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Premier League restart

Premier League restart betting tips: Relegation preview and best bets for 22-23 season

By Jake Osgathorpe
Football
Mon December 26, 2022 · 2y ago

With the Premier League set to restart on Boxing Day, Jake Osgathorpe takes a look at the wrong end of the table, selecting some bets in the process.

Football betting tips: Premier League relegation

5pts Wolves to stay up at 4/5 (General)

2.5pts Nottingham Forest to stay up at 6/4 (General)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Readers of our pre-season relegation preview will be liking the way the Premier League is shaping up.

Tom Carnduff's selections are looking good, with Bournemouth just six points off the foot of the table and ranking as the worst team in the league according to expected goals, Southampton, who were taken at 16/5, in the drop zone, and 5/1 Everton just a point above the relegation places.

Things are looking good, as mentioned, but the scene has changed and there is yet more value to be had in the market, well maybe not the actual 'to be relegated' market, but at the bottom of the table nonetheless.

Premier League 22/23 relegation odds (via Sky Bet)

  • 4/7 - Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest
  • Evs - Wolves
  • 13/8 - Southampton
  • 7/4 - Everton
  • 4/1 - Leeds
  • 15/2 - Fulham
  • 9/1 - Leicester, West Ham

Odds correct at 1930 (16/12/22)

Wolves to turn fortunes around

Firstly, I have to say that the relegation betting is fascinating.

Nottingham Forest head the betting despite sitting third from bottom, followed closely by 14th-placed Bournemouth.

I don't think the Cherries have enough quality to survive, and don't rate the managerial appointment of keeping Gary O'Neil in the job. Their underlying numbers are appalling, averaging 0.94 xGF and 1.81 xGA per game, and unless there is a remarkable upturn in that process, Bournemouth can be expected to finish in the bottom three.

Wolves currently prop up the table and are four points from safety, but there is plenty of reason to be optimistic given the appointment of the impressive Julen Lopetegui, and the quality of their squad.

They are priced around the even money mark to drop into the Championship, which seems too short to me, so taking the 4/5 on offer for WOLVES TO STAY UP appeals greatly.

Despite sitting bottom of the table, the Old Gold have ranked as the 12th best team in the league based on expected points (xP), and while performances in general haven't been great from an attacking perspective (1.11 xGF per game), defensively they have been solid, allowing 1.45 xGA per game which ranks as the eighth best process in the league.

Lopetegui has generally done his best work with 'lesser sides', or in better words, not 'big teams'. He consistently got Sevilla punching above their financial weight in La Liga, leading them to a hat-trick of fourth place finishes and a Europa League trophy.

Now, I'm not saying he's going to do the same with Wolves straight away, but he has the capability with this group of players to get them climbing the table, and just on the appointment alone I'd be happy to back them to stay up this term.

There is the added wildcard of the club spending money in January in a bid to ensure survival, which has to be seen as a positive when backing Wolves to survive.

The team has real potential under Lopetegui to get back to what they were under Nuno Espirito Santo, so I think the only way is up for them.

Forest to pull up trees

This one may surprise people, but I'm actually going to back the team who are the shortest price to be relegated, to STAY UP.

NOTTINGHAM FOREST were written off by many after a poor start to the season, but the signs are there that they have turned a corner.

My opinion of Forest this season was that they would find life tough at the start due to the sheer number of new signings that needed integrating, and the difficult schedule they were dealt.

Ultimately though, I thought they would get things right and survive, with the quality they had signed in the summer more than good enough to keep them in the Premier League when they had fully gelled.

The World Cup break can only have helped Steve Cooper and his backroom staff do just that, and confidence is high that they can avoid the drop.

They are just a point from safety currently, so aren't exactly cut adrift, and went into the break having won two and drawn two of their last five. Three of those games came against teams currently in the top seven, and their performances against the two teams not in the upper echelons were good, especially defensively which has been their main area of weakness.

Cooper's side will continue to improve as players become more familiar with each other, and they shouldn't be the biggest priced team in the 'to stay up' market.

Who will be relegated from the Premier League?

So who will go down then?

I think Southampton could be in major trouble, with Ralph Hasenhuttl replaced by Nathan Jones, and while I rate Jones as a manager, he is a downgrade on the Austrian.

Their squad is talented, but both inexperienced and lacking depth, so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Saints relegated. They have also performed like a serious relegation candidate too, sitting 17th on the xG table.

Everton's manager Frank Lampard is the favourite to be the next manager sacked, which tells you everything you need to know about how their season is going.

Based on expected points (xP), the Toffees have been the third worst team in the league, and their metrics need to take a turn for the better if they are to pull clear again.

West Ham sit 16th and should be fine given the quality they have in their squad, a savvy manager in David Moyes, and the top-eight level underlying numbers.

Leeds are one place above the Hammers and I've seen enough to think they will be able to navigate to safety this season, though the same can't be said for Bournemouth.

At this stage of the season, Bournemouth, Southampton and Everton are the three teams I think will be relegated, and if you agree, there is 33/1 available on the treble with William Hill.

Premier League 22/23 relegation best bets

  • 5pts Wolves to stay up at 4/5 (General)
  • 2.5pts Nottingham Forest to stay up at 6/4 (General)

Odds correct at 1945 (16/12/22)

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