Free football betting tips: Premier League Punting Pointers for matchday 11

Penalties back on the menu

Deep breath... after one weekend (one!) that offered a glimmer of hope, the Premier League's seemingly insatiable appetite to deliver an inordinate number of penalties in 2020/21 is firmly back on track.

It's quite frightening that four spot-kicks in a round of fixtures is now considered a quiet weekend. But that would still average out to more than 150 over the course of a full campaign - the current record is 106.

There have been 98 fixtures so far, and 46 penalties. That results in this campaign heading for a considerable 178.

What was most deflating about matchday 10 was the obvious shift from the previous round of fixtures. From two penalties being overturned by VAR, to two penalties being given by the technology.

At least in betting terms we now know where we stand.

I must add that defenders are far from blameless in all of this. I cannot offer a concrete cause, but there are most certainly more late and rash challenges being made in the 18-yard box this season.

Christian Fuchs, Neco Williams and Declan Rice were all 100% to blame. Even Andy Robertson could be accused of being reckless as he sought to hack the ball clear in the dying moments against Brighton.

Where penalties were an extra avenue for a team to score, they are now twice as likely to receive one. That makes penalty-takers absolute gold dust in the goalscorer markets.

Simply backing a spot-kick to be awarded is close to 50/50 without even considering the fixture. Throw in a little common sense and you can beat the odds.

I promise to keep this to just one paragraph. VAR took another starring role this weekend, intervening in more than a third of matches - with assistants now deliberately not giving marginal offsides, backing VAR to overturn a decision is worth a punt in any game that it is expected to be all-action.

Chelsea v Leeds, Brighton v Southampton, and Liverpool v born-again Wolves all spring out - the latter brings us on nicely to the next pointer.

Wolves gain some extra bite

It is with a heavy heart that I retire Wolves as the under 2.5 kings, for now at least.

After a run of 20 from 23, they only just went bust by winning 2-1 at Arsenal, but even if that match had involved fewer than three goals I would be writing exactly the same things. Their victory at the Emirates on Sunday was overshadowed by Raul Jimenez suffering a fractured skull, which quite rightly took most of the focus.

Even before Jimenez's injury, Wolves lined up in a 4-3-3 - as they did against Southampton the previous week in what at the time looked like it could be a one-off. However, after three-and-a-half years of playing wing-backs under Nuno Espirito Santo they didn't get to grips with the formation change until midway through the second half.

They played with an attacking swagger that has been sorely lacking this season, and is backed up by their Expected Goals (xG) numbers. Their 2.01 against Arsenal and 1.57 against Saints were the first time they have posted xG figures of over 1.50 since the opening day of the season.

Only once during Project Restart did they go above 2.00, and that was more down to their opponents - Everton captain Seamus Coleman publicly lambasted his team-mates for their appalling lack of effort in that 3-0 defeat.

A man who is sure to be crucial for Wolves during Jimenez's absence is Pedro Neto.

While the much-vaunted Jimenez-Adama Traore axis has attracted attention, Neto and Daniel Podence have slowly exerted a growing influence on Nuno's team. It's no shock that he has scored in three successive games for club and country, and Podence has two in his last four Wolves appearances.

And yet both are 13/1 to score first and 4/1 and bigger to find the net anytime next time out.

Some of that can be explained by the fact the Old Gold head to Anfield on Sunday, but Liverpool have kept only two clean sheets in 10 league games this season.

They are eyecatching prices.

Chelsea goal-shy against the best

For most, Chelsea's goalless draw with Tottenham on Sunday was a couple of hours stolen away that they'll never get back. For others, it was oddly satisfying.

Under 2.5 goals was trading at 5/4 ahead of kick-off, with 0-0 at 16/1. Both prices were big given the circumstances, including Jose Mourinho's involvement, the Blues' recent defensive record and a fairly consistent trend over the Premier League era of 'Big Six' clashes being rather anticlimactic.

But what I'm most interested in now, is what we learned from it - especially about Chelsea.

Frank Lampard's team have scored at will this season. They hit Barnsley for six, put four past Crystal Palace, Sheffield United and Krasnodar, and have scored three goals on five separate occasions.

With hundreds of millions of pounds of attacking talent, more depth in that department than any club in the top flight, they are expected to score plenty; hence that 5/4 under 2.5 goals price.

But it simply hasn't been the case when the Blues have come up against good teams this season. They have only one goal to show for five meetings with Liverpool, Spurs (twice), Manchester United and Sevilla.

For now, Lampard's men are flat-track bullies.

Far from warranting its own section, I do want to give a mention to Timo Werner, who will be key to Chelsea's hopes of cracking that goal drought against the best teams. In fact, the German has the only goal they've managed so far, a 20-yard drilled effort against Spurs in the Carabao Cup.

He hasn't quite set the world alight just yet following his £52m move from RB Leipzig in the summer, scoring four league goals, a more impressive eight in all competitions.

But what really caught the eye against Tottenham on Sunday was his consistent attempt to beat the offside trap. The flag was raised three times, taking him to 18 offsides for club and country this term. It was the fourth time he has attracted the attention of the assistant on two or more occasions.

In last season's Bundesliga he was caught offside 43 times in 34 appearances en route to bagging 28 goals.

I'm mentioning all of this for a couple of reasons. The first, is that should you like to play the stats markets then Werner is as good as anyone to back when it comes to offsides, especially multiple ones.

But mainly it's that more goals are bound to come for him soon as his team-mates begin to get on the same wavelength. Almost consider those offsides as a barometer for Werner's likelihood of scoring.

Right now, I'd say the shade under 4/1 on him breaking the deadlock against Leeds on Saturday offers better value than the 5/1 for him to score a brace.

Have a pop against Pickford

I know that digging one in at Jordan Pickford has been quite a popular pastime over the past 18 months, and it must be said that much of that criticism has been warranted.

As Leeds winger Raphinha arrowed in a 25-yard shot that never looked like it really had a right to go in, I couldn't help but feel as though I was having deja vu. And sadly for Pickford, the stats back that up.

It was the seventh time in 17 matches for club and country this season that the Everton keeper has been beaten by a shot from outside the box; no goalkeeper has conceded more than his four in the top flight.

The England man is already halfway to matching the eight he let in from distance in the Premier League last term, and he has only made nine appearances.

Unfortunately Burnley, the Toffees' weekend opponents, are not a team renowned for scoring spectacular goals, so this is one to make a note of for future weeks.

But if Sean Dyche's side start shooting from anywhere and everywhere, then you know he reads this column.

Or someone at the club reads the same stats pages I do...

Don't mark your card

Short and sweet here - keep backing under 30 booking points in 'run-of-the-mill' games, that is matches not involving either local rivals, or teams battling for a similar place in the table.

Even when one team has a terrible disciplinary record, it's still been paying out.

Manchester City v Burnley, Brighton v Liverpool and Leicester v Fulham - the latter was a tentative one based on them both being card happy teams - were my suggestions last week.

No cards, three cards, two cards respectively was the result. So the match at the Amex didn't work out, but there were clearly extenuating circumstances. When Brighton were awarded a VAR penalty deep in stoppage-time, Liverpool goalkeeper Alisson was booked for dissent; killer.

But even with that loser, it is five from six over the past fortnight - definitely one to stick with.

Burnley v Everton and Manchester City v Fulham are two I like, and really Sheffield United v Leicester should be too, but I am undecided given the Blades' growing desperation as they still remain winless.

West Ham v Manchester United I just don't like because of the match-up. In theory it should make our shortlist, although the Hammers probably are a direct rival of United's this season given their respective starts; the table doesn't lie.

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