Can Sergio Ageuro (l) and Gabriel Jesus fire Man City to the title?

Football betting tips: Premier League Golden Boot preview for the 2017/18 season

Football

Thu August 10, 2017 · 7y ago

Ben Coley is expecting fireworks from Manchester City's attacking options as he takes on favourite Harry Kane in the Golden Boot betting.

Recommended bets: 2017/18 Premier League Golden Boot

2.5pts Sergio Aguero at 7/1 - with the bit between his teeth and granted a clean bill of health, expect 25+ from one of the division's all-time performers

2pts Gabriel Jesus at 9/1 - hit the ground running last season and with that behind him, looks set to form a deadly partnership with Aguero

1pt e.w. Sadio Mane at 40/1 - stop-start campaign in 2016/17 but more now expected from the left side of a strong Liverpool attack

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With form figures of 2-1-1, 75 goals spread across three seasons of top-class consistency, some of the best supply lines in the Premier League and on the back of a comfortable success in 2016/17, Harry Kane is the most likely winner of the Golden Boot.

The Spurs striker isn’t just the man to topple having come up only one shy of 30 last season - he is also improving and at a rate we can measure. If Kane’s current sequence of 21-25-29 extends to 33, he will be next to impossible to beat – no player has reached that figure since Alan Shearer in 1995.

But there is a problem and it’s one you’ll grow weary of reading about, particularly if you happen to be a Tottenham fan: the move from White Hart Lane to Wembley.

Seventeen of Kane’s 29 goals last season came at the Lane, and seven of the 12 he scored elsewhere came across those two absurd end-of-season carnivals at Leicester and Hull, where Spurs won 6-1 and 7-1.

They all count, of course, but Kane found the net in just six away games in the Premier League last season, down from 10 in each of the previous two. His record at White Hart Lane was on the other hand sensational, and it’s far from certain he’ll maintain it now running out at Wembley.

Of course, Kane ended last season captaining England and it’s possible that he raises his own extraordinarily high levels in front of crowds more than twice the size of the Lane. But to top the Golden Boot charts he’ll need Spurs to continue to function as a unit and there are sufficient doubts to overlook him at just 100/30.

Indeed, at a slightly bigger price we can get both Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus on-side, so my advice is to dutch the two Manchester City attackers at a combined 7/2.

Aguero’s goals-per-minute ratio was bettered only by Kane and Olivier Giroud last year when it comes to the division’s highest scorers, and the feeling is he’s a clean bill of health away from repeating his comfortable success of 2014/15.

There may be some who are concerned that he’s not at the absolute forefront of Pep Guardiola’s plans, but I don’t see it that way. With talk of a move for Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez cooling, Aguero seems likely to feature alongside Jesus in what could prove to be one of the most devastating partnerships in Premier League history.

That might seem over the top, but the way Aguero responded to adversity last season suggests he’s going to begin this one with the hunger to pick up where he left off, having scored 15 goals in his final 17 games of the previous campaign.

That came after Jesus had marked his arrival with three in five days in early February, all scored while Aguero watched on from the bench. At the time this felt like the start of a transition of power, one which would end with Aguero elsewhere for 2017/18 and Jesus leading the line.

But Jesus then broke his foot, which allowed Aguero to win over his new manager with a series of hard-running, often match-winning displays. Reportedly, Guardiola wanted to see the Aguero of old – the one who was tireless in his work, so much more than the fox-in-the-box he had become under Manuel Pellegrini – and that’s exactly what Kun produced.

As a result, when Jesus made his first start following a break of six weeks, it was alongside Aguero – and both found the net at Middlesbrough. They would go on to start the final two games of the season as a partnership and again, each man contributed. Across these three games, the pair shared six goals equally in what must serve as a warning to City’s title rivals, more specifically their defences.

It’s also worth noting that Aguero should be fresher than ever before having been left out of Argentina’s squad for the Confederations Cup, the first time he’s been without international football over the summer in five years.

Not only does that mean he’s been involved from day one of pre-season but, with a World Cup next summer, there are people to impress – fans and coaching staff – when it comes to representing his country again.

Aguero, the best striker in Premier League history if your primary measure is goals-per-minute, looks primed to remind everyone of his quality.

Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus

Another factor in his favour is the creative influences across the City midfield, in particular the outstanding Kevin de Bruyne who provided more assists than any other player in the top flight last season.

With Bernardo Silva having arrived from Monaco and more yet to come from the impressive Leroy Sane, this is a devastating side in the making and I can see both Aguero and Jesus comfortably topping 20 goals.

Unlike Romelu Lukaku, Alvaro Morata and Alexandre Lacazette, Jesus has nothing to adapt to this year and the benefit of his 2016/17 sighter should not be underestimated.

The Brazilian scored a goal every 92 minutes across 10 interrupted Premier League appearances from January to May, a record comparable with Kane’s, and there should be so much more to come with that under his belt.

His potential is limitless – world-record breaker Neymar labels Jesus as one of the most skilful players he’s ever shared a pitch with – but what most impressed during his early foray into the Premier League was his ability to engineer and then take a chance.

That wasn’t lost on Guardiola, but the Spaniard made clear during the latter months of the season that Jesus can operate anywhere across his attack, whether that be from the wing where he built his reputation in Brazil or, most tantalisingly, just in front of Aguero in the centre.

The concern with backing both is that they share the burden, not just in terms of minutes on the pitch but goals scored.

However, that’s allayed by the mouthwatering prospect of Aguero and Jesus quickly confirming what they hinted at towards the end of last season: that together, as a partnership, they have the potential to fire City to the title.

Backing both against Kane looks worthwhile as I firmly expect one of the three to top the charts, and I would much rather rely on City and their almost guaranteed improvement than chance Spurs coping with upheaval.

Should Guardiola choose to deploy one as his preferred league option and the other in Europe, so be it: right now they are both chalked up bigger than they would be were plans known. If and when they become clearer, we'll have the Premier League man on side with an outstanding back-up.

Lukaku makes limited appeal at the odds, despite the fact that he almost won the Golden Boot while at Everton last season and now plays for a side expected by many to challenge for the title.

However, Manchester United have not addressed some pressing issues, particularly a lack of creativity which put so much weight on the shoulders of Zlatan Ibrahimovic last season, and the Belgian may struggle to match the 25 he scored in blue. Certainly, Lukaku looks underpriced at 4/1.

With Morata and Lacazette experiencing Premier League football for the first time and the future of Sanchez still in some doubt, there’s some temptation to add to the staking plan with an each-way selection given that four places are on offer.

Jermain Defoe has to be tempting at 66/1, given that like Aguero he’ll be highly motivated with a World Cup looming and now returns to free-flowing Bournemouth having bagged 15 goals for a desperate Sunderland side last season.

A similar case can be made for Christian Benteke, who scored 15 for Crystal Palace and is a 50/1 chance, but it’s over 15 years since a player from outside the eventual top four won the Golden Boot and we’d be playing for a place at best with either option.

That isn’t necessarily the case with Sadio Mane, who could find the necessary improvement to get competitive as part of a Liverpool side who certainly have top-four aspirations.

Mane scored 13 goals last season and was voted Liverpool’s player of the year, but the combination of his month-long trip to the African Cup of Nations and an injury which ended his season at the beginning of April meant Golden Boot backers were perhaps a little hard done by.

The Senegalese returned to the Liverpool side to find the net against Bayern in pre-season and it seems Jurgen Klopp is keen to employ him from the left, rather than the right, which certainly sparked improvement against the German champions and brought back memories of his days at Southampton.

Mane’s link-up play with new signing Mo Salah (66/1) was really promising and while it’s 50/1 shot Roberto Firmino who looks set to play through the middle, the real threat from Liverpool could come from Mane out left and Salah to the right.

Losing Philippe Coutinho from in behind this trio would of course be a major blow but it’s still quite easy to envisage Mane stepping up considerably in what will be his second season at Anfield, having shown how deadly he can be in bursts.

While backing a player who is not an out-an-out striker comes with obvious risks, Mane has the instinctive quality of a genuine number nine and is expected to be key to Liverpool’s prospects this season.

At 40/1 and with four places on offer, he’s strongly fancied to lead the way for the Reds and that should put him in right the conversation.

Posted at 0715 BST on 08/08/17.

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