Free football betting tips: Premier League Punting Pointers for matchday 15

Why aren't Manchester City scoring more?

This might look like a bizarre thing to be writing about given that Pep Guardiola's side thrashed Arsenal 4-1 in the last eight of the Carabao Cup on Tuesday, but it really has been a huge issue for them in 2020/21.

Are they not scoring because they're focused more on defending, or are they focused more on defending because they're not scoring? A classic footballing chicken or egg paradox.

For what it's worth, I would be inclined to go with the latter. Guardiola has solved many of his side's defensive shortcomings through excellent recruitment, and now that they have significant strength in central defence it has become something to rely upon during tight matches.

Unlike for most teams, once upon a time it was actually pragmatic for City to push hard for a second goal late in games because they simply couldn't be certain that they'd be able to hold out for a clean sheet to win 1-0.

That is most certainly not the case now, and the goals will eventually return for Guardiola's side. They already have in fact, with a thumping 4-1 win at Arsenal in the last eight of the Carabao Cup on Tuesday night.

In the Premier League it's just 14 goals in their past 11 fixtures. Despite that, they are still 2/5 to beat Newcastle with over 2.5 goals on Boxing Day.

City are 1/7 to win that game, but the win to nil option boosts it astonishingly to 5/6 with Betfair. They have kept seven clean sheets in their last nine games in all competitions, and only been breached eight times in their past 19 matches.

That price is completely ridiculous.

Are Brighton going down?

Look at the Premier League table, their recent results and their shortening relegation odds - Brighton are slipping dangerously close to the bottom three. Graham Potter's side are now 17th and just two points above the relegation zone having won only once in 13 games in all competitions.

While they're priced significantly shorter than a few weeks ago, Sky Bet still has them at 4/1 for the drop, with five teams - Sheffield United, West Brom, Fulham, Burnley and Newcastle - considered more likely to be a Championship club next season.

And bookmakers are no mugs.

Anecdotally, Albion have played well in near enough every match this season. They look like a good team and they try and play good football. Crucially though, it's not just to the naked eye that Brighton are performing well.

The underlying numbers suggest they ought to be much better off as we approach the season's halfway mark. Infogol's performance-based table, quite incredibly, has them sitting fifth - 12 places above their actual league position.

Just looking at Albion's last five results, three have been 'unfair' in terms of xG (Expected Goals). Both Sunday's draw with Sheffield United and their 1-1 against Liverpool last month were landslides in their favour in that respect. They even comfortably bettered Southampton in a 2-1 home defeat.

They don't take enough of their chances, pure and simple, but as long as they keep creating them then that will surely turn. It's important to stick with them, and if there's a high value punt on offer, to take it.

Brighton are outsiders for their Boxing Day trip to West Ham and the following game at home to Arsenal. Keep an eye on just how big the prices get.

Leeds' set-piece defending non-existent

Leeds have conceded more set-piece goals (14) than any other Premier League team this season. That stat is slightly souped up as it includes penalties, but take spot-kicks out and Marcelo Bielsa's team are still easily top of the charts at the Christmas.

There is absolutely no sign of that weakness being fixed either; if anything Leeds are getting worse.

Without doubt, that is in part due to opposition targeting it as area they can exploit the 2019/20 Sky Bet Championship winners, but an additional problem for Bielsa has been the constant injuries at centre-back that have made it increasingly difficult to address the issue.

I really do worry for Leeds at free-kicks and corners in their next two outings, although worry is a strong word because I'll be backing an opposing central defender to find the net - it has happened in each of their last four games.

Following the success of Kurt Zouma, Angelo Ogbonna, Ciaran Clark and Victor Lindelof, I wouldn't hesitate in splitting my stake to back Burnley's James Tarkowski (45/1) and Ben Mee (60/1) on Sunday, and the likely pairing of Semi Ajayi (30/1) and Branislav Ivanovic (28/1) for West Brom a few days later.

Those first goalscorer prices are astonishing against this Leeds team, and all the more valuable when Sean Dyche and Sam Allardyce are two of the most set-piece dedicated managers in the Premier League.

Look out for the bet365 and Sky Bet each-way odds, which pay out to 98 and 99 places respectively and let's hope Bielsa doesn't get the Leeds squad in on Christmas Day for 12 hours worth of defensive dog work.

That's not how 'Bielsa Ball' works, we're fine.

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