Premier League review: Man Utd's away record, "dominant" Lukaku, Michail Antonio steals show
Our analyst Liam Kelly reviews the Premier League action from a data perspective, highlighting points of interest from the second weekend of matches.
The aim of this weekly column is to provide standout stats from each round of fixtures, use underlying numbers to identify recent trends and to inform punters with tools to improve their betting on the Premier League.
Norwich a non-factor
I guess old habits do, in fact, die hard. The curious consensus that Norwich were better equipped for Premier League football — despite a weaker squad this time around — appear to be wide of the mark, proving to be uncompetitive thus far.
Granted, Daniel Farke's side were dealt a raw deal by the fixture generator, facing Liverpool and Manchester City in their opening two matches, but the lack of enterprise shown by the Canaries last time out is concerning.
Norwich recorded only one single shot in the 5-0 defeat at the Etihad, a speculative 78th-minute Milot Rashica effort with an xG total of just 0.11 xG.
Damage limitation is certainly a concept used by some teams when visiting City, but Norwich were only two goals down at the hour mark, hardly a game state that requires you to retreat and save face.
Farke's side need to be more adventurous if they want to stay in the top tier.
United match Premier League away record
Manchester United equalled Arsenal's 2004 record of 27 Premier League away games unbeaten following their 1-1 draw with Southampton at St Mary's on Sunday.
Matching a benchmark set by the 'Invincibles' is undoubtedly impressive, but there are times when the feat looked extremely unlikely. Especially last season, with United forced to mount multiple comebacks on the road, gaining 28 points from losing positions away from home.
Ole Gunnar Solskjær's side haven't posted exceptional underlying metrics during the run, either, holding a +15.4 expected goal difference (xGD). United's overperformance in those games (+31 actual goal difference) only adds to the improbability of tying Arsenal's record.
Infogol's model generates post-match win probabilities from the xG created and conceded in a match, which gives us the ability to assess how unlikely their achievement is from a data perspective.
Using those numbers, we can ascertain that United's chances of the 27-game unbeaten run were a massive 9677/1.
"Dominant" Lukaku
When asked to describe his display in Chelsea's comfortable 2-0 win over Arsenal, Romelu Lukaku's response was both direct and accurate: "Dominant".
Lukaku toyed with the Arsenal defence on his 'second debut' in what was an extraordinary performance, more than value for his Man of the Match award.
The Belgian manoeuvred himself into excellent scoring positions, netting once from chances equating to 1.58 xG. Only a stunning save from Bernd Leno denied Lukaku a brace.
Leno was also there to stop Lukaku from recording an assist, making a smart save from Kai Havertz's shot after a deft feed from Chelsea's star man.
His three key passes and 0.48 expected assists (xA) total further enhance the idea that Lukaku has returned to the Premier League as a complete player. A striker capable of breaking down opponents in a myriad of ways. A remedy for Chelsea's greatest shortcoming.
Antonio steals the show
What a night for Michail Antonio.
He surpassed Paolo di Canio as the club's record goalscorer in the Premier League, bagging a brace that vaulted him to the top of this season's scoring charts and lifted the Hammers to the top of the table.
West Ham's new number nine was hailed as "different class" by David Moyes after his outstanding display in a 4-1 win, carving out scoring opportunities equating to a total of 1.29 xG — a trait the striker has continued to show following an excellent 2020/21 campaign.
Antonio led the Premier League in non-penalty xG per 95 minutes with more than 2000 minutes played last season, a fantastic achievement considering the names below him in that metric.
Ultimately, he was disappointed with his return of ten goals from 12.49 xG last term after struggling with injuries. If he can stay fit, a very productive season could be on the cards for Antonio.
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