Tom Carnduff looks at the main talking points, trends and future best bets from the weekend's Premier League action.
Arsenal's near-perfect derby preparation?
Arsenal may have been held to a 1-1 draw in their trip to Burnley on Saturday, but the huge number of clear opportunities they created for victory will give them confidence as they head into the North London derby against Tottenham next weekend.
Granit Xhaka's mistake proved costly as he lifted the ball into Chris Wood and the Clarets forward directed the ball in from close range. However, for the large parts of the second-half they were comfortable and should have taken all three points on offer.
Mikel Arteta's men finished the game with an Infogol expected goals figure of 2.76. They struck the woodwork and had a clear handball penalty shout denied, and one that somehow survived the VAR check, while the Burnley defence also made some fantastic blocks.
Nicolas Pepe is a name to consider in the anytime goalscorer market. He netted in the recent win over Leicester and should have scored at Turf Moor. Despite coming off the bench in the 69th minute, the winger had two big chances and finished with an xG figure of 0.81.
Bukayo Saka unusual lack of composure saw him have an xG rate of 0.83 from four shots but no goal to his name. Like Pepe, he can draw some confidence from his performance and may represent value to strike against Spurs.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Conor Coady value in goalscorer market?
Conor Coady's life in the Premier League has been one with little attacking output. That was until Wolves' trip to Manchester City where he grabbed his first goal with his first shot on target in his third campaign in top-flight football with the club.
The game against Aston Villa brought two shots with Emi Martinez denying him a second goal in as many games. Wolves' next game sees them host an out-of-form Liverpool side, with huge odds available for Coady to score anytime across the 90 minutes.
The Reds' defensive problems are well documented and they keep sliding down the Premier League table. Manchester City will take their title off them and it's now a battle to ensure that Champions League football returns to Anfield next season.
Coady finished the Villa game with an expected goals figure of 0.99, that was near-enough half of Wolves' 2-0 from the entire contest, they were denied by some superb goalkeeping and enjoyed the better of the chances.
Betfair and Paddy Power have 33/1 available on Coady scoring anytime on Monday, while 75/1 is on offer for that goal being the first one of the game. Given his recent performances, that is a value play.
Baggies can continue gaining points
West Brom near-enough need a miracle to survive at the stage. With ten games remaining of the campaign, they are eight points adrift of Brighton and Newcastle, although both of those teams hold a game in-hand.
However, they have seen a number of good opportunities to score across recent weeks, with their expected goals figure often higher than that of their opponents. Recent draws with Burnley, Manchester United and Newcastle all saw the Baggies win the xG battle.
It's just converting the chances that come their way. Even in the 1-0 home defeat to Everton, Sam Allardyce's side again posted a higher xG figure. While the final score is the one that ultimately matters, it does show that they aren't necessarily playing as badly as their current position suggests.
Saturday takes them to a Crystal Palace side who were comfortably beaten by Tottenham last time out. They may have picked up draws against Fulham and Manchester United but they remain unconvincing this season.
Multiple bookmakers have West Brom priced up at 11/4 to win this game, with Palace a much shorter 21/20. Even the double chance in the Baggies' favour is 8/11, which could be worth inclusion in any Saturday accumulators. Conflicting recent performances highlight that the prices are far too generous.
Who will be relegated from the Premier League?
While Fulham, Sheffield United and West Brom have been the three main teams in the relegation market throughout the season, Sunday's results saw the odds change drastically as we approach the crucial point of the campaign.
Since the full-time whistle blew at Wembley, Fulham have always been among the three front-runners for the drop. Scott Parker's men were backed further during their poor start to the campaign but they have turned things around and now have a good chance of survival.
While there are a few teams looking to avoid that 18th spot, the one who looks in real danger is Newcastle. Steve Bruce's side have won just two of their last 18 games in all competitions - 12 of those have ended in defeat.
Brighton are also level on points but their performances have given hope that they will survive. The problem for them remains converting the numerous chances they create but it's preferable to be in that position than the one of Newcastle who are struggling to provide a threat.
Newcastle are now Evens to be relegated back to the Sky Bet Championship. Fulham are a more comfortable 15/8 and Brighton are 4/1. To boost those odds, Sky Bet's 'Sheffield Utd Bottom, West Brom 2nd, Newcastle 3rd' relegation straight treble pays out at 5/2 which looks a much preferable option.
Odds correct at 0830 GMT (08/03/21)
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