Our top football tipsters bring you their match-by-match betting previews for the weekend's Premier League games.
Nick Hext offers his verdict on Sunday's three Premier League matches.
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"We have lots of things going against us and we will have to fight and we will probably lose on Sunday. Fatigue has a price."
That’s the opposite of fighting talk from Jose Mourinho ahead of Manchester United’s trip to Middlesbrough on Sunday.
Roy Keane has already had his say on the Portuguese’s whinging. “It's just utter nonsense what he's talking about” being just one of a string of barbs aimed at the moaning Mourinho.
The bookies certainly don’t agree that United “will probably lose”.
The Red Devils are odds-on across the board to get the three points at Boro, who enter this contest on the back of manager Aitor Karanka’s departure on Thursday.
Karanka’s exit, by mutual consent according to both parties, is the right decision but it could well be too late, especially as there doesn’t seem to be a replacement ready to arrive at the time of writing.
Boro haven’t scored in their last five Premier League games, picking up just one draw in the process, and they sit second-bottom of the table with a three-point gap to safety ahead of the start of this weekend’s action. It could be wider by Sunday lunchtime.
The problem for the Riverside Stadium outfit all season has been scoring goals.
They have the worst record in the division to leave them unable to take advantage of the strong showing from their defence that has conceded fewer goals than both Arsenal and Liverpool.
That leaves caretaker-manager Steve Agnew with a conundrum. How best to get Boro scoring while not losing the defensive stability that has marked the progress made during Karanka’s reign?
Agnew is unfortunate that he doesn’t have too many options to change Boro’s approach. Adama Traore is their most lively talent but his end-product is inconsistent and both Rudy Gestede and Alvaro Negredo lack finesse at the head of the attack.
We’ve already seen from Hull, Swansea and Leicester this season that a change of manager can reap immediate dividends but Boro have been under Karanka’s learning tree for so long that it’s hard to see how they can immediately evolve into the Harlem Globetrotters.
The hope for the hosts on Sunday is the aforementioned “fatigue” takes effect and United suffer from the loss of the injured Paul Pogba and suspended Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Ander Herrera.
Mourinho has other injury concerns but the absence of those three is definitely the biggest boost to Boro’s chances of springing a surprise, although it could be an advantage for Mourinho to ring the changes if you believe his comments at the top of this preview.
Boro are a best price of 5/1 to get the win and I’m sure that will have quite a few backers given the possibility of a positive reaction to Karanka’s departure.
I just don’t think, though, that Agnew has the attacking talent to defeat the Red Devils.
United have only conceded five goals in their last 12 outings and they still have enough strength at the back to not be flustered by their hectic fixture schedule.
I agree with the bookies that United will get a narrow win in a low-scoring game but it’s one to avoid from a punting perspective given the uncertainty created by Karanka’s exit and, to a lesser extent, United’s busy run of games.
Prediction: Middlesbrough 0-1 Manchester United
Opta facts:
o Manchester United have scored in each of their last 14 away league games against Middlesbrough; their longest active streak against a single opponent.
o The Red Devils have won four of their last six Premier League trips to the Riverside (D1 L1).
o After losing successive Premier League games against promoted sides in December 2015 (vs Bournemouth and Norwich), United are unbeaten in their last seven (W5 D2), keeping five clean sheets.
o United’s next win will be their 600th in the Premier League, becoming the first side to reach that landmark.
o Middlesbrough’s next loss in the Premier League will be their 1000th defeat in the English top-flight and they would become the 14th team to lose that number.
o This game will see the team who averages the fewest shots on target (Middlesbrough – 2.4 per game) face the team who attempts the most per game (Manchester United – 6.3).
I’ve backed Everton and Millwall to keep things close in Tottenham’s last two home games but the sensational form from Mauricio Pochettino’s men at White Hart Lane hasn’t slowed down.
Spurs have won 12 matches in a row at their own stadium and that run has taken them to second in the Premier League and the semi-finals of the FA Cup.
The difference for Sunday’s match at home to Southampton is the loss of star striker Harry Kane to injury.
Kane is set to be ruled out by ankle ligament damage for four to six weeks and that leaves Pochettino with a problem as Spurs bid to remain clear in the top four.
Son Heung-min looks the most likely player to benefit from Kane’s absence. The forward scored a hat-trick in last weekend’s 6-0 win over Millwall in the FA Cup and he’s got a decent tally of 14 goals to his name this season.
Vincent Janssen also netted against the Lions but the Dutchman has found the going tough in the Premier League and it’s hard to see Pochettino immediately picking him to replace Kane.
Son is an interesting contender at 17/10 in the anytime scorer odds but Spurs’ goals are shared out.
Tottenham’s last 12 goals have been netted by six different players, including four from the ruled-out Kane, so Southampton also have the likes of Christian Eriksen, Dele Alli and Harry Winks to keep them busy.
Saints bounced back from losing 3-2 to Manchester United in the EFL Cup final with a 4-3 win at Watford last time out.
Manolo Gabbiadini netted in that victory and the Italian forward has now scored for seven matches in a row, including goals in his final three appearances for former club Napoli.
Gabbiadini is 13/5 in 32Red’s anytime scorer prices and that’s just about where I’d expect him to be given that Tottenham have only conceded in four of those 12 victories in a row at White Hart Lane.
Tottenham deserve to be trusted for another three-point haul at home but Kane’s absence is enough to keep a watching brief.
Prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 3-2 Southampton
Opta facts:
o Mauricio Pochettino has lost just one of his five Premier League games against his former team Southampton (W3 D1 L1), although it came in the last meeting at White Hart Lane in May 2016.
o Dele Alli has scored three and assisted one more in two Premier League appearances v Southampton.
o Christian Eriksen has netted three goals in three Premier League games against Southampton at White Hart Lane.
o Manolo Gabbiadini has found the back of the net in each of his last seven competitive appearances, including all four games for Southampton and in the three prior to his move for Italian side Napoli (nine goals in total).
o Gabbiadini could become the third player in Premier League history to score in each of his first four appearances in the competition alongside Mick Quinn and Diego Costa.
o Southampton have won their last two Premier League games, netting four goals in each clash. They’ve not won three in a row since a four-game streak in May 2016, with a victory over Spurs the third win in this run.
I’m more than happy to have a slice of Liverpool at an inviting 3/1 to win at Manchester City in the final Premier League game before the international break.
The Reds’ struggles on the road in 2017 have been widely reported with just one victory at Plymouth of Sky Bet League Two picked up in the six away games so far this year.
That run includes a 1-1 draw at Manchester United, a point secured for the Red Devils by Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s late equaliser, and Liverpool’s record against the top sides in the Premier League is my main reason for backing Jurgen Klopp’s men.
The Reds haven’t lost any of their 12 league games against the sides sitting in the top half of the division prior to this weekend’s matches.
That record includes victories on the road at Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton plus wins at home to Arsenal and Tottenham in their last four outings.
Klopp’s side also beat Manchester City 1-0 at Anfield in the final Premier League game of 2016 and that success was more convincing than just a solitary goal from Georginio Wijnaldum suggests.
Liverpool’s problem, as you would anticipate from the results above, is dispatching the division’s lesser lights but that isn’t a worry when looking at the trip to the Etihad Stadium.
City sit just one point and place above the Reds in third prior to this contest but momentum has been lost by Pep Guardiola’s men after exiting the Champions League with a disappointing 3-1 defeat at Monaco in midweek.
Guardiola’s side have impressed in 2017, winning 11 of their 15 matches, but they haven’t beaten any of their fellow top-four teams Chelsea, Tottenham and Liverpool in four outings this season.
City have got the better of Manchester United and Arsenal during the current campaign, so it would be unfair to say they haven’t turned up when the pressure is on, but it’s definitely Liverpool with the edge in big matches this term.
That means City just can’t be backed at around even money across the board.
The 3/1 available with Betfred and Unibet for Liverpool to win really is a cracking price.
explains in more detail the reasons for City’s problems in their approach and I’m really confident that the price for Klopp to once again get the better of Guardiola is too big.
Prediction: Manchester City 1-3 Liverpool
Opta facts:
o Manchester City have lost five of their last six Premier League meetings with Liverpool (W1).
o Indeed, Liverpool have won four consecutive league games against Man City for the first time since 1981 (a run of seven).
o City have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 12 games in all competitions against Liverpool, shipping 23 in the process (W2 D4 L6).
o Philippe Coutinho has scored more Premier League goals v Manchester City than against any other team (4) in the competition.
o Sergio Aguero has found the back of the net in all four of his Premier League games v Liverpool at the Etihad Stadium (four goals).
o Jurgen Klopp has won five times against Pep Guardiola in all competitions (including one penalty shootout victory) – this is more than any other manager has collected against the Spaniard.
Posted at 1420 GMT on 17/03/17.
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Arsenal managed to restore a little bit of order to their affairs with a straightforward success in the FA Cup over plucky Lincoln (they also finally walked the ball into the goal after a decade of trying) but Tony Pulis and his Baggies will attempt to make things as awkward as possible this weekend.
They managed to pull off a 2-1 victory in the corresponding fixture last season - memorable also for Santi Cazorla’s off-target penalty kick - but pretty insipid recent defeats to Crystal Palace and Everton mean the hosts are a long way from the sort of form usually required to trouble the Gunners.
Pulis felt his players worked hard at Goodison but that seemed a rather generous appraisal considering they rarely threatened the Everton goal and never looked like putting up a fight once conceding a double salvo immediately before the break.
Their much-journeyed manager though has displayed a knack for getting under Arsene Wenger’s skin over the years and will set his side up to compete physically and hopefully be tough to break down once more, a situation which has been the case for much of the season during home games.
An FA Cup semi-final berth against an erratic Manchester City is something to look forward to but the pressure is right back on Arsenal as three recent defeats in the Premier League has left them outside of the top four looking in.
They do have games in hand over Liverpool but that is not really considered an advantage as the fixture backlog piles up while disgruntled fans continue to voice their concerns over Wenger remaining at the Emirates and the future of Alexis Sanchez with more protests apparently planned in the midlands.
This has been an excellent campaign so far for West Brom and it would be a bit of shame if it started to unravel and they end up scratching around for a few meagre morsels over the closing 10 matches.
So what better time than the current to stir themselves back into action against a visitor that still looks mentally lightweight and could be made to pay from a West Brom speciality – the set-piece.
Goalkeeper Ben Foster has issued the ubiquitous rallying cry to his team-mates not to let the campaign fizzle out and limiting the spluttering Gunners to under 1.5 goals in the game looks like a bet in anticipation of the hosts going back to basics and delivering an organised performance.
Prediction: West Brom 1-1 Arsenal
Opta facts:
o Tony Pulis has won only one of his last nine Premier League matches against Arsenal (D2 L6), although it came in this exact fixture last season at The Hawthorns (2-1).
o Pulis has only lost one of his six previous Premier League home games against Arsenal and Arsene Wenger (W3 D2 L1) and is unbeaten in the last four.
o Arsenal have scored in all 21 of their Premier League meetings with West Brom; their best such 100% record in the competition.
o The Gunners have lost just one of their last 12 Premier League games against West Brom, winning nine (D2 L1).
o James Morrison has found the back of the net in two of his last three Premier League games against Arsenal at The Hawthorns.
o Alexis Sanchez has been involved in 26 Premier League goals this season (17 goals, nine assists) – more than any other player in the competition.
The services of both teams have not been required for a fortnight with no involvement in the FA Cup and Palace will look to boost their quest for survival with a third straight success following a short break to recharge in Morocco.
An edgy 1-0 success over Middlesbrough got the monkey off their back to a certain extent after some poor displays in front of their own fans but they were far more convincing at West Brom as flair players like Wilfrid Zaha and Andros Townsend really shone with a goal apiece.
The arrival of Mamadou Sakho to help shore up the centre of defence has been another positive and two clean sheets are probably not a surprise thanks to his calming influence in a unit that has come up with its fair share of howlers all season.
The bookmakers feel they have seen enough from the Eagles to justify an odds-on quote for victory but I am not entirely convinced even against a team that has lost two out of their last three.
The Hornets possess a threat and have goals in them although manager Walter Mazzarri will not have been overly impressed with the way they gave Southampton a helping hand along the way in a 4-3 reverse at Vicarage Road a fortnight ago.
They will have stewed on that during the intervening period but that is also an excellent spell of time to get some things ironed out defensively – that means you in particular, Sebastian Prodl.
I am not going to have a bet here but I think these are two teams more evenly matched than the betting suggests and the visitors are capable of claiming a share of the spoils.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Watford
Opta facts:
o Crystal Palace have scored in each of their last 13 encounters with Watford in all competitions, including all three previous PL meetings (W8 D3 L2).
o Watford have won their last two trips to Selhurst Park, after a run of three successive defeats (3-2 in August 2012 and 2-1 in February 2016).
o Troy Deeney has scored four goals in his last three appearances against Crystal Palace in all competitions.Deeney has scored more goals in his last six Premier League appearances (5) than he had in his previous 21 (4) in the competition this season.
o The Eagles have won more points in their last two Premier League games (6) than they had in their previous eight league matches under Sam Allardyce (4).
o Watford have won both of their Premier League away games in London this season (4-2 at West Ham and 2-1 at Arsenal). They had only won two of their 16 PL away games in London before 2016-17 (W2 D3 L11).
o If Watford win this match then they will have won the joint-most Premier League away games in London this season alongside Liverpool (3).
There will be plenty of punters shovelling the cash on potential home bankers Everton at odds-on as they bid to bring up five wins on the trot at Goodison Park.
They have not conceded in three of those either as manager Ronald Koeman was purring once again after they strolled to a 3-0 success over West Brom with star men Ross Barkley and Romelu Lukaku finishing the season strongly.
Both have been the subject of will-they/won’t-they contract rumours in the week and as long as neither has been overly distracted, it is going to take a super-human effort from the visitors to keep them under control for 90 minutes.
Hull recorded an important victory against Swansea last week but remain mired in the bottom three and will more than likely still be there unless they discover some sort of magic potion to cure an abysmal away record.
It stands currently at 11 defeats out of 12 since the end of October will have to be addressed to some extent if they are not going to be heading straight back into the Sky Bet Championship.
The obvious glimmer of hope is their efforts at the KCOM Stadium (WWWWDW since the start of the year) and new head coach Marco Silva needs to cement an impressive start to his work in England by somehow ensuring they are a bit less powder-puff on their travels.
This should be an interesting afternoon for last week's double-goal hero Oumar Niasse on his return to the club that felt he had nothing to offer and Hull’s slim opportunity to all intents and purposes will rely on chances dropping his way in the belief he will get on from the start.
That said, even the biggest Tigers optimist would be hard pushed to see the team taking anything from this and the home side can keep up a strong charge for Europe.
Prediction: Everton 3-1 Hull
Opta facts:
o No current Hull player has scored more than one Premier League goal on the road this season (five players with one goal).
o Romelu Lukaku is the only current Everton player to score more than once versus Hull in the Premier League, netting against them in May and December 2014.
o The Belgian is currently on 79 goals in the Premier League and won’t be 24 years old until May. Only three players have reached 80 goals before their 24th birthday – Michael Owen, Wayne Rooney and Robbie Fowler.
o Lukaku is on 19 Premier League goals this season and could be the first Everton player to reach 20 league goals in a single season since Gary Lineker in 1985-86 (30 goals).
o Since Marco Silva’s appointment as manager, Hull City have won 11 points from eight matches in the Premier League. Ten of these points have come at home (W3 D1 L0) and just one has been won away (W0 D1 L3).
o Hull have already conceded 10 goals from the penalty spot this season in the Premier League – more than any other club in a single Premier League campaign.
The Potters have enjoyed a 10-day break since an impressive tactical display to get a point at Manchester City to keep them on course for another top-half Premier League finish.
It has been mostly steady and rarely spectacular under Mark Hughes this season but they have done enough to earn a day off this week at the Cheltenham Festival ahead of attempting to be the latest team to put the skids under Chelsea’s charge towards the title.
It is quite an interesting clash too as Stoke were the first outfit in some time on New Year’s Eve to serve it up a little to Antonio Conte’s men at Stamford Bridge and if they go about things with similar verve allied to a sound game plan then this may not be plain sailing for the visitors at the notoriously tricky Bet365 Stadium.
Chelsea certainly invested plenty of energy on Monday night into reaching the FA Cup semi-finals at the expense of Manchester United and I would not be massively shocked if there were to be a little bit of a mental and physical hangover.
I don’t believe complacency comes into the equation as Conte and his experienced players are far too savvy despite a 10-point advantage at the summit while depth in the squad provides scope for rotation if there are any tired limbs.
On that front, it seems Victor Moses is the only concern but there is very little in the way of drop off considering Pedro will step up and fill in if required.
Eden Hazard continues to buzz around to great effect despite the pummelling he took from some of the Red Devils while Marcos Alonso has been one of the best players in the top flight from flag fall so there should be huge motivation among the group to move 13 points clear before Tottenham run out on Sunday to face Southampton.
It is impossible to escape from the reality that Hughes and company are probably playing for eighth place but that might not stop them delivering a signature display to keep spirits up through the spring and can eke out something positive from the game.
Prediction: Stoke 1-1 Chelsea
Opta facts:
o Stoke have won only two of their 17 Premier League meetings with Chelsea (D3 L12), with both victories arriving at the bet365 Stadium.
o Chelsea have recorded just two wins in their last seven visits to Stoke in all competitions (D3 L2) – 2-0 in December 2014 and 4-0 in January 2013.
o Cesc Fabregas has assisted seven goals in eight Premier League starts against Stoke, with the Spaniard also netting two in the process. Indeed, only against Spurs (11) has Fabregas provided more assists in the Premier League than versus Stoke (7).
o Diego Costa’s next Premier League goal will be his 50th in the competition and would be the seventh Chelsea player to reach that milestone for the club.
o If Costa does score in this game, he will have reached 50 goals in 80 Premier League appearances. The only players to do this in fewer games were Andrew Cole (65), Alan Shearer (66), Ruud van Nistelrooy (68) and Fernando Torres (72).
o Chelsea have used the fewest players (21) and made the fewest changes to their starting XI overall (24) this season in the Premier League.
Burnley were excellent again at Liverpool and their testing spell of four away games on the trot comes to a close this weekend with a good chance to finally claim the away success which has eluded them.
They are a best price of 2/1 to finally scramble across the line and it has reached the stage of the season where desperation should be replaced by determination in the quest considering their relatively healthy current league position.
It is a different mentality, but they put in a good shift in the FA Cup clash on Wearside in January to force a 0-0 draw and performances have certainly improved on the road since then culminating in giving Liverpool plenty to think about at Anfield.
The Black Cats are bottom and six points from safety after three defeats followed the one recent ray of light when they swept aside Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park at the beginning of last month.
The club seems happy to retain the faith in David Moyes despite just five victories and a two-week hiatus since the 2-0 home defeat to Manchester City might prove handy as the Scot once more tries to get them on the right track.
A lively start and finish against City was promising but the bit in the middle still needs major work while the return in goal of Jordan Pickford will boost their prospects of keeping the back door shut – his tussle with in-form Andre Gray should be very good.
Moyes never seems to lose faith in his players and they will keep plugging away while recent England call-up Jermain Defoe should feel in the mood – it all adds up to another stalemate.
Prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Burnley
Opta facts:
o Jermain Defoe has scored in his last two Premier League appearances against Burnley.
o Defoe has scored in every month of Premier League action between January 2016 and February 2017 (12 successive months) but is yet to score in March 2017.
o Andre Gray is the only Burnley player to score a hat-trick in Premier League history; after he bagged three against Sunderland earlier this season.
o Burnley have only ever won one Premier League game in the month of March (P10 W1 D1 L8) and have a worse points per game ratio in this month than any other side in the history of the competition (0.40).
o Burnley have the worst away record in the Premier League this season; winning just two points from 42 available (W0 D2 L12).
o The lowest points tally collected away from home in a single Premier League season is three; set by Derby County in 2007-08. Burnley have five away games remaining this season - including this match.
It starts to get a bit tricky for a football team and the management staff when owners weigh in with public opinions on the outcome of a game but David Sullivan was not happy after the Hammers flopped last week in a late loss at Bournemouth.
To be fair, Slaven Bilic has been in full agreement and wants to see a positive response from a group of players somewhat stuck in mid-table limbo at the moment but has gone four games without victory and would rather not see the season fizzle out in lame fashion.
I watched the Bournemouth highlights and was scratching my head as to why Sullivan became so annoyed rather than just irritated - plenty of teams this season have conceded a late winner.
The Hammers looked a real threat going forward and the return of Michail Antonio from his one-game suspension gave the Cherries rearguard a constant headache with his pace and willingness to shoot for goal.
Just one win at the London Stadium from their last six outings continues to be a worry for the faithful and champions Leicester, brimful of confidence after a remarkable mini-turnaround in their season, could be an eyecatching price for punters at over 2/1 to take advantage of any lingering malaise.
A bonding session in Dubai and Craig Shakespeare suddenly has them all singing from the same hymn sheet so they will attempt to ride the wave a bit further – it may have got lost in all the euphoria though they are not out the woods yet towards the bottom of the Premier League despite back-to-back victories over Liverpool and Hull.
I don’t quite buy into the view of some observers that the Foxes have recaptured their title-winning best but recent evidence suggests they are not far off and look worth a small bet at the price to transfer all that good recent work to an away fixture.
Prediction: West Ham 1-2 Leicester
Opta facts:
o West Ham have lost as many games against Leicester in their last five (4), as they did in the previous 25 combined (all comps).
o Leicester are unbeaten in five matches in all competitions against West Ham, winning four and drawing one.
o Leicester are two goals away from netting their 500th Premier League goal (498 currently).
o Andy Carroll (49 goals) is one goal away from 50 Premier League goals, with 29 of his goals so far coming in a West Ham shirt.
o Since his debut in September 2012, arroll has appeared in just 94 of West Ham’s 178 Premier League matches (53%) and played just 40% of possible minutes (6472).
o Leicester have won all seven Premier League matches that they have been leading this season and are the only side yet to drop a point from a winning position.
While Leicester have taken the vast majority of headlines following their recent revival, Bournemouth have also displayed some green shoots of recovery in their last two games to halt a downward spiral since the start of the new year.
A dramatic 3-2 triumph over West Ham followed on from a heroic point secured at Old Trafford against Manchester United and they head into this weekend’s televised game as favourites to get the better of Swansea.
Three points separate the duo in what could be a fascinating showdown with both more capable in their respective forward ranks than at the back judged on recent performances.
Bournemouth in particular have the ability to break super-efficiently with speed down either flank and had the Hammers running for cover on numerous occasion before snatching an 11th-hour winner thanks to Josh King’s impressive hat-trick.
There should be more joy in that department up against the visitors, who have improved significantly under Paul Clement but still are some way short of defending to a satisfactory standard at this level.
Twice they were exposed by a moderate Hull City in a hugely disappointing 2-1 defeat as substitute striker Oumar Niasse was gifted a pair of clear-cut openings he did not need to be asked twice to accept.
As a result, I am sure this duo would love to tighten things up considerably but it does not happen overnight and more goals seem extremely likely.
One beneficiary could well be Benik Afobe for the hosts, who missed a host of chances against West Ham, including from the penalty spot, as his confidence seemed to ebb away as each opportunity failed to find the back of the net.
He kept his head down though in a quest to find good positions and manager Eddie Howe would be wise to stick with him as I believe his luck could change in a fixture of this nature with flurries of goalmouth action pretty much a certainty.
Predcition: Bournemouth 2-2 Swansea
Opta facts:
o Bournemouth have scored two or more goals in six of their last seven games against Swansea.
o Swansea have won three of their last six away trips to Bournemouth in all competitions (D1 L2), but did lose this fixture last term 2-3.
o Josh King has scored three goals in three Premier League appearances against the Swans for Bournemouth. King has now scored nine goals in his last 10 Premier League appearances for Bournemouth; more than he’d scored in his previous 48 games in the competition (8).
o Gylfi Sigurdsson has assisted the most goals (11) and has covered more ground (318.2km) than any other player in the Premier League this season.
o Swansea have attempted 313 shots in the Premier League this season and Gylfi Sigurdsson has either attempted (87) or created the chance for (61) 47% of these (148).
o Before Paul Clement was named Swansea manager, the Swans had scored with 9.6% of their shots in the Premier League this season but this has improved to 16.1% since his arrival at the club.
Posted at 1825 GMT on 16/03/17.