Tom Carnduff had three winners last Saturday and is searching for more profit with five best bets for this weekend.
Recommended bets
1pt Conor Gallagher to be shown a card in West Brom v Sheff Utd at 7/2
1pt e.w. Ferran Torres to score first in Man City v Burnley at 15/2
0.5pt Rodrigo Moreno to score from outside the area in Everton v Leeds at 25/1
1pt Jack Harrison to provide an assist in Everton v Leeds at 5/1
1pt Over 11.5 corners in Brighton v Liverpool at 12/5
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
West Brom v Sheffield United
- 20:00 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 8/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 9/5
Despite this being game ten of the Premier League season, it already feels like a significant contest given that both of these sides sit at the bottom end of the table. Draws against Chelsea, Burnley and Brighton have given West Brom three points; Sheffield United prop up the table with a very poor one point from nine games.
The two teams have combined for ten goals across 18 contests and sit in the bottom three when looking at the xG figures. Infogol's model based on performance also has West Brom and Sheffield United in the bottom two, with the hosts taking top spot and the Blades moving up one place.
Can we call this a sack race decider? Potentially, even when we factor in the job that both managers have done up until this point. Whatever the opinion is, the fact remains that at the time of writing, Bilic is the favourite to be the next manager to leave with Wilder second.
It is set to be a close and tight contest. Under 2.5 goals is available at 4/6 and that is just too short to back, even if we believe it will come in here. All of West Brom's last six games have seen under 2.5 goals, while Sheffield United have already seen four 1-0 contests, all of which have gone against them.
Some may have little interest in this game given positions in the table but it will be a fascinating watch to see which side emerges with all three points. It will be close, maybe dull at points (0-0 at half-time is just 6/4), but the significance of this game makes it one of the standout games of the weekend.
Committing to a result is tough but one bet that does stand out is Conor Gallagher to be shown a card at 7/2. He already has two on his tally this season and is heavily involved when it comes to tackles and fouls.
The Chelsea loanee has seen an average of 4.2 tackles per game in his five appearances for the Baggies so far while the foul average over the same period sits at 2.4. This game could best be compared to West Brom's meeting with Fulham - Gallagher had five fouls there and was shown a card.
We shouldn't expect to see loads of cards but Mike Dean's appointment as referee should bring a few. Six of his seven games this season have had 30+ booking points and we could expect the figure to sit around the 30 mark here. In a tight game, which could go either way, it could become scrappy with neither wanting to make a mistake and that should bring fouls.
It feels like a game where the single goal decides it and, while West Brom might edge it, under 1.5 goals at 2/1 looks a better outright option than either of the two prices available on a win. Instead, the best value comes in the 7/2 available on Gallagher to be booked.
Score prediction: West Brom 1-0 Sheffield United (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Best bet: Conor Gallagher to be shown a card at 7/2
Opta facts
- This is the first ever Premier League meeting between West Brom and Sheffield United, the 885th different fixture to be played in the competition.
- Both West Brom and Sheffield United are winless in their nine Premier League games this season, with the Baggies only failing to win any of their first 10 to a league season in 1985-86, and the Blades only doing so in 1990-91.
- If this game between West Brom and Sheffield United finishes level, it will be just the third season in Premier League history that two sides have failed to win any of their opening 10 games, after 2012-13 (Reading and QPR) and 2018-19 (Newcastle and Huddersfield).
- Coming into this weekend’s games, no team has conceded more Premier League goals this season than West Brom (18), while no side has scored fewer than Sheffield United (4).
- Sheffield United are the only side yet to keep a clean sheet in the Premier League this season. They’d kept four shutouts in their first nine games in the competition last season, while only three sides finished the 2019-20 campaign with more clean sheets than the Blades (13).
Brighton v Liverpool
- 12:30 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 4/1 | Draw 16/5 | Away 3/5
Brighton ended their seven-game wait for victory as the outsiders secured all three points in their trip to Villa Park last weekend. Liverpool's injuries have been well documented, but they did still comfortably beat a Leicester side, who offered little, 3-0 at Anfield.
However, that home winning run was ended by Atalanta in the Champions League. At an odds-on price, it's worth backing Liverpool to continue their good form in the Premier League, even with certain players missing.
I've said it before about Brighton, they aren't actually a bad team but need to develop more of a cutting edge. They have a system and a clear possession-based style of playing but they need to work out a way to turn that into goals on a more regular basis. Crucially, it also needs to be an amount that leads to victory.
They have scored in ten competitive fixtures this season but only four of those have ended with a win. They could well find the net here but the better value comes elsewhere and backing a high corner tally - that landed a winner in Brighton's game with Aston Villa last weekend.
We had over 11.5 there and it's 12/5 that we see at least 12 corners here. Liverpool sit joint-top of the corners charts in the Premier League with Villa (59) while Brighton are sixth with 46. The corner balance last week was firmly in favour of Villa and we could expect to see a similar pattern here with Liverpool contributing more.
Brighton have had their fair share against the traditional 'big hitters' this season. They had five away at Tottenham, seven against Manchester United and took more corners than Chelsea. Liverpool meanwhile, have taken at least seven corners in five of their seven competitive away games.
This type of bet relies on the flow of a game but Liverpool still possess a strong attack while Brighton have found a way through some top teams this season. It may not be quite like a basketball game, as witnessed at Villa Park last weekend, but we should still see chances at both ends and the ball deflected behind for corners.
Liverpool have demonstrated that they can cope with their current injury list, even with that defeat in midweek, and it is tough to argue against their odds-on price for victory here. Home league wins are becoming increasingly rare for Brighton, Arsenal in June being their last, so we can expect Liverpool to grab the points.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-2 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Best bet: Over 11.5 corners at 12/5
Opta facts
- Brighton have never won a top-flight home game against Liverpool (D3 L4), losing all three in the Premier League by an aggregate score of 2-9. Indeed, the Seagulls’ only home victory over Liverpool in league competition came in the second tier in January 1961 (3-1).
- Liverpool have won each of their last nine meetings with Brighton in all competitions, netting 27 goals in the process and conceding just seven.
- Following their 2-1 win at Aston Villa last time out, Brighton are looking to pick up back-to-back league wins for the first time since November 2019. However, each of the Seagulls’ last four Premier League wins have been away from home, winning none of their last eight at the Amex Stadium.
- Only Chelsea (22) have scored more Premier League goals than Liverpool (21) this season, with the Reds the only side to score in every game so far this term.
- Liverpool’s Premier League games have seen a league-high 23 goals in the first half so far this season, with the Reds scoring a league-high 12 and conceding a league-high 11 goals before half-time.
Manchester City v Burnley
- 15:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 1/7 | Draw 7/1 | Away 16/1
Manchester City have already beaten Burnley once this season, that coming in the Carabao Cup, and the trend of convincing victories for Pep Guardiola's side in this particular contest should continue on Saturday. City have scored at least three goes in five of their last six meetings with Burnley.
Seven (yes, seven) City players are 6/4 or shorter for a goal anytime here which highlights how goals are expected to flow for the hosts. Despite that 1-0 win over Olympiacos in midweek, the fact is it should have been a lot more with eleven shots on target and an xG figure of 2.59.
However, one player who does stand out and provides good value is Ferran Torres. He is 15/2 to net first, which takes his anytime odds to 5/2 on the each-way. Considering how short the prices are elsewhere, backing the forward to strike first is where the best value can be found.
It's always difficult getting decent prices in any game where one side is so heavily fancied but Torres is overpriced based on his showings so far. He is yet to score in the Premier League but saw a combined nine total shots in recent contests against Tottenham and Sheffield United.
He has netted in his three Champions League starts and, while he missed out in that trip to Greece on Wednesday, should return to the starting XI for this game. He has demonstrated an ability to play in any of the three forward spots in this City side and that will be a big positive for Guardiola.
Torres is due a Premier League goal and taking on struggling Burnley, where City have historically done very well, provides a great chance to do just that. The Clarets concede an average of 12.4 shots per game in the Premier League, we can expect that figure to be much higher at the Etihad.
It feels like roulette trying to pick this starting City side but we can expect some of those on the bench on Wednesday to start here, that list includes Torres and perhaps Kyle Walker. At 15/2, against a team who have conceded plenty this season, the forward provides the best value.
This one is probably one to avoid in the outright market on the prices alone but if we are searching for an option, there would be little issue in taking City on the -2 handicap at 7/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power. They have history on their side in this fixture and the midweek showing reminded us of their attacking threat.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bet: Ferran Torres to score first at 15/2 e.w.
Opta facts
- Manchester City have won their last six meetings with Burnley in all competitions by an aggregate score of 23-1.
- Burnley have won just one of their 12 Premier League meetings with Man City (D3 L8), beating them 1-0 in March 2015. The Clarets have shipped more Premier League goals against the Citizens than they have versus any other side (34).
- At home, Man City have won their last six meetings with Burnley by an aggregate score of 24-2, winning each of the last three by a 5-0 scoreline. In the history of the Football League, only Notts County have won four successive home games by 5+ goals against a specific opponent (all competitions), doing so against Port Vale between October 1893 and February 1907.
- Manchester City are averaging 15.7 shots and 5.3 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, while they have a shot conversion rate of just 8% - all the lowest they’ve managed in a single campaign under Pep Guardiola so far.
- Manchester City have won 19 of their last 21 Premier League games kicking off at 3pm on a Saturday, with their two exceptions in that run coming against Crystal Palace (2-3 in December 2018, 2-2 in January 2020).
Everton v Leeds
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 19/20 | Draw 14/5 | Away 5/2
This could easily be the most entertaining game of the weekend. High scorers Everton and Leeds meet at Goodison Park in a game that promises goals. Marcelo Bielsa's side have a clear attacking philosophy while Everton's front three have been more than eye-catching.
Bielsa's arrival in the Premier League caused much excitement and Leeds have not disappointed. Their position in the table (14th) doesn't tell the full story, and in all honesty you look at points at this stage rather than positions. Since the 4-3 thriller at Anfield on opening day, only once has Leeds' xG figure dropped below 1.0 (0.96 v Crystal Palace). Bielsa was also nominated for FIFA's Men's Coach of the Year award - that is how good the job has been at Elland Road.
Everton have conceded two or more goals in seven Premier League contests this season, while they have failed to keep a clean sheet since back-to-back shutouts against Tottenham and Salford in the first week. However, the Toffees have scored 19 and sit on a positive goal difference.
Leeds battered Arsenal last weekend. They hit the woodwork three times while Bernd Leno pulled off a number of great saves to keep them out. One player who should have scored was Rodrigo, he struck the bar with a wonderful effort from distance.
With Pablo Hernandez out through injury, Rodrigo should return to the starting XI having featured from the bench last time out. He scored against Manchester City and loves taking shots. His last five appearances for Leeds, three of which have been as a sub, have seen at least three shots in each.
Two of those shots against Arsenal came from outside the area, cutting onto his left foot and looking to find the far corner. Before that, his shots from outside the box rate was two from four against Villa and two from three against Sheffield United. Given how weak this Everton defence can be, he should enjoy a few more efforts here.
We're not looking for a 40-yard screamer, just one shot from near the D finding the net. That will be his most effective area and Rodrigo will score on multiple occasions from this area during his Leeds career. At 25/1, it's worth a small play on the Spanish international scoring from distance.
Elsewhere, Leeds could enjoy some success down Everton's right-hand side and that could mean an assist for Jack Harrison. The winger has two on his tally but could exploit a lack of tracking back from the hosts and grab another helper here. Betfair provide the best price of 5/1 on this happening.
Alex Keble's excellent tactical preview highlighted James Rodriguez's issue with tracking back and Everton's change in formation looked to address that. Whether they will stick with that or not remains to be seen, but Leeds can capitalise if he leaves spaces to attack.
Everton are odds-on for success here but I love the unpredictability that Leeds bring to the table. They look like they can beat anyone but have also been hammered on a couple of occasions too. Goals look decent value, with over 3.5 out there at 17/10, but sitting on the fence and taking a draw looks a decent outright option.
Score prediction: Everton 2-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bet: Rodrigo Moreno to score from outside the area at 25/1
Best bet: Jack Harrison to provide an assist at 5/1
Opta facts
- Everton are unbeaten in their last 13 top-flight home games against Leeds (W6 D7) since a 2-3 loss in August 1990. Indeed, in the Premier League, Everton have only faced Fulham at Goodison Park more often without defeat (14) than they have Leeds (12).
- Leeds won their last meeting with Everton in all competitions, winning 2-1 in a League Cup tie in September 2012. Their last league victory against the Toffees came in December 2001 (D2 L3 since).
- In their first four Premier League games this season, Leeds had 45 shots (11.3 per game), scoring nine goals for a conversion rate of 20%. In their last five league games, they’ve had 85 shots (17 per game), but have scored just five goals (6% conversion rate).
- Everton goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has conceded 14 Premier League goals this season (excl. own goals), around four more than would be expected based on the quality of the shots on target he’s faced (xGoT), the biggest negative difference for a keeper in the competition this season.
- Patrick Bamford has scored in all four of Leeds’ Premier League away games this season - in the history of the competition, only Thierry Henry at Arsenal in 2001-02 has scored in each of his side’s first five games on the road in a single season.
Odds correct at 1530 GMT (26/11/20)
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