Our Premier League Punting Pointers for matchday six

Premier League Punting Pointers: Free football betting tips, stats and trends for matchday six

By Joe Townsend

Football

Thu October 22, 2020 · 4y ago

Ahead of the sixth round of Premier League fixtures, Joe Townsend has some punting pointers based on the trends we've seen so far season.

It was far from a boring first weekend of action following a two-week international break, but look past the late drama in several matches and there's significant evidence that things could be returning to some kind of normality.

There are, of course, trends that we've identified in previous weeks that have sprung up in part as a result of this bizarre, unique season, with its limited recovery time and pre-season, unprecedented fixture congestion and lack of fans, and we should stick with those for as long as they keep paying off.

But there were definitely signs that we could be moving towards a more normal Premier League again, or at least one more closely resembling the Project Restart matches. You just have to look closely...

Goals drying up

West Ham's remarkable fightback, another defensive capitulation by Chelsea and a late flurry from Manchester United I believe left us with a false impression that the top flight was continuing to operate in the madcap way it did during the opening month of the campaign. In reality more than 60% of the weekend's 27 goals came from those three matches.

There was an average of 3.8 goals per game scored across the opening four rounds of fixtures with a big drop for matchday five - its average of 2.7 was exactly the same as 2019/20's full-season figure. Only 12 of the first 38 fixtures this term saw under 2.5 goals whereas six of last weekend's 10 games did, much closer to last season's overall figure of 48%.

What's more important for our purposes is that the matches we would ordinarily anticipate as low-scoring affairs turned out that way, something that certainly hadn't been the case up to now in 2020/21. I've written several times over the past few weeks that we needed to put the unders away for a while; now I think it's safe to bring them back.

Another encouraging statistic from matchday five in terms of normal service resuming was the five draws we saw, including our first 0-0 of the campaign. Just 8% of games before the international break finished with the points shared, down from 24% in 2019/20. The draw was something I suggested backing a fortnight ago, based on a combination of factors, so those results were pleasing from that perspective.

Back to the under 2.5 goals angle, and the upcoming weekend may not be bursting with as many potential low-scorers as the previous, but Aston Villa v Leeds, Fulham v Crystal Palace, Wolves v Newcastle and Brighton v West Brom do stick out.

Every fixture is odds-against, with that price available across the board for Villa v Leeds and Brighton v West Brom. Back in the good old days of Premier League matches actually kicking off simultaneously (imagine that) it's a four-fold I'd certainly be backing at 10/1. But with each match on separate days between Friday and Monday it's just no fun is it.

Move over Wolves... or maybe not

Raul Jimenez celebrates scoring for Wolves at Leeds

One tipping casualty, amongst many others, of the Premier League's eccentric start to the season has been the reliance on a Wolves team that has been so consistent in two markets for so long.

Going back to the opening weekend of the season, and I was stung by Wolves scoring twice in the first five minutes at Sheffield United to win 2-0 - it killed under 1.5 goals and half-time 0-0 bets.

Nuno's team then lost 3-1 (2-0 at HT) to Manchester City and 4-0 (1-0 at HT) to West Ham in successive games. Any lingering hope I had to bring back unders and a goalless opening half looked dead.

But two 1-0 wins in a row, over Fulham and Leeds, both courtesy of second-half strikes, have given me real encouragement that the old Wolves are back.

I'm not the only person that's noticed their tendency to come on strong after the break either. While Conor Coady's post-match interview with Sky Sports' Monday Night Football team was memorable for just how well he came across, a nerd like me picked cup on the Wolves captain's answer about their tactics. Specifically talking about Leeds, he said Wolves wanted to spend the first half trying to size them up and work things out.

That was telling to me as it doesn't look like they're going to change any time soon.

For context eight of Wolves' final 13 matches of 2019/20 were 0-0 at half-time, with four of the five games that didn't make it seeing goals scored after the 41st minute - so they were pretty darn close.

They finished third in the under 2.5 goals table with 63%, and 12 of their final 13 games in all competitions fell into that bracket.

Originally I'd made a note to do this section on Sheffield United. Against Fulham on Sunday they reached half-time goalless for a fourth successive match, and delivered a sixth under 2.5 goals contest from seven fixtures in all competitions.

In 2018/19 Chris Wilder's side were league leaders for under 2.5 goals at a mammoth 71%, so that really hasn't gone away.

I'm mentioning these things to point out a trend rather than as a short-term punt to win a quick buck, so it's not something to toss away if the Blades get hammered at Liverpool or Wolves thrash Newcastle this weekend.

Stick it in the notebook.

Make money from Kane and Son

Heung-min Son and Harry Kane are on fire for Tottenham

It can't have escaped anyone's attention that Harry Kane and Heung-min Son have all of a sudden developed a telepathic understanding.

In total, they've now combined for 28 Premier League goals - the third most in the division's history. They're just one shy of Arsenal's Thierry Henry/Robert Pires double act and Manchester City's Sergio Aguero/David Silva pairing. It's another eight to draw level with Chelsea's lethal Didier Drogba/Frank Lampard duo.

What's so interesting about the Kane/Son combo is the freshness to it, and improved returns as a result, despite them playing together for five years. For Kane to suddenly create four goals for Son against Southampton having only provided two assists full stop in 2019/20 could easily have been written off as an anomaly, but they have combined four further times since.

A third of the league goals they have combined for since August 2015 have come in the last month; something has changed.

Tottenham boss Jose Mourinho has undoubtedly tweaked Kane's role, dropping the England captain a little deeper to make the most of his undoubted skill as a creative provider.

With Spurs not in Premier League action until they travel to Burnley on Monday, there aren't yet prices on Son assisting Kane and vice-versa but it has to be something worth looking at this season rather than restricting it to simple pub chat after it's happened week on week.

From the handover

Everton celebrate defender Michael Keane's goal against Liverpool - his third already this season

There's no sense in picking things out week to week, and forgetting about them when they consistently deliver.

We are fine tuning Leeds to make 20+ tackles and I sat it out in the preview for their meeting with Wolves on the basis of their opponents 3-4-3 formation. That consistency is there, as against any team with a back four the Whites have made it easily.

Take a chance on defenders is something we've been preaching ALL season. For whatever reason, defenders are struggling to deal with their counterparts, especially at set-pieces. When the international break arrived there had been a 40% increase in Premier League goals this season with a perfectly proportionate increase in goals from defenders.

Things may have slowed down in overall terms last weekend, but five defenders still managed to find the net - more than the average of 4.25 goals by defenders across the opening four weekends.

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