Premier League relegation odds and fixtures as Burnley & Leeds battle for survival
Burnley and Leeds are battling for survival in the Premier League. Jake Osgathorpe has all you need to know for the relegation fight, including a data dive into both sides.
On average, over the past 10 seasons, 35 points has been enough to retain your spot in England's top-flight, with no side going higher than that across the past five campaigns.
Everton pulled well clear of that total in midweek when beating Crystal Palace to secure their Premier League status, meaning it's between Burnley and Leeds for the final relegations place.
Leeds moved back into the relegation zone after Burnley drew at Aston Villa, with the Clarets having a far superior goal difference to the Whites and know they will survive if they match Leeds' result on Sunday.
Jake Osgathorpe assesses the teams fighting to avoid joining Norwich and Watford in the Championship.
Current Premier League table
17. Burnley | Played: 37 | Points: 35 | Goal Difference: -18
18. Leeds | Played: 37 | Points: 35 | Goal Difference: -38
Will Leeds be relegated?
- Leeds remaining fixtures - Sunday, May 22: Brentford (A)
- Infogol % chance of relegation: 72.4%
Leeds are in the bottom three heading into the last day of the season, and know they have to better Burnley's result to have any chance of staying in the division.
Jesse Marsch hasn't done anything wrong since his appointment, despite Leeds finding themselves in the current predicament.
The Whites have picked up 12 points from a possible 33, but have played three of the top five in that time, and even if we include those games their underlying process has been at a level we have come to expect from Leeds over the last few years (1.51 xGF, 1.59 xGA per game).
Exclude those three games, and against 'the rest' under Marsch they have averaged 1.78 xGF and 1.36 xGA per game - that process is very good, and if that level is hit on Sunday, it wouldn't be a surprise to see them beat Brentford.
All in all, the Whites have performed like a mid-table team under their American coach. He couldn't have really done much more.
The Infogol model gives the Whites a 23% chance of winning at Brentford on the final day, and a 44% chance of avoiding defeat, meaning more likely than not they will need Burnley to slip up drastically if they are to survive.
How much have Burnley improved?
- Burnley remaining fixtures: Sunday, May 22: Newcastle (H)
- Infogol % chance of relegation: 27.6%
Burnley's draw at Aston Villa on Thursday means they are outside the relegation places heading into the final day, and know they will survive if they equal or better Leeds' result.
They were well-beaten by Tottenham at the weekend, generating just 0.64 xGF in a second successive defeat, but the 1-1 draw at Villa was more like what we have come to see from Mike Jackson's side, who created the better of the chances (xG: AVL 1.23 - 1.88 BUR).
In total, the Clarets have generated an average of 1.68 xGF per game since sacking Sean Dyche. Over the 30 games under Dyche they averaged 1.09 xGF per game, so we have seen an upturn due to a more attack-minded approach.
Only in games against West Ham (2.86 xGA) and Tottenham (2.34) - two of the top seven - have Burnley looked exposed defensively, allowing 1.22 xGA per game across their other five fixtures, so all the signs are there that they are a better side post-Dyche.
A hosting of a Newcastle side fresh from a 2-0 win over Arsenal will be tough, but, if Burnley continue doing what they have been doing against 'the rest', then they should pick up points.