinho was well within his rights to call out a frontline that once again squandered enough scoring opportunities to win three games.
His mental state might not be able to take much more if his old club consign him to a third defeat from three meetings this season so the wily Portuguese better get his thinking cap on.
The Europa League remains top priority for United considering they look to be in pole position against the Belgians next Thursday but as a place in the Premier League’s top four is still mathematically possible, Mourinho will go into this fixture with a strong line-up.
Having been humiliated 4-0 at Stamford Bridge on October 23, the Red Devils were making a much better fist of things in the FA Cup last month but Ander Herrera’s controversial red card for one too many clattering challenges on Eden Hazard in the first half led to their inevitable exit from the competition.
It still required a steely effort from Chelsea to break down the 10 men and only a well-placed shot from the edge of the area by N’Golo Kante eventually broke the deadlock, suggesting overall that Mourinho would have got his gameplan just about right.
Whether he will resort to roughhouse tactics again on Hazard remains to be seen but back at Old Trafford his side will need to show more in the way of adventure – although ironically, a draw here would actually be considered an achievement against the pacesetters.
Mourinho and opposite number Antonio Conte had to be separated at Stamford Bridge following Herrera’s dismissal and the Italian's own mental fortitude has been put to the test of late following the shock home loss to Crystal Palace earlier in the month that apparently threw the title race wide open again.
Chelsea responded well with victories over Manchester City and Bournemouth but Tottenham simply won’t go away and could well have turned the screw a little tighter if they beat the Cherries on Saturday and cut the deficit to four points.
However that game plays out, this is the last of the recognised big guns that Chelsea have to play on the run-in while they will get a chance to exert some pressure of their own as their next two games kick-off ahead of their main rivals.
The irascible Diego Costa might have lost his way a little with no goals in four games but Hazard has taken the weight of the team on his shoulders while Kante, Marcos Alonso and Victor Moses (back in the team against Bournemouth) remain key figures for a visiting side that has enjoyed a pretty charmed run in terms of injuries.
Mourinho has had no such luck with gaps to plug in the back four but the squad at his disposal is as good as any around at the moment, albeit without doubt needing that shot of confidence gained from winning on a regular basis.
It will be interesting to see whether he sticks with Marcus Rashford on the left, excellent against Anderlecht and revitalised since his goal at Sunderland last week, or opts for Anthony Martial, while Paul Pogba finally seems on the brink of a real breakout display at his new club.
He will need to impose his will on Kante – easier said than done – while those further up the field must simply put the ball in the back of the net when a chance arrives – there is no chance here otherwise.
I am going to put my faith in the latter assumption that the hosts will play their part and find the target with a bet on both teams to score and to boost the price up, I would not be shocked if Mourinho ultimately has the last laugh as well.
Prediction: Manchester United 2-1 Chelsea
Opta facts:
o Manchester United are without a win in eight Premier League games against Chelsea (D4 L4); their longest ever winless streak against a single opponent in the competition.
o Chelsea, meanwhile, are looking to achieve a league double over Manchester United for the first time since the 2009/10 season under Carlo Ancelotti.
o A win for the away side would see Antonio Conte become the fourth Chelsea boss to record a Premier League double over the Red Devils, after Glenn Hoddle in 1993/94, Jose Mourinho in 2004/05 and the aforementioned Carlo Ancelotti in 2009/10.
o Jose Mourinho has lost both games against his former club since taking over at Manchester United, conceding five goals and failing to score in both. This will be his first game against them as the home side, however.
o The Red Devils have scored just three goals in their last 10 games against Chelsea in all competitions (an average of 0.3 per game).
o N’Golo Kante has netted each of Chelsea’s last two goals against the Reds in all competitions – they are his only goals in 34 appearances for Conte’s side.
o Manchester United’s Premier League unbeaten run now stands at 21 matches (W11 D10 L0) – the joint 10th longest unbeaten run in the history of the competition.
o Zlatan Ibrahimovic has been involved in 18 goals in his last 17 Premier League appearances (13 goals, 5 assists) for Manchester United.
o Chelsea have won as many points this season as it took to win the league exactly 20 years ago (Manchester United with 75 points in 1996/97)
Posted at 1605 BST on 14/04/17.
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By Nick Hext and David John
Tottenham Hotspur v Bournemouth (1230 BST, Sky Sports 1)
Easter’s round of Premier League matches gets started with Tottenham taking on Bournemouth in Saturday’s early kick-off and there’s nothing to suggest anything other than a routine home win at White Hart Lane.
Tottenham’s home form has been widely lauded and I fell into the trap a few weeks ago of trying to oppose them as the pressure ratcheted up in the chase to keep up with leaders Chelsea.
I won’t be doing that again in this contest, although there’s precious little to be gained from a best price of 3/10 available for Spurs.
Tottenham have won their last 14 matches at White Hart Lane since drawing 1-1 with Leicester all the way back at the end of October. They have drawn with Gent and lost to Bayer Leverkusen at ‘home��� since the draw with the Foxes but both of those games took place at Wembley.
Spurs have also handed out some thrashings in that run and the bookies are more than aware of this.
It’s odds-on across the board for Maurico Pochettino’s men to net three or more against Bournemouth and that isn’t a big enough price to take an interest with star striker Harry Kane just returning from injury.
Spurs did manage to wallop Watford 4-0 last weekend - a repeat of that scoreline is rated at 14/1 - but I think Bournemouth’s recent record means they are contenders to cause the home side’s defence a few problems.
The Cherries have netted against both Chelsea and Manchester City in their last two matches so I’m inclined to avoid the temptation to back Tottenham to win to nil.
Josh King is the main man for Tottenham’s defence to be wary of with seven goals in his last eight outings and there is potential for Bournemouth to create a few nervy moments for the home side.
Still, expect Spurs to come out on top and get favourite backers off to a good start.
Prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 3-1 Bournemouth (NH)
Opta facts:
o Tottenham have won two of their three Premier League meetings with Bournemouth (D1), netting eight goals and conceding just once in the process.
o The Cherries' only top-flight goal against Spurs came after 49 seconds of their first such meeting against them – Matt Ritchie scored it at the Vitality Stadium in October 2015.
o Two of the three league games between these sides have seen the opening goal scored in the opening minute, with the other game finishing 0-0.
o Harry Kane has scored five of Tottenham’s eight Premier League goals against the Cherries (63%). He did not feature in this season’s reverse fixture in October however, which was then the first time Spurs had failed to score in a league game in 2016/17.
o Dele Alli has been directly involved in 14 goals in 13 Premier League games for Tottenham in 2017 (10 goals, 4 assists).
o If Tottenham win this match they’ll reach 71 points from 32 games – one more point than they achieved in the whole of 2015-16 (70).
o These two clubs have won the most penalties in the Premier League this season – Bournemouth have won 10 and Spurs have won eight.
Crystal Palace v Leicester City (1500)
If you were doing some sort of long-term forecast in August, you would have not have got much of a price on Palace being odds-on chances to beat Leicester. But that is the current state of affairs as Sam Allardyce once again seems to have saved a side which looked destined for the second tier at the start of the year.
Five wins out of six is impressive in any language and although perhaps at their most dominant against Arsenal on Monday night, that did come against a rival who do not need much of a nudge at the moment to topple over in spectacular fashion.
The confidence gained will not do the Eagles any harm though and it is back to business against a side they could overtake in the table with three points that would just about guarantee another year of top-flight football.
The Foxes have staged a famous rally of their own of late under Craig Shakespeare even if they were chasing shadows for a good part of last week’s 4-2 defeat at Everton, and seemed to iron out a few wrinkles as expected to limit Atletico Madrid to just a dubious penalty and a host of long-range efforts midweek.
The bottom line is though they have lost back-to-back games as opposition managers start to get a better handle on what Shakespeare’s approach is all about and you can be sure Allardyce will not be found wanting when it comes to doing his homework to press home any advantage.
You can argue Leicester having to recover from their midweek jaunt to Spain has been factored into Palace’s price but they were winners at West Ham immediately after knocking Sevilla out of the Champions League so there should be no real excuses on that front.
It is a worry that Wes Morgan is still not available due to an ongoing back issue but there remains enough menace on the counter-attack from the visitors to catch out the hosts and two sides who are finally looking upwards as the season draws to a close could well share the spoils.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Leicester City (DJ)
Opta facts:
o Crystal Palace have alternated between victory and defeat in their four home Premier League games against Leicester, keeping a clean sheet in each win and failing to score in each defeat.
o After winning just one of their first six Premier League games against Crystal Palace (D1 L4), Leicester have since won the last three in a row.
o Indeed, this is the first time Leicester have won three in a row against the Eagles in all competitions since March 1925 – they’ve never won four consecutively against them.
o Sam Allardyce has won his last two home games against reigning Premier League champions as a manager, beating Manchester City with West Ham in 2014-15 and beating Chelsea with Sunderland in 2015-16.
o Crystal Palace have won five of their last six Premier League matches (L1). Before this run, they’d won five games in 26 attempts in the Premier League.
o Both Crystal Palace and Leicester have won 15 of a possible 18 points in their last six Premier League games – the only side to have won more points in their last six PL matches are Spurs (18).
o Wilfried Zaha has assisted nine goals for Crystal Palace in the Premier League this season, equalling the record by an Eagles’ player in a single PL campaign (Wayne Routledge, nine in 2004-05).
Everton v Burnley (1500)
Ronald Koeman might disagree but the consensus is that Everton were abysmal in the Merseyside derby. However, they have shown some fortitude since then by nearly hanging on to beat Manchester United at Old Trafford and then sweeping aside Leicester in a crazy game last weekend.
This screams strong home banker once again as they look to make it eight on the spin at Goodison in the Premier League with everything firing on all cylinders at the moment, particularly in the final third of the field as Romelu Lukaku presses home his claims for a whopping new contract or a big-money move elsewhere.
Lukaku netted another brace against the Foxes but it was Kevin Mirallas who impressed me by producing a man-of-the-match display that got Everton on the front foot. He almost opened the scoring too but got in a bit of a tangle under pressure in the penalty area and Tom Davies stepped in to tidy up.
Mirallas seems to have really stepped up in the last couple of games having been benched against Liverpool and his price to get on the scoresheet here is tempting.
The visitors have had much better chances than this to finally win away from home lately but goalless draws with Sunderland and Middlesbrough are a step in the right direction in the grand scheme of things and manager Sean Dyche can at least console himself with a pair of clean sheets.
January signing Robbie Brady was chief culprit at the Riverside last week after he wasted a couple of opportunities following rare forays forward from the Clarets. Form of no goals in four outings will surely not cut any ice in this game with a combination of Andre Gray, Ashley Barnes and Sam Vokes all looking distinctly out of sorts.
It all points to another heroic effort being required from a Burnley rearguard led by the excellent Michael Keane and Tom Heaton but stemming the tide for 90 minutes and beyond is probably asking too much with Mirallas fancied to be among those to make a telling impact.
Prediction: Everton 2-0 Burnley (DJ)
Opta facts:
o Everton have won both of their previous Premier League home games against Burnley, keeping a clean sheet each time.
o Burnley won the reverse of this fixture 2-1 thanks to Scott Arfield’s 90th minute strike. They’ve not done the league double over Everton since the 1959/60 campaign, when they won the top-flight.
o Romelu Lukaku has scored in all eight of Everton’s competitive matches at Goodison Park in 2017; seven Premier League games and one in the FA Cup.
o Burnley have won just four points in 16 Premier League away matches this season (W0 D4 L12) – the only team in the top four tiers of English football to have won fewer away from home in league competition this season are Rotherham (1).
o Tom Heaton has made the most saves in the Premier League this season (120), while Burnley have allowed their opponents a league-high 573 shots in total.
o Everton have scored 26 goals in seven Premier League games at Goodison Park in 2017 – one more than they netted in 18 Premier League home matches in 2016 (25).
o Ross Barkley is the leading English player in the Premier League for assists (8) and chances created (73) this season. He’s assisted three league goals for Lukaku since the start of February – the same tally he had in the competition for the Belgian before then.
Stoke City v Hull City (1500)
There shouldn’t be many takers for the even-money on offer for out-of-form Stoke to get the better of the impressive Hull at the bet365 Stadium.
I've been staggered by the impact that Marco Silva has enjoyed at Hull. Not because I though he was the wrong choice because of a lack of Premier League experience, just simply because this looked like a squad that lacked the basic quality needed even to stay off the foot of the table.
The departure of both Robert Snodgrass and Jake Livermore during January added further credence to my views on the Tigers and there wasn’t much coming in at the KCOM Stadium that caught the eye.
It’s turned out that Silva has been able to mingle his low-key January additions with the last remnants of Hull’s promotion winning squad in spectacular fashion.
Forgotten Liverpool flop Lazar Markovic and Oumar Niasse, who was barely considered good enough by Everton boss Ronald Koeman to play in the Checkatrade Trophy earlier this season, are just two of the players producing their best performances in years and that all adds up to a real chance of survival for the Tigers.
They sit two points ahead of Swansea ahead of the latest round of fixtures and there’s no reason that I can see to expect a routine Stoke win in this contest.
The Potters have lost their last four matches on the spin and they’ve only been able to win two of their previous 11.
A little more work is needed from Mark Hughes’ men to secure their top-flight status once again, something that I’m sure they will do, but this is proving to be a slightly trying time for Stoke supporters.
The club has still made magnificent progress over the last two decades so there’s no need to get too carried away but alterations are certainly needed to the squad over the summer to ensure that things keep going in the right direction.
Hull’s away record - they’ve lost 13 and drawn just one of their previous 14 games outside the KCOM Stadium - is the reason I’m just about stepping away from the 10/3 available but don’t bank on Stoke at such a short price.
The draw is worth a look as is taking a note of two of Stoke’s previous six home games ending level at 1-1.
Prediction: Stoke City 1-1 Hull City (NH)
Opta facts:
o Stoke have only lost one of their nine previous Premier League meetings with Hull (1-2 in November 2009), winning the last two in a row.
o Hull have failed to score in their last three league visits to the bet365 Stadium (L3), with their only goal there coming in a 1-1 draw in November 2008.
o Indeed, the Tigers haven’t won a league game at Stoke since January 2006, but they did win an EFL Cup tie there earlier this season (2-1 in September).
o Hull have won 17 points in the Premier League since Marco Silva was appointed manager, but just one of these points have come away from home (P6 W0 D1 L5).
o Stoke are on a run of four successive Premier League defeats – they have never lost five in a row in the competition and the last time they did this in a single top-flight campaign was back in May 1985 (10 defeats in a row).
o Hull have conceded eight goals in the 90th minute or later of Premier League games this season; more than any other side.
o Stoke have scored just two goals in their last five Premier League matches, despite attempting 44 shots in these games – both of which were scored by Jonathan Walters.
Sunderland v West Ham United (1500)
Sunderland’s long goodbye from the Premier League continues with Saturday’s clash at home to West Ham.
After season upon season of different characters securing survival at the Stadium of Light, this is finally the campaign that ends with the Black Cats dropping down to the Sky Bet Championship.
The increasingly agitated David Moyes is not going to follow the knee-sliding Paolo Di Canio, the arm waving of Gus Poyet, the endearingly tearful Dick Advocaat and the dancing Sam Allardyce in becoming a short-term hero for the Sunderland faithful.
I don’t think there is anything in the weeks ahead that’s going to get Moyes even close to strutting his stuff.
Sunderland have lost six and drawn just one of their previous seven matches to sit 10 points behind fourth-bottom Hull at the foot of the table.
The Black Cats haven���t even managed a goal during that run - in fact, they've found the net in just one of their last 11, so quite how they put four past Crystal Palace that day remains a mystery.
Clearly, their scoring return is appalling and makes the 12/5 available with BetVictor for the Black Cats not to find the net in this game worth a small bet.
West Ham won 1-0 at home to Swansea last time out but they haven’t been impressive recently with a five-game losing run suffered before that success.
Slaven Bilic’s future as Hammers boss is still in doubt and he can’t afford to suffer defeat against the division’s bottom club if he is to keep his name out of the headlines.
I think the Hammers will get the three points they need but there’s a little more value to be had in finding a way to back Sunderland’s problems in front of goal to continue.
Prediction: Sunderland 0-2 West Ham United (NH)
Opta facts:
o Sunderland are winless in their last seven league games against West Ham (D3 L4), with the last two finishing 1-0 to the Hammers.
o However, West Ham haven’t done the league double against Sunderland since the 2008/09 campaign (under Gianfranco Zola).
o Jermain Defoe has scored six goals in 15 Premier League games against his former club, but he’s yet to score against them in three appearances for Sunderland.
o Sunderland have now gone seven successive Premier League games and 675 minutes without scoring. The Premier League record is currently held by Crystal Palace in 1994-95, who went nine consecutive games and 838 minutes without a goal.
o On Saturday, it’ll be over three months since Sunderland scored a goal at home in the Premier League (January 14th) and they’ve now attempted 51 successive shots without scoring at the Stadium of Light.
o West Ham have lost 16 Premier League matches this season, already twice the number they lost in the whole of last season (8).
o On the day of this game, Sunderland will have spent 224 days in the relegation zone this season. The record for a single season is held by Sheffield Wednesday in 1999-00 (278 days) and if Sunderland remain in the bottom three between now and the end of the season they can only reach 261 days in 2016-17.
Watford v Swansea City (1500)
Swansea’s downturn has seen them go odds-on for relegation heading into Saturday’s trip to Watford.
However, I don’t think Paul Clement’s men are without hope and I wouldn’t be surprised by an away win at Vicarage Road.
Odds of around 2/1 though for Swansea just aren’t inviting enough for me and I think there’s better value to be found in anticipating a cagey contest.
Swansea fell to 1-0 defeat at West Ham last time out to follow on from a heart-breaking 3-1 loss at home to Tottenham, when they were leading 1-0 up until the 88th minute, and a goalless draw with fellow strugglers Middlesbrough before that.
I just don’t see many goals ahead in this game and 12/5 for under 1.5 goals makes plenty of appeal.
Watford’s defence will have a point to prove after being embarrassed in the 4-0 capitulation at Tottenham last time out and that performance wasn’t reflective of their recent good work.
The Hornets had claimed back-to-back home wins without conceding a goal before arriving at White Hart Lane so I’m prepared to give as much credit to Spurs’ rampant attack as I am to dish out criticism to Walter Mazzarri’s backline.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mazzarri replaced in the summer but he’s done a decent job to keep the Hornets out of trouble this season after a slightly shaky start to his tenure.
Swansea fans would love to be up in mid-table with Watford but their side’s work is far from done and has been hindered by an injury to midfield lynchpin Jack Cork.
Leon Britton is finally set to make his first appearance since Clement took charge and it will be interesting to see how Cork’s absence affects this match.
Swansea need the three points and that can make a surprise possible at this time of the season but Watford’s home form is strong enough to warrant respect and we'll focus on the prospect of a low-scoring game.
Prediction: Watford 0-1 Swansea City (NH)
Opta facts:
o Valon Behrami’s only red card in 102 Premier League appearances came in this exact fixture last season (September 2015).
o Watford have been given a joint-league high four red cards in the Premier League this season, while no club have received as many yellow cards (72).
o Jose Holebas has been given 12 yellow cards in the Premier League this season; three more than any other player. He’s not been booked in any of his last four Premier League appearances, but is yet to go five in a row without a booking in 2016-17.
o A league-high 24% of the total shots that Swansea City have attempted this season in the Premier League have been from headers, while they have also attempted the most headed shots (84).
o The Hornets have scored the highest proportion of goals in the opening 15 minutes of Premier League games this season – 25% (9/36).
o Swansea’s tally of 67 goals conceded is the joint-seventh highest by a side after 32 games of a Premier League season. All 14 teams to have conceded 64+ goals after 32 games in a Premier League season have been relegated.
o Troy Deeney has scored six goals in his last eight Premier League starts for Watford, including his last four appearances at Vicarage Road in the competition.
Southampton v Manchester City (1730, BT Sport 1)
I’m going with the upset in Saturday’s final Premier League game.
Southampton have home advantage against Manchester City and I like the look of Saints at close to 4/1 to spring a surprise.
Star striker Manolo Gabbiadini’s comeback is definitely a boost for Southampton and the return of the ever-dependable Steven Davis to the midfield is a further fillip for boss Claude Puel.
Saints have won back-to-back matches - 3-1 against Crystal Palace at St Mary’s and 1-0 away to West Brom - to consolidate their position in the top half and they’ve done well to bounce back from the 3-2 defeat against Manchester United in the EFL Cup final, a match that could so easily have gone the other way.
Only Tottenham have beaten Southampton in their five Premier League matches since that cruel defeat at Wembley and Puel’s men have produced some decent performances against the top-flight’s big-hitters this season.
Liverpool were impressively dispatched in the semi-finals of the EFL Cup and it was a fantastic display from Saints in the 1-1 draw against City at the Etihad Stadium back in October.
Southampton had the better of things in that contest, with goalscorer Nathan Redmond in particular showcasing the talent that has seen him rightly included in the England squad.
City were in the midst of a six-match winless run when drawing that game and that sequence was one of the tougher moments to date during Pep Guardiola’s first season in English football.
The recent form from City though hasn’t been too spectacular either.
A hard-working 3-1 win at home to Hull last time out ended a four-game wait for a victory, although those matches were all against very tough opposition in Monaco, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea.
The results still prove that City are some way off challenging for the title and Southampton are in my view a much better side than Middlesbrough, Sunderland, Bournemouth, West Ham and Crystal Palace, who have been swatted aside for the last five away wins for Guardiola’s side.
The price for the home win makes appeal. I don’t think Saints’ chances of success are as unlikely as the bookies reckon so it’s worth a small stake to get with the hosts at St Mary’s.
Prediction: Southampton 2-1 Manchester City (NH)
Opta facts:
o Southampton have picked up just one win from their last seven games against the Blues in the Premier League (D2 L4), although that did come in this fixture last season (4-2).
o City last failed to score in a game against Southampton back in October 2004, having netted in all 11 meetings in all competitions since.
o Saints are unbeaten in their last two Premier League meetings with City (W1 D1), while they have only twice previously gone three without defeat against them in the competition (January 1996 and May 2003).
o Against teams he has faced at least twice in the Premier League, only against Everton (312) does Sergio Aguero have a worse mins/goal ratio than he does against Southampton (264).
o Sergio Aguero has scored in 11 successive Premier League appearances in the month of April (14 goals). He's scored in all three Premier League games in April 2017 so far and is currently on a run of scoring in four successive league appearances overall.
o Should Manchester City win this match, they'll equal their total number of Premier League wins in 2015-16 under Manuel Pellegrini (19).
o David Silva has assisted the most goals (63) and created the most goalscoring chances (598) in the Premier League since he arrived at Manchester City in July 2010.
Posted at 1905 BST on 13/04/17.